French Legislative Election 2017

[Zinneke]

Who is the favourite between Valls and the FI candidate?

[SunSt0rm]

Who is the favourite between Valls and the FI candidate?

Ifop had it 50-50 a while ago. They predicted 30-24 for Valls in the first round, it became 25-18. third is LR with 12%, FN has 11%, DVD 8% and PCF 8%. I have no idea whether the right wing vote will help Valls or not, but I think he can squeeze it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If I lived there, that might be the only FI vote I'd be willing to cast. He needs to be gone.

[Kingpoleon]

this is not the netherlands, imho, the left vote isn't dead, it's just diminished by tactical voters and splitting.

Macron has bit a huge chunk out of Sarkozy and Hollande voters. I don't think a majority of those are coming back. We'll see LREM(~35%), LR-UDI(~20%), FN(~17.5%), FI(~17.5%), and PS(~10%) for a while. Obviously the exact amounts will change, LREM's vote total will shift between the two blocs, but for now, this system has five major factions and that's how it will stay for a good amount of time.

[Tirnam]

NKM fainted after being assaulted in a Paris market.

[parochial boy]

this is not the netherlands, imho, the left vote isn't dead, it's just diminished by tactical voters and splitting.

Macron has bit a huge chunk out of Sarkozy and Hollande voters. I don't think a majority of those are coming back. We'll see LREM(~35%), LR-UDI(~20%), FN(~17.5%), FI(~17.5%), and PS(~10%) for a while. Obviously the exact amounts will change, LREM's vote total will shift between the two blocs, but for now, this system has five major factions and that's how it will stay for a good amount of time.

Don't count on it - look at what happened to the Communists and the UDF over the course of the 80s/90s. All 5 parties might stick around for the time being, I suspect we'll see at least two of them going through chronic decline.

[Zanas]

this is not the netherlands, imho, the left vote isn't dead, it's just diminished by tactical voters and splitting.

Really, it's just diminished by differential turnout. Left-wing voters are out there, they just don't want to participate in this farce.

[jaichind]

Who is the favourite between Valls and the FI candidate?

Ifop had it 50-50 a while ago. They predicted 30-24 for Valls in the first round, it became 25-18. third is LR with 12%, FN has 11%, DVD 8% and PCF 8%. I have no idea whether the right wing vote will help Valls or not, but I think he can squeeze it.

Would not this seat be lean Valls now?  It seems the non-LR Right vote here is almost 14%.  The center-right vote is quite split in the first round ergo FI got into the second round but most of that vote will go Valls I assume.   For the FI candidate it can count on PCF and perhaps some FN crossover votes and that is it. 

[Leftbehind]

this is not the netherlands, imho, the left vote isn't dead, it's just diminished by tactical voters and splitting.

Really, it's just diminished by differential turnout. Left-wing voters are out there, they just don't want to participate in this farce.

Nor is the left dead in the Netherlands - PvdA being punished for a grand coalition with its vote collapsing (most of which to non-coalition centre-left parties) is not particularly concerning.

[DavidB.]

Nor is the left dead in the Netherlands - PvdA being punished for a grand coalition with its vote collapsing (most of which to non-coalition centre-left parties) is not particularly concerning.

Left-wing parties GL, SP, PvdA and PvdD have 42 out of 150 seats, fewer than ever and almost what the PvdA got on their own in 2012; back then, these four parties had 59 seats and the PvdA 38. Even if you include economically center-right D66, they went from 71 in 2012 to 61 in 2017.

I wouldn't say the left is dead in the Netherlands because I'm not some "2017 forever" person and the PvdA will get back up. However, with a party that will never form a center-left government in the driver's seat and a center-right government being all the left can hope for, the left is weaker than ever right now.

[Leftbehind]

Nor is the left dead in the Netherlands - PvdA being punished for a grand coalition with its vote collapsing (most of which to non-coalition centre-left parties) is not particularly concerning.

Left-wing parties GL, SP, PvdA and PvdD have 42 out of 150 seats, fewer than ever and almost what the PvdA got on their own in 2012; back then, these four parties had 59 seats and the PvdA 38. Even if you include economically center-right D66, they went from 71 in 2012 to 61 in 2017.

I wouldn't say the left is dead in the Netherlands because I'm not some "2017 forever" person and the PvdA will get back up. However, with a party that will never form a center-left government in the driver's seat and a center-right government being all the left can hope for, the left is weaker than ever right now.

You missed Denk. Also, even liberals like D66 would've still been able to attack the PvdA from the left thanks to said coalition. As I say, grand coalitions are usually ruinous for left-of-centre parties and they get hammered for it at the next election - odd circumstances like then are not the best time to measure the health of the left in the Netherlands.

[DavidB.]

Conservative Muslims aren't left-wing and D66 never attacked the PvdA from the