Northern vs. Southern Democrats

[TML]

Back in 2004-05, my US history teacher remarked that from the mid-1960s up to 2004, the Democrats lost the presidency every time they nominated a Northern Democrat (e.g. McGovern, Mondale, Kerry), while they had success when they nominated Southern Democrats (e.g. Johnson, Carter, Clinton). As we all know, however, Obama broke that pattern.

Thus, is it really true that it is no longer necessary for the Democrats to nominate a Southerner in order for them to win the presidency? If so, to what extent was it true in the past?

[RaphaelDLG]

I imagine it's becoming less and less true as party ID is becoming more calcified and therefore elections are less about persuasion of the moderate voter (the implication being that southern democrats are more moderate and the northerners more liberal) and more about turnout.

But I still think it's a good idea to nominate someone who has appeal to WWC - not necessarily a southerner, not necessarily a moderate, but someone with a broader appeal.

[Young Moderate Republican]

Back in 2004-05, my US history teacher remarked that from the mid-1960s up to 2004, the Democrats lost the presidency every time they nominated a Northern Democrat (e.g. McGovern, Mondale, Kerry), while they had success when they nominated Southern Democrats (e.g. Johnson, Carter, Clinton). As we all know, however, Obama broke that pattern.

Thus, is it really true that it is no longer necessary for the Democrats to nominate a Southerner in order for them to win the presidency? If so, to what extent was it true in the past?

It's weird how that works out. Most recent GOP candidates have come from the west. Bush 41 and 43 call Texas home (though originally from Connecticut), Reagan and Nixon from California and Eisenhower from my mother's hometown of Denison, TX. I don't count Ford as an exception because he wasn't elected. Trump breaks the Republican trend, being from the from the former Republican bastion of the northeast.

[Sumner 1868]

It was never needed.

[mieastwick]

being from the from the former Republican bastion of the northeast.

New York City was always a Democratic bastion. Vermont and Maine were former Republican bastions, and New Hampshire as recently as 1988.

The Dems would have won with Tsongas in 1992, JFK in 1964, and probably Humphrey in 1976, as well.

[darklordoftech]

It seems to me that the south controlled the Presidency to a degree from 1972 to 2008. Nixon won the south, Ford wasn't elected so he doesn't count, Carter was a southerner and won the south, Reagan and HW won the south, Clinton was a southerner and won some southern states, and Dubya was perceived as a southerner and won the south.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It seems to me that the south controlled the Presidency to a degree from 1972 to 2008. Nixon won the south, Ford wasn't elected so he doesn't count, Carter was a southerner and won the south, Reagan and HW won the south, Clinton was a southerner and won some southern states, and Dubya was perceived as a southerner and won the south.

Reagan didnt need the south in 1980, as carter best region was the south . Neither did Bill in 1996.

[SingingAnalyst]

It seems to me that the south controlled the Presidency to a degree from 1972 to 2008. Nixon won the south, Ford wasn't elected so he doesn't count, Carter was a southerner and won the south, Reagan and HW won the south, Clinton was a southerner and won some southern states, and Dubya was perceived as a southerner and won the south.

You are correct, in fact I believe whoever won the South won the election for every election from 1928 to 2004 inclusive (though 1952 and 1956 were close calls). No other region can say that: the midwest and west voted Nixon in '60 and Ford in '76;  the northeast voted Dewey '48, Humphrey, Gore, and Kerry.

[henster]

I think a Western Dem is more likelier than a Southern Dem in the future.

[Mr. Smith]

I think a Western Dem is more likelier than a Southern Dem in the future.

Maybe, but they have to really get the infrastructure back. They spent generations chasing The South after the CRA, while letting the Frank Moss', Gale McGee's and Frank Churches go to waste...they pretty much turned tail and ran when McGovern lost...and nominated Jimmy Carter, who proved to be a terrible fit for the region.

They didn't nominate Gary Hart, Mondale didn't pick Feinstein or Babbit or Hart...he turned tail. They had no serious Westerners in '88 either.

Montana used to be the antithesis of Wyoming and Kansas, Idaho had a moderate pandhandle...now look at the bench generally.