NJ-Quinnipiac: Phil Murphy (D) leads Kim Guadagno (R) by 2:1

[Tender Branson]

50% Murphy
25% Guadagno

...

President Trump's Approval Rating

With a more than 2-1 disapproval from women, President Donald Trump gets a negative 35 - 56 percent job approval rating in the Garden State, compared to a negative 34 - 59 percent score in a March 15 Quinnipiac University poll.

Today, women give Trump a negative 28 - 63 percent approval rating. The president has a negative 43 - 49 percent among men.

Booker for President

New Jersey voters approve 57 - 33 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Cory Booker is doing, but say 54 - 33 percent that he should not run for president in 2020.

Booker's presidential possibility gets a lukewarm 54 - 30 percent endorsement from Democrats, with every other listed party, gender, education, age or racial group saying no.

Voters give U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez a split 41 - 41 percent job approval rating.

...

From April 26 - May 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,209 New Jersey voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 519 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points and 331 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2454

[Dr. Arch]

Likely to Safe D

[MAINEiac4434]

Congratulations, Governor Murphy.

[Skye]

I told you this was Safe D. Christie's numbers + Trump = Certain defeat.

[Suburbia]

Likely D.

Also, for 2018, Menendez could still lose despite a Trump-Pence midterm. Jay Webber or Christopher Bateman could make it competitive for Menendez.

[peterthlee]

I told you this was Safe D. Christie's numbers + Trump = Certain defeat.

Yeah, this.
In the end it will be a D+20 to D+25 blowout.

[Suburbia]

Is it possible that Murphy could overperform McGreevey and Christie's landslides in 2001 and 2013 respectively?

[MAINEiac4434]

Is it possible that Murphy could overperform McGreevey and Christie's landslides in 2001 and 2013 respectively?

Yes. Yes it is. And the likelihood is increasing every day.

[Xing]

Congrats to the Democratic Party on picking up its fourth gubernatorial mansion in four years. Too bad they've simultaneously lost several more than that.

[krazen1211]

Safe D.

Also lol@Menendez. He'll win easily in 2018 of course, but those numbers are embarrassing considering that this is New Jersey.

Even if his trial goes South, the Democrats will cheat and do a Torricelli switch again.

[Tekken_Guy]

Can Murphy even win Morris and Monmouth? I can't remember any Democrat winning there in any statewide election in recent memory.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Can Murphy even win Morris and Monmouth? I can't remember any Democrat winning there in any statewide election in recent memory.

I would definitely think Morris is within reach for Murphy given recent trends to the Dems in the county and Christie's unpopularity, though it is his home base, having once been a Morris County Freeholder and currently residing in Mendham, so it's possible he hasn't tanked as much here as elsewhere. Just anecdotally, this is my home county and my parents, whom are both lifelong Republicans who eagerly voted for Trump, have soured hard on Christie, but they do like Guadagno and would never for a second even consider voting to send a Democratic Gov to Trenton. Idk how many Republicans here think similarly, but given the wealth and demographics of the area I would imagine many are like them, though many Republicans here either reluctantly supported Trump or even supported Clinton (as opposed to the enthusiastic Trump support by my parents) and those people could potentially be swayed to Murphy.

Monmouth has gone Democratic as recently as McGreevey's 2001 run, but it's gone the other way from Morris, being a heavily white working-class area that swung to Trump, so it may have fallen out of reach for Dems, but I could see it being persuaded back into the fold with the right messaging from Murphy, but that messaging needed to get Monmouth would imo make it harder to bring NeverTrump-type Republicans in Morris on board (and push that county further out of reach).

[houseonaboat]

The best poll of the primary yet -- a poll of LIKELY Democratic primary voters -- has Murphy getting 37% of voters, Wisniewski at 7%, Johnson at 4%, and undecided at 49%. Granted it was a poll for the NJ League of Conservation Voters (a group that endorsed Murphy) but unlike Quinnipiac/Monmouth they're polling likely voters, which matters a lot in an off-year primary.

"Murphy’s double-digit lead extends across all major demographics including race, gender, age and geography. He is particularly strong among the most regular primary voters voting in two or more of the last three offyear primaries (44%), liberal Democrats (45%), and white college-educated voters (41%)."

"His favorability ratings are more than 10 times his unfavorable ratings (47% favorable, 4% unfavorable), considerably better than his two closest opponents, Wisniewski (24% favorable, 6% unfavorable) and Johnson (11% favorable, 4% unfavorable). Even among those voting for other candidates or still undecided, Murphy’s image is decidedly net favorable (24% favorable, 6% unfavorable)."

https://www.insidernj.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/5-17-Mellman-Group-Polling-Memo.pdf

[houseonaboat]

I've been following polling for a while now, this might be my favorite "leaked" internal memo yet. Highly creative interpretation of data (not to mention flat-out factual errors about the Q poll)

https://s.bsd.net/jjforgov/main/page/-/Jim-Johnson-Polling-Memo.pdf

[pikachu]

Safe D.

Also lol@Menendez. He'll win easily in 2018 of course, but those numbers are embarrassing considering that this is New Jersey.

41-41 is actually not that bad for a New Jersey politician...

[Maxwell]

41-41 is downright impressive considering he's, oh I don't know, indicted on corruption charges.