Tarrant County, Texas

[TML]

I've noticed that in Texas, the largest urban areas (and their associated counties) have been won by Democratic presidential candidates over the last three elections, but one exception stood out: Tarrant County, home to Fort Worth and Arlington. This county is the third most populous county in Texas, while its two major cities are the fifth and seventh largest cities in Texas, respectively. However, unlike Harris (Houston), Bexar (San Antonio), Travis (Austin), Dallas, and El Paso, Tarrant County has stuck with Republicans. This has me wondering:

-Why haven't the Democrats been able to flip this county (unlike the other counties mentioned above)?
-Are the Democrats currently on track to flipping this county within the next 10-20 years?

[Young Moderate Republican]

Insight from a Tarrant County resident. Yes Democrats win the inner city areas here. The problem is, Dems get severely blown out in most suburban areas, which are a larger percentage of Tarrant County than the other urban counties. This is why Dems lose the state quite handily. The suburbs don't allow Dems to take the urban counties by the 70-30 margins they need to win statewide (let alone win Tarrant County). Fort Worth is also home to the stockyard and rodeo scene. Fort Worth and Arlington have Republican mayors. Dems have to figure out how to get suburban whites (and a surprisingly large minority of Hispanics) to quit voting like their rural counterparts if they want to flip it. Also don't forget about the populous wealthy suburbs in Collin and Denton (college area that Republicans win as well) counties either... Texas won't flip until these places show significant signs of it. As for when it will flip? It'll be over a decade, barring any epic GOP meltdown. After then, it's hard to tell. They have an 8 point gap to make up in an urban county that's a bit whiter than most others... And these are southern whites we're talking about. They aren't swing voters like whites in the north can be.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Insight from a Tarrant County resident. Yes Democrats win the inner city areas here. The problem is, Dems get severely blown out in most suburban areas, which are a larger percentage of Tarrant County than the other urban counties. This is why Dems lose the state quite handily. The suburbs don't allow Dems to take the urban counties by the 70-30 margins they need to win statewide (let alone win Tarrant County). Fort Worth is also home to the stockyard and rodeo scene. Fort Worth and Arlington have Republican mayors. Dems have to figure out how to get suburban whites (and a surprisingly large minority of Hispanics) to quit voting like their rural counterparts if they want to flip it. Also don't forget about the populous wealthy suburbs in Collin and Denton (college area that Republicans win as well) counties either... Texas won't flip until these places show significant signs of it. As for when it will flip? It'll be over a decade, barring any epic GOP meltdown. After then, it's hard to tell. They have an 8 point gap to make up in an urban county that's a bit whiter than most others... And these are southern whites we're talking about. They aren't swing voters like whites in the north can be.

High end suburban whites weren't a swing demographic in the North either, 50 years ago. Their children were a different story and many of their grandchildren were no longer swing voters, because they had become base Democratic voters (places like Westchester, NY).

The two factors at play, will be how much younger members of this demographic, are less Republican and how high and how democratic the minority vote is. That will determine if or when the states in the sunbelt becomes swing and then Democratic leaning.

The numbers are pretty bad generation gap wise in SC, GA and MS.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Yeah (also live in Tarrant county) they have often said here amongst our GOP that if Tarrant county falls so does Texas in GOP terms, it is the one stubborn block that really stops the changeover

[Adam Griffin]

Since 2000, Tarrant has largely been a bellwether in terms of TX's final margin - especially since 2008. Tarrant's margin has been within one-half of a point of the state's in the three past elections.

Code:

YR	TX	TARRANT	DIFF
2000	21.32	23.96		2.64
2004	22.87	25.38		2.51
2008	11.75	11.70		-0.05
2012	15.78	15.69		-0.09
2016	8.99	8.60		-0.39

Yet Tarrant really hasn't had a breakout moment yet like many rapidly-trending R-to-D suburban counties do, where they suddenly lurch much further to the left in one or more elections than the state as a whole. Part of this may be because such a huge percentage of TX lives in suburban areas, so maybe it's irrelevant, but...if suburban attitudes of Trump as they were last year largely hold - or get worse - then you very well may see Tarrant flip in 2020.

