Kirsten Gillibrand won't run for President in 2020 per The Hill

[136or142]

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/331475-gillibrand-rules-out-2020-presidential-run-report

Could be another of those I'm running so I'd better say I'm not running things.

[Figueira]

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I'm not convinced.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Mattress Girl baggage would hurt her badly.

[Mister Mets]

At this point, it's a meaningless denial.

[Suburbia]

At this point, it's a meaningless denial.

[Crumpets]

Mattress Girl baggage would hurt her badly.

?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I think she winds up boxed out by Kamala Harris.

[Green Line]

Good.  It's not her turn.

[Mr. Morden]

Here is is her denial in context:

http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2017/05/gillibrand-on-2020-im-ruling-it-out/

I wouldn’t call this “meaningless”.  Even though her seat is up next year, she could have phrased her denial in a more open-ended way, as Elizabeth Warren has done with her carefully worded non-denial of presidential ambition.  So I do dock Gillibrand a few points on the “likelihoold-to-run-o-meter”.

But not that many points.  Her denial doesn’t square with what the media is reporting about her actions, re: her recent national media offensive, her seemingly calculated Trump Cabinet obstructionism, her speaking at the first “cattle call” in two weeks with CAP’s Ideas Conference, where she’ll join several other 2020 candidates, and the NYT reporting just yesterday that she’s “reaching out to national donors”:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=233345.msg5630688#msg5630688

All of this points toward a presidential run.  Or at least, laying the groundwork for a potential run.

So I think Predicit is greatly overreacting by downgrading her chances of running all the way to 21%:

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5119/Will-Kirsten-Gillibrand-run-for-president-in-2020

That’s just silly.  Stacked up against the moves I just talked about in the earlier paragraph, this one comment spoken two years before most of the candidates will make formal declaration, isn’t nearly significant enough to slice her chances of running in half.

[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand's denial in the face of all of the counter-evidence suggesting that she has presidential ambition reminds me of Booker's denial back in January, when he said "I am not open to being president":

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/21/politics/cory-booker-president-2020/

Most people didn't take that comment seriously.  And in fact, a few weeks later he was asked again, and gave a more ambiguous non-denial that time.

[MAINEiac4434]

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I'm not convinced.

LOL she basically just announced she's running for president with that.

[Mr. Morden]

Also (this is my last post on this for now, I promise), Klobuchar will be in Iowa next weekend, so she'll surely be asked this same question.  She also faces reelection next year, so has to walk the same line of pretending that her plans are to serve her full term.  I'm curious to see how she answers the question.

[henster]

Cuomo is obviously a big factor here, I don't know their relationship but I have a feeling they won't run against each other.

[Zioneer]

You cannot trust "I am not running for president" declarations until the actual start of the primaries.

[Lachi]

You cannot trust "I am not running for president" declarations until the actual start of the primaries.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I personally like her. She has beliefs, unlike Trump, Clinton, Booker, Paul,  etc. but I agree it is not her time.

[Cory]

Mattress Girl baggage would hurt her badly.

?

A woman named Emma Sulkowicz got some guy railroaded on fabricated allegations of sexual assault that were utterly confirmed to be fake later via post-facto text messages. She was a total nutjob and even self-made a porno where she "re-enacts" her "rape". She even said if you watch it for "the wrong reasons" you are raping her (not kidding).

The thing is every SJW ever came out in total support of her and refuse to admit they were wrong after the text messages came out, including the National Organization for Women and one Senator Kirsten Gillibrand.

[Famous Mortimer]

She's running, although this is a poor start to her campaign.

People hate these kind of denials. They are one of the main reasons people don't trust politicians in general. Lying has literally become standard operating procedure for someone running for president.

You think at least one politician would be smart enough to see that and just say "yeah, I'm probably going to run but it's too early to start campaigning" 3 years before the election. It would be an easy way to get media attention and seem like a straight shooting maverick without actually doing anything substantively radical.

