The True North - Canadian federal election, 2007

[MAINEiac4434]

After a brief hiatus, The True North is back!

Prime Minister Layton had a turbulent first term

Information on the Layton Ministry can be found in the master thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261552.msg5625544#msg5625544

New Democratic Party / Nouveau Parti démocratique - Jack Layton - The first NDP government in Canadian history saw the economy slow and their social reforms - such as a reform of teacher tenure purported to help students  - be wildly panned by the public. Layton is further seen as too willing to negotiate with sovereigntists in Quebec, as he failed to pass a renegotiated Meech Lake Accord, and saw marijuana legalization and electoral reform pushed to the back burner before being dropped completely, angering the activist wing of the party. Still, the NDP maintain a decent polling lead, due to the Liberals' lurch center and Stockwell Day's hard-right leadership of the Opposition. Layton was mostly successful on foreign affairs, renegotiating several trade deals and pulling Canadian troops out of Afghanistan, before refusing to join President McCain's war in eastern Africa. He promises to continue to oppose American foreign policy in his next term.

Reform Party of Canada / Parti réformiste du Canada - Stockwell Day - Day has ratcheted up the hard-right rhetoric. The young-earth creationist has moved his party precipitously close to the Christian Right, and has largely torpedoed attempts to bring ex-Progressive Conservative supporters into the fold, despite the likes of Peter MacKay and Elsie Wayne standing as Reform candidates. He remains staunchly opposed to abortion and same-sex marriage, and promises to repeal the Copps-era anti-discrimination bill that the NDP beefed up. He's also drawn Reform away from the Green Conservatism of the Preston Manning years.

Liberal Party of Canada / Parti libéral du Canada - Ken Dryden - Dryden has taken the party back to the center, away from the social democracy of the Copps years. The former NHL goalie's strategy is based around attracting the center and left of what remains of the Progressive Conservative Party - indeed, two of the three remaining PC MPs openly explored crossing the floor to the Liberals before ultimately staying put. Despite spending his entire NHL career in Montreal, Dryden has a poor grasp of French, the cause of much consternation in Liberal head office.

Bloc Québécois - Francine Lalonde - Lalonde's left-wing independence movement gained ten seats in the election of 2002, and became the second largest party in Quebec, surpassing the Liberals. She's hoping to capitalize on the failure of Meech Lake II to make the Bloc the largest party in Quebec - and hopefully force a sovereignty referendum from Ottawa.

Progressive Conservative Party of Canada / Parti progressiste-conservateur du Canada - André Bachand - the rump PCs - just three MPs, all in Quebec, at dissolution - are only running candidates east of Manitoba, hoping that Stockwell Day's ultraconservatism scares those on the center-right in the east of the country back into the blue column. But there is little hope, now, with the Liberals moving to the center to make a direct appeal to moderate ex-PC easterners. Bachand's two fellow PCs - Diane St-Jacques and David Price - represent the left-wing of the party, socially liberal and fiscally moderate. Bachand is more conservative, but the party's social conservative wing has largely been swept away. The PCs are now a purely centrist party - conservative in name only. What conservatives turned off by Day will do at the polling place is anyone's guess.

Three days. For the first time, Reform will be represented by the CPC in my 2015-based simulator (http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/canada-simulator.html). Previously, I had used the Greens to simulate Reform results. I will now use the Greens for the PCs.

[Lumine]

I stubbornly vote Progressive Conservative.

[SATW]

Reform.

[Kingpoleon]

I wish I felt comfortable voting PC, but it is imperative that the NDP and Reform do not win.

[DC Al Fine]

Reform

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Liberal

[Kingpoleon]

Judging by the poll now, I wish I'd voted PC.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here's hoping for the dawn of a new Day!

[Kingpoleon]

We need to vote on a Liberal-PC merger.

[MAINEiac4434]

Poll closes midnight tonight.

[MAINEiac4434]

Canadian Federal Election, 2007

The Prime Minister celebrating his surprising landslide.

New Democratic Party: 226 (-1)
Reform Party of Canada: 69 (+19)
Liberal Party of Canada: 41 (+11)
Bloc Québécois: 1 (-27)
Progressive Conservative Party: 0 (-3)

The quiet landslide.

While Jack Layton and the New Democrats did not distinguish themselves in government. With a government caucus full of rookie MPs, the party failed to fully implement its platform in its first five years in government.

But they had the benefit of being led by a ferocious campaigner. Quick-witted and genial, Jack Layton went all over Canada to bring his message to everyone in the country. He outperformed Stockwell Day and Ken Dryden in the leaders debates, bested Francine Lalonde in the traditional Bloc heartlands, and on election day, lost only one seat, maintaining a large majority of Reform.

Reform won 69 seats, a gain of 19, mostly due to the Progressive Conservatives not running any candidates outside of the east of the country. The Reformers finally broke through east of Manitoba, winning a handful of seats in Quebec and Ontario (but far behind the Liberals and NDP in both provinces), but remained shut-out in the Maritimes. Seeking a new mandate as party leader, Stockwell Day resigned on election night but announced a campaign to succeed himself.

The Bloc lost all but one seat, held by Francine Lalonde herself. She resigned as party leader. The dream of an independent Quebec was growing dimmer with each passing day, as Quebecers overwhelmingly backed left-leaning federalist parties: first the Copps Liberals, and now the Layton New Democrats.

Dryden proved to be a boring an unexcited campaigner. He struggled in Quebec due to his lack of fluency in French. Still, the party gained 11 seats, mostly at the expense of the Bloc. He too resigned that night.

What had started in 1993 was completed in 2007. The Progressive Conservatives were completely wiped out, their last three ridings in Quebec all lost to Liberals. For the remaining party members, a referendum would be held with four options for the party's future.