Look at counties in my state - Cobb and Gwinnett in particular - for an example of what could happen, with particular emphasis on the difference in margins between the state and the county.

Code:

YR	GA	COBB		DIFF
2000	11.69	22.90		11.21
2004	16.59	24.82		8.23
2008	5.20	9.41		4.21
2012	7.80	12.42		4.62
2016	5.09	-2.16		-7.25	

Code:

YR	GA	GWINNETT	DIFF
2000	11.69	31.56		19.87
2004	16.59	32.22		15.63
2008	5.20	10.21		5.01
2012	7.80	9.20		1.4
2016	5.09	-5.79		-10.88

Whether it's one that's a bit more gradual/uniform over cycles or one that gradually shifts while occasionally having waves of massive shifts, usually there is suddenly one or more lurches in suburban R-to-D trending counties. I don't think we've seen that happen in Tarrant yet. My money would be on Tarrant being a bit more like Cobb than Gwinnett. Still, you only need one more moderately-sized suburban-style swing in Tarrant to flip it, whether TX as a whole moves along with it or not.

Yeah (also live in Tarrant county) they have often said here amongst our GOP that if Tarrant county falls so does Texas in GOP terms, it is the one stubborn block that really stops the changeover

See my post above; the parts referring to Cobb/Gwinnett are relevant. No sane person before 2016 thought GA would remain GOP with both Cobb and Gwinnett flipping, and yet it happened rather abruptly and massively without really threatening the GOP's statewide dominance.

[TDAS04]

How Republican is Fort Worth itself?  Did Bush carry the city proper?

[Young Moderate Republican]

How Republican is Fort Worth itself?  Did Bush carry the city proper?

It depends on the precinct. Democrats don't sweep Fort Worth city limits entirely if that's what you're asking.

I would include some helpful links, but I'm too new here to do that. The Texas Tribune ("Can Texas Republicans hold America’s reddest large urban county?") and Fort Worth Star Telegram ("2016 election: Division in a key Texas Republican stronghold?") wrote excellent articles detailing all of this.

[Young Moderate Republican]

Insight from a Tarrant County resident. Yes Democrats win the inner city areas here. The problem is, Dems get severely blown out in most suburban areas, which are a larger percentage of Tarrant County than the other urban counties. This is why Dems lose the state quite handily. The suburbs don't allow Dems to take the urban counties by the 70-30 margins they need to win statewide (let alone win Tarrant County). Fort Worth is also home to the stockyard and rodeo scene. Fort Worth and Arlington have Republican mayors. Dems have to figure out how to get suburban whites (and a surprisingly large minority of Hispanics) to quit voting like their rural counterparts if they want to flip it. Also don't forget about the populous wealthy suburbs in Collin and Denton (college area that Republicans win as well) counties either... Texas won't flip until these places show significant signs of it. As for when it will flip? It'll be over a decade, barring any epic GOP meltdown. After then, it's hard to tell. They have an 8 point gap to make up in an urban county that's a bit whiter than most others... And these are southern whites we're talking about. They aren't swing voters like whites in the north can be.

High end suburban whites weren't a swing demographic in the North either, 50 years ago. Their children were a different story and many of their grandchildren were no longer swing voters, because they had become base Democratic voters (places like Westchester, NY).

The two factors at play, will be how much younger members of this demographic, are less Republican and how high and how democratic the minority vote is. That will determine if or when the states in the sunbelt becomes swing and then Democratic leaning.

The numbers are pretty bad generation gap wise in SC, GA and MS.