[Mr. Morden]

You think at least one politician would be smart enough to see that and just say "yeah, I'm probably going to run but it's too early to start campaigning" 3 years before the election. It would be an easy way to get media attention and seem like a straight shooting maverick without actually doing anything substantively radical.

Martin O'Malley comes close to saying that, as he just says "maybe" or "I just might" when people ask him if he's going to run in 2020.

But he's out of office, and so doesn't have any constituents to answer to.  The candidates who are in office and plan to run for reelection next year are in a different situation, because they have to pretend that they're probably not going to run for president.  Even if they're safe bets for reelection like Gillibrand, admitting that your plan is to get reelected, then spend about 3 or 4 months of your term as a regular Senator before skipping town to campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire for a year, and then (ideally, should you win the nomination and then get elected president) spending another 8 months or so campaigning nationally before being elected prez and then finally giving up your Senate seat....it's just a bad look to be too open about that.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Mattress Girl baggage would hurt her badly.

?

A woman named Emma Sulkowicz got some guy railroaded on fabricated allegations of sexual assault that were utterly confirmed to be fake later via post-facto text messages. She was a total nutjob and even self-made a porno where she "re-enacts" her "rape". She even said if you watch it for "the wrong reasons" you are raping her (not kidding).

The thing is every SJW ever came out in total support of her and refuse to admit they were wrong after the text messages came out, including the National Organization for Women and one Senator Kirsten Gillibrand.

Thank you. I was going to post something to this effect but got sidetracked and never did.

[cvparty]

currently she's ruling it out

[Famous Mortimer]

Mattress Girl baggage would hurt her badly.

?

A woman named Emma Sulkowicz got some guy railroaded on fabricated allegations of sexual assault that were utterly confirmed to be fake later via post-facto text messages. She was a total nutjob and even self-made a porno where she "re-enacts" her "rape". She even said if you watch it for "the wrong reasons" you are raping her (not kidding).

The thing is every SJW ever came out in total support of her and refuse to admit they were wrong after the text messages came out, including the National Organization for Women and one Senator Kirsten Gillibrand.

Thank you. I was going to post something to this effect but got sidetracked and never did.

This will have about as much effect on Gillibrand's campaign as Rev. Wright did on Obama's.

[Tintrlvr]

Mattress Girl baggage would hurt her badly.

?

A woman named Emma Sulkowicz got some guy railroaded on fabricated allegations of sexual assault that were utterly confirmed to be fake later via post-facto text messages. She was a total nutjob and even self-made a porno where she "re-enacts" her "rape". She even said if you watch it for "the wrong reasons" you are raping her (not kidding).

The thing is every SJW ever came out in total support of her and refuse to admit they were wrong after the text messages came out, including the National Organization for Women and one Senator Kirsten Gillibrand.

Thank you. I was going to post something to this effect but got sidetracked and never did.

This will have about as much effect on Gillibrand's campaign as Rev. Wright did on Obama's.

It's also an extremely biased presentation of the facts. The texts cast some doubt on Sulkowicz's story, probably enough for a criminal "reasonable doubt" standard but hardly anywhere close to enough to outright dismiss her as a faker, unlike some of the more clear-cut cases like the Duke lacrosse story.

Anyway, if anyone wants more details: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbia_University_rape_controversy

The texts referenced are covered briefly in the "Facebook messages" section.

Regardless, this would be an incredibly stupid non-controversy if Gillibrand did run.

[Cory]

It's also an extremely biased presentation of the facts. The texts cast some doubt on Sulkowicz's story, probably enough for a criminal "reasonable doubt" standard but hardly anywhere close to enough to outright dismiss her as a faker, unlike some of the more clear-cut cases like the Duke lacrosse story.

Yeah but by that metric anything short of a verbal admission of lying isn't enough. I mean he (the accused) was even cleared by the "preponderance of evidence" standard at the University hearing.

It's like if a former Kulak was arrested by the NKVD in 1937 and put on trial for treason and counter-revolutionary activity against the Soviet State and found not guilty. I mean c'mon.

It's hyperbolic I know but you get my point.