I probably should have specified the midwest. I was thinking Iowa, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin type of states (which are significantly north of me)... and the possible addition of New Hampshire and Maine in the northeast. I was also referring mainly to whites in general on that last part. Not necessarily wealthy suburbanites. My apologies

[KingSweden]

How Republican is Fort Worth itself?  Did Bush carry the city proper?

It depends on the precinct. Democrats don't sweep Fort Worth city limits entirely if that's what you're asking.

I would include some helpful links, but I'm too new here to do that. The Texas Tribune ("Can Texas Republicans hold America’s reddest large urban county?") and Fort Worth Star Telegram ("2016 election: Division in a key Texas Republican stronghold?") wrote excellent articles detailing all of this.

Welcome to the forum, BTW

[Young Moderate Republican]

How Republican is Fort Worth itself?  Did Bush carry the city proper?

It depends on the precinct. Democrats don't sweep Fort Worth city limits entirely if that's what you're asking.

I would include some helpful links, but I'm too new here to do that. The Texas Tribune ("Can Texas Republicans hold America’s reddest large urban county?") and Fort Worth Star Telegram ("2016 election: Division in a key Texas Republican stronghold?") wrote excellent articles detailing all of this.

Welcome to the forum, BTW

Why thank you kind person!

[Young Moderate Republican]

Since 2000, Tarrant has largely been a bellwether in terms of TX's final margin - especially since 2008. Tarrant's margin has been within one-half of a point of the state's in the three past elections.

Code:

YR	TX	TARRANT	DIFF
2000	21.32	23.96		2.64
2004	22.87	25.38		2.51
2008	11.75	11.70		-0.05
2012	15.78	15.69		-0.09
2016	8.99	8.60		-0.39

Yet Tarrant really hasn't had a breakout moment yet like many rapidly-trending R-to-D suburban counties do, where they suddenly lurch much further to the left in one or more elections than the state as a whole. Part of this may be because such a huge percentage of TX lives in suburban areas, so maybe it's irrelevant, but...if suburban attitudes of Trump as they were last year largely hold - or get worse - then you very well may see Tarrant flip in 2020.

Look at counties in my state - Cobb and Gwinnett in particular - for an example of what could happen, with particular emphasis on the difference in margins between the state and the county.

Code:

YR	GA	COBB		DIFF
2000	11.69	22.90		11.21
2004	16.59	24.82		8.23
2008	5.20	9.41		4.21
2012	7.80	12.42		4.62
2016	5.09	-2.16		-7.25	

Code:

YR	GA	GWINNETT	DIFF
2000	11.69	31.56		19.87
2004	16.59	32.22		15.63
2008	5.20	10.21		5.01
2012	7.80	9.20		1.4
2016	5.09	-5.79		-10.88

Whether it's one that's a bit more gradual/uniform over cycles or one that gradually shifts while occasionally having waves of massive shifts, usually there is suddenly one or more lurches in suburban R-to-D trending counties. I don't think we've seen that happen in Tarrant yet. My money would be on Tarrant being a bit more like Cobb than Gwinnett. Still, you only need one more moderately-sized suburban-style swing in Tarrant to flip it, whether TX as a whole moves along with it or not.

Yeah (also live in Tarrant county) they have often said here amongst our GOP that if Tarrant county falls so does Texas in GOP terms, it is the one stubborn block that really stops the changeover

See my post above; the parts referring to Cobb/Gwinnett are relevant. No sane person before 2016 thought GA would remain GOP with both Cobb and Gwinnett flipping, and yet it happened rather abruptly and massively without really threatening the GOP's statewide dominance.

Collin County (Dallas suburbs) would be a better comparison in size and wealth. It's almost entirely suburban and has a population of just under a million people, rather than 1.8 million in Tarrant. Romney won it by around 31 points in 2012, but Trump won it by only about 17 in 2016.  This actually represented a significant lurch as opposed to a steady trend. Republicans have pulled around 60-65% of the vote here going back to 1996 (with spikes into the low 70s for favorite son George W. Bush). Trump got 55%. It's hard to tell if it's unique to Trump or stays that way. The truth is likely somewhere in between.

[Tekken_Guy]

1. The "Urban" part of the county makes up a much smaller amount of it than Dallas.

2. It has a lower percentage of minority voters than the other major counties.

3. Dems don't do well in suburban areas besides Austin, although Hillary has generally outperformed Obama here.

Dems need to wait for the county to diversity/urbanize and/or swing the white suburban vote into their corner to win Tarrant. They've had Travis and the Rio Grande counties for ages, it worked for Harris, Dallas, and Bexar with Obama, it worked for Fort Bend with Hillary, and it could very well be the 2020 election that flips Tarrant.

[Skill and Chance]

Insight from a Tarrant County resident. Yes Democrats win the inner city areas here. The problem is, Dems get severely blown out in most suburban areas, which are a larger percentage of Tarrant County than the other urban counties. This is why Dems lose the state quite handily. The suburbs don't allow Dems to take the urban counties by the 70-30 margins they need to win statewide (let alone win Tarrant County). Fort Worth is also home to the stockyard and rodeo scene. Fort Worth and Arlington have Republican mayors. Dems have to figure out how to get suburban whites (and a surprisingly large minority of Hispanics) to quit voting like their rural counterparts if they want to flip it. Also don't forget about the populous wealthy suburbs in Collin and Denton (college area that Republicans win as well) counties either... Texas won't flip until these places show significant signs of it. As for when it will flip? It'll be over a decade, barring any epic GOP meltdown. After then, it's hard to tell. They have an 8 point gap to make up in an urban county that's a bit whiter than most others... And these are southern whites we're talking about. They aren't swing voters like whites in the north can be.

High end suburban whites weren't a swing demographic in the North either, 50 years ago. Their children were a different story and many of their grandchildren were no longer swing voters, because they had become base Democratic voters (places like Westchester, NY).

The two factors at play, will be how much younger members of this demographic, are less Republican and how high and how democratic the minority vote is. That will determine if or when the states in the sunbelt becomes swing and then Democratic leaning.

The numbers are pretty bad generation gap wise in SC, GA and MS.

I'm not really convinced about MS or especially SC (retiree influx) because I think the black vote will moderate with time, but GA (in 5ish years) and TX (in 10ish years) look quite precarious and LA could even get caught up in this in 15 years or so.  Imagine JBE numbers in the NOLA/Baton Rouge suburbs eventually being the norm in statewide elections.  NC I think will remain no worse than a toss up for Republicans for a long time.  There is enough rural vote left to convert there.  MS is interesting because the rural white vote is already so maxed out, but the state doesn't really have any large cities to drive a Dem trend.

[Young Moderate Republican]

Insight from a Tarrant County resident. Yes Democrats win the inner city areas here. The problem is, Dems get severely blown out in most suburban areas, which are a larger percentage of Tarrant County than the other urban counties. This is why Dems lose the state quite handily. The suburbs don't allow Dems to take the urban counties by the 70-30 margins they need to win statewide (let alone win Tarrant County). Fort Worth is also home to the stockyard and rodeo scene. Fort Worth and Arlington have Republican mayors. Dems have to figure out how to get suburban whites (and a surprisingly large minority of Hispanics) to quit voting like their rural counterparts if they want to flip it. Also don't forget about the populous wealthy suburbs in Collin and Denton (college area that Republicans win as well) counties either... Texas won't flip until these places show significant signs of it. As for when it will flip? It'll be over a decade, barring any epic GOP meltdown. After then, it's hard to tell. They have an 8 point gap to make up in an urban county that's a bit whiter than most others... And these are southern whites we're talking about. They aren't swing voters like whites in the north can be.

High end suburban whites weren't a swing demographic in the North either, 50 years ago. Their children were a different story and many of their grandchildren were no longer swing voters, because they had become base Democratic voters (places like Westchester, NY).

The two factors at play, will be how much younger members of this demographic, are less Republican and how high and how democratic the minority vote is. That will determine if or when the states in the sunbelt becomes swing and then Democratic leaning.

The numbers are pretty bad generation gap wise in SC, GA and MS.

I'm not really convinced about MS or especially SC (retiree influx) because I think the black vote will moderate with time, but GA (in 5ish years) and TX (in 10ish years) look quite precarious and LA could even get caught up in this in 15 years or so.  Imagine JBE numbers in the NOLA/Baton Rouge suburbs eventually being the norm in statewide elections.  NC I think will remain no worse than a toss up for Republicans for a long time.  There is enough rural vote left to convert there.  MS is interesting because the rural white vote is already so maxed out, but the state doesn't really have any large cities to drive a Dem trend.

I'm the opposite. I think Hispanics will even out politically over time once the Trump's of the world are gone and they continue to grow as a share of the population. In Texas, they aren't monolithic. A good GOP candidate can take 45% of the Hispanic vote here. Our Republican governor won Hispanic men by a point. That allowed him to beat Wendy Davis by 20 points statewide. Thats why I don't believe Texas turning blue is a sure thing. Whites + swing voting or GOP leaning Hispanics will continue to be a majority of the population for quite a while longer. Ted Cruz won Harris County... That's Houston... The most populous county in the state and third most populous in the U.S. Abbott won Bexar(San Antonio) as well as Harris. Texas flipping is possible, but it's not inevitable by any means and Democrats are gonna have to work hard for it.

[Skill and Chance]

Insight from a Tarrant County resident. Yes Democrats win the inner city areas here. The problem is, Dems get severely blown out in most suburban areas, which are a larger percentage of Tarrant County than the other urban counties. This is why Dems lose the state quite handily. The suburbs don't allow Dems to take the urban counties by the 70-30 margins they need to win statewide (let alone win Tarrant County). Fort Worth is also home to the stockyard and rodeo scene. Fort Worth and Arlington have Republican mayors. Dems have to figure out how to get suburban whites (and a surprisingly large minority of Hispanics) to quit voting like their rural counterparts if they want to flip it. Also don't forget about the populous wealthy suburbs in Collin and Denton (college area that Republicans win as well) counties either... Texas won't flip until these places show significant signs of it. As for when it will flip? It'll be over a decade, barring any epic GOP meltdown. After then, it's hard to tell. They have an 8 point gap to make up in an urban county that's a bit whiter than most others... And these are southern whites we're talking about. They aren't swing voters like whites in the north can be.

High end suburban whites weren't a swing demographic in the North either, 50 years ago. Their children were a different story and many of their grandchildren were no longer swing voters, because they had become base Democratic voters (places like Westchester, NY).

The two factors at play, will be how much younger members of this demographic, are less Republican and how high and how democratic the minority vote is. That will determine if or when the states in the sunbelt becomes swing and then Democratic leaning.

The numbers are pretty bad generation gap wise in SC, GA and MS.

I'm not really convinced about MS or especially SC (retiree influx) because I think the black vote will moderate with time, but GA (in 5ish years) and TX (in 10ish years) look quite precarious and LA could even get caught up in this in 15 years or so.  Imagine JBE numbers in the NOLA/Baton Rouge suburbs eventually being the norm in statewide elections.  NC I think will remain no worse than a toss up for Republicans for a long time.  There is enough rural vote left to convert there.  MS is interesting because the rural white vote is already so maxed out, but the state doesn't really have any large cities to drive a Dem trend.

The Jackson suburbs are where a lot of the African American youth population growth is concentrated in.

Well, they aren't that big relative to the state, and just like I think 85%+ GOP voting among Southern white people can not last, I also think the 85%+ Dem margins with black voters will slowly fade away.  Consider what happened with the Catholic vote after Kennedy and LBJ.  It went from about 80% Kennedy in a tied national race in 1960 to a swing demographic by the 1980's.

[Virginiá]

Well, they aren't that big relative to the state, and just like I think 85%+ GOP voting among Southern white people can not last, I also think the 85%+ Dem margins with black voters will slowly fade away.  Consider what happened with the Catholic vote after Kennedy and LBJ.  It went from about 80% Kennedy in a tied national race in 1960 to a swing demographic by the 1980's.

On a national scale, you can kind of see that already with African American males. However, I don't think that really has anything to do with erosion among AAs specifically but rather males in general. Female African Americans overall are very Democratic. Democrats also seemed to underperform with African American Millennials in the House vote as well. 83% - 15%

I agree that Democrats probably can't expect to hold that demographic by such absurd numbers forever, but it is unclear so far how long it will take to diminish and when that slide would start (unless it has already with Millennials)

[Arbitrage1980]

Since 2000, Tarrant has largely been a bellwether in terms of TX's final margin - especially since 2008. Tarrant's margin has been within one-half of a point of the state's in the three past elections.

Code:

YR	TX	TARRANT	DIFF
2000	21.32	23.96		2.64
2004	22.87	25.38		2.51
2008	11.75	11.70		-0.05
2012	15.78	15.69		-0.09
2016	8.99	8.60		-0.39

Yet Tarrant really hasn't had a breakout moment yet like many rapidly-trending R-to-D suburban counties do, where they suddenly lurch much further to the left in one or more elections than the state as a whole. Part of this may be because such a huge percentage of TX lives in suburban areas, so maybe it's irrelevant, but...if suburban attitudes of Trump as they were last year largely hold - or get worse - then you very well may see Tarrant flip in 2020.

Look at counties in my state - Cobb and Gwinnett in particular - for an example of what could happen, with particular emphasis on the difference in margins between the state and the county.

Code:

YR	GA	COBB		DIFF
2000	11.69	22.90		11.21
2004	16.59	24.82		8.23
2008	5.20	9.41		4.21
2012	7.80	12.42		4.62
2016	5.09	-2.16		-7.25	

Code:

YR	GA	GWINNETT	DIFF
2000	11.69	31.56		19.87
2004	16.59	32.22		15.63
2008	5.20	10.21		5.01
2012	7.80	9.20		1.4
2016	5.09	-5.79		-10.88

Whether it's one that's a bit more gradual/uniform over cycles or one that gradually shifts while occasionally having waves of massive shifts, usually there is suddenly one or more lurches in suburban R-to-D trending counties. I don't think we've seen that happen in Tarrant yet. My money would be on Tarrant being a bit more like Cobb than Gwinnett. Still, you only need one more moderately-sized suburban-style swing in Tarrant to flip it, whether TX as a whole moves along with it or not.

Yeah (also live in Tarrant county) they have often said here amongst our GOP that if Tarrant county falls so does Texas in GOP terms, it is the one stubborn block that really stops the changeover

See my post above; the parts referring to Cobb/Gwinnett are relevant. No sane person before 2016 thought GA would remain GOP with both Cobb and Gwinnett flipping, and yet it happened rather abruptly and massively without really threatening the GOP's statewide dominance.

I grew up in Gwinnett County, GA, and the shift has been stunning. Not sure if 2016 was because of Trump or part of a broader trend towards the dems due to the county becoming more diverse demographically. I think any other Republican would have won it but probably by smaller margins than Romney. I remember visiting home in 2004 thanksgiving holidays, and every other home and car had Bush-Cheney signs. When I back in 2016, I only saw a few Trump-Pence signs. Anecdotal, sure, but it does confirm what actually happened.

[hopper]

Well, they aren't that big relative to the state, and just like I think 85%+ GOP voting among Southern white people can not last, I also think the 85%+ Dem margins with black voters will slowly fade away.  Consider what happened with the Catholic vote after Kennedy and LBJ.  It went from about 80% Kennedy in a tied national race in 1960 to a swing demographic by the 1980's.

On a national scale, you can kind of see that already with African American males. However, I don't think that really has anything to do with erosion among AAs specifically but rather males in general. Female African Americans overall are very Democratic. Democrats also seemed to underperform with African American Millennials in the House vote as well. 83% - 15%

I agree that Democrats probably can't expect to hold that demographic by such absurd numbers forever, but it is unclear so far how long it will take to diminish and when that slide would start (unless it has already with Millennials)

There's also the possibility that Obama being on the ballot artificially inflated D numbers among AA men. Clinton 2016 probably brought that down to more normal levels.

I do, however, agree that slippage should be expected among African Americans, but I doubt that it'll ever consistently get to the point where Republicans are hitting 20% or more with them. There's way too many perceived fault lines on race in America and where the parties stand for that to happen. I'm also of the belief that any gains Republicans do make with black voters will be outside of the South where there's less history of voter suppression/obstacles that constantly remind African American voters why they vote Democratic. Case in point: North Carolina and their legislature.

Its not because of voter suppression that AA's vote Democratic its that the Democrats are the lesser of the 2 evils for AA's to vote for. As far as 2016 North Carolina voting goes ages 45+ actually did vote at their 2012 levels but Black People younger than 45 didn't vote at their 2012 levels in NC.

[hopper]

Insight from a Tarrant County resident. Yes Democrats win the inner city areas here. The problem is, Dems get severely blown out in most suburban areas, which are a larger percentage of Tarrant County than the other urban counties. This is why Dems lose the state quite handily. The suburbs don't allow Dems to take the urban counties by the 70-30 margins they need to win statewide (let alone win Tarrant County). Fort Worth is also home to the stockyard and rodeo scene. Fort Worth and Arlington have Republican mayors. Dems have to figure out how to get suburban whites (and a surprisingly large minority of Hispanics) to quit voting like their rural counterparts if they want to flip it. Also don't forget about the populous wealthy suburbs in Collin and Denton (college area that Republicans win as well) counties either... Texas won't flip until these places show significant signs of it. As for when it will flip? It'll be over a decade, barring any epic GOP meltdown. After then, it's hard to tell. They have an 8 point gap to make up in an urban county that's a bit whiter than most others... And these are southern whites we're talking about. They aren't swing voters like whites in the north can be.

High end suburban whites weren't a swing demographic in the North either, 50 years ago. Their children were a different story and many of their grandchildren were no longer swing voters, because they had become base Democratic voters (places like Westchester, NY).

The two factors at play, will be how much younger members of this demographic, are less Republican and how high and how democratic the minority vote is. That will determine if or when the states in the sunbelt becomes swing and then Democratic leaning.

The numbers are pretty bad generation gap wise in SC, GA and MS.

I'm not really convinced about MS or especially SC (retiree influx) because I think the black vote will moderate with time, but GA (in 5ish years) and TX (in 10ish years) look quite precarious and LA could even get caught up in this in 15 years or so.  Imagine JBE numbers in the NOLA/Baton Rouge suburbs eventually being the norm in statewide elections.  NC I think will remain no worse than a toss up for Republicans for a long time.  There is enough rural vote left to convert there.  MS is interesting because the rural white vote is already so maxed out, but the state doesn't really have any large cities to drive a Dem trend.

The Jackson suburbs are where a lot of the African American youth population growth is concentrated in.

Well, they aren't that big relative to the state, and just like I think 85%+ GOP voting among Southern white people can not last, I also think the 85%+ Dem margins with black voters will slowly fade away.  Consider what happened with the Catholic vote after Kennedy and LBJ.  It went from about 80% Kennedy in a tied national race in 1960 to a swing demographic by the 1980's.

Just to play devils advocate: Yeah but Black People have been voting at a 90-95% Dem Clip for the past 50 years.

As far as the Southern White Vote goes yeah those margins won't last forever for Republicans but Southern Whites were still sending Dems to Congress as recently as the 1990's.

[Reginald]

Tarrant is considerably whiter than all of the largest TX counties besides Travis, and Austin is obviously a political anomaly in the state. Moreover, Fort Worth is not a particularly cosmopolitan city for its size and Arlington is a featureless megasuburb whose boom occurred decades ago. Tarrant's educational attainment wrt the Bachelor's statistic is almost equal to Dallas County's despite it being ~20 percentage points whiter. Collin and, to a lesser extent, Denton counties are receiving more of the attention from the upper-middle class influx into the metro.

It's just a little different from your standard Hillarybait despite the swing in the election. Not all white suburbanites are the same.

[Tintrlvr]

Insight from a Tarrant County resident. Yes Democrats win the inner city areas here. The problem is, Dems get severely blown out in most suburban areas, which are a larger percentage of Tarrant County than the other urban counties. This is why Dems lose the state quite handily. The suburbs don't allow Dems to take the urban counties by the 70-30 margins they need to win statewide (let alone win Tarrant County). Fort Worth is also home to the stockyard and rodeo scene. Fort Worth and Arlington have Republican mayors. Dems have to figure out how to get suburban whites (and a surprisingly large minority of Hispanics) to quit voting like their rural counterparts if they want to flip it. Also don't forget about the populous wealthy suburbs in Collin and Denton (college area that Republicans win as well) counties either... Texas won't flip until these places show significant signs of it. As for when it will flip? It'll be over a decade, barring any epic GOP meltdown. After then, it's hard to tell. They have an 8 point gap to make up in an urban county that's a bit whiter than most others... And these are southern whites we're talking about. They aren't swing voters like whites in the north can be.

High end suburban whites weren't a swing demographic in the North either, 50 years ago. Their children were a different story and many of their grandchildren were no longer swing voters, because they had become base Democratic voters (places like Westchester, NY).

The two factors at play, will be how much younger members of this demographic, are less Republican and how high and how democratic the minority vote is. That will determine if or when the states in the sunbelt becomes swing and then Democratic leaning.

The numbers are pretty bad generation gap wise in SC, GA and MS.

I'm not really convinced about MS or especially SC (retiree influx) because I think the black vote will moderate with time, but GA (in 5ish years) and TX (in 10ish years) look quite precarious and LA could even get caught up in this in 15 years or so.  Imagine JBE numbers in the NOLA/Baton Rouge suburbs eventually being the norm in statewide elections.  NC I think will remain no worse than a toss up for Republicans for a long time.  There is enough rural vote left to convert there.  MS is interesting because the rural white vote is already so maxed out, but the state doesn't really have any large cities to drive a Dem trend.

The Jackson suburbs are where a lot of the African American youth population growth is concentrated in.

Well, they aren't that big relative to the state, and just like I think 85%+ GOP voting among Southern white people can not last, I also think the 85%+ Dem margins with black voters will slowly fade away.  Consider what happened with the Catholic vote after Kennedy and LBJ.  It went from about 80% Kennedy in a tied national race in 1960 to a swing demographic by the 1980's.

Just to play devils advocate: Yeah but Black People have been voting at a 90-95% Dem Clip for the past 50 years.

As far as the Southern White Vote goes yeah those margins won't last forever for Republicans but Southern Whites were still sending Dems to Congress as recently as the 1990's.

In fact, black voters have gotten more Democratic over the past 50 years, not less. 50 years ago, the Democrats were getting 75-80% of the black vote. Now, Democrats are getting 90-95% of the black vote, nearing 100% when factors are especially favorable (Obama).

[Skill and Chance]

I actually think Texas Democrats could win the state and still lose Tarrant.  As long as oil prices stay anomalously low, the clearest path to a Dem statewide win in the next 10 years is 65% in Harris + 65% in Dallas + 60% in San Antonio + further erosion of the massive Republican margins in West Texas.  The only thing is that a candidate capable of doing that well in Harris and West Texas might have a turnout problem in the Austin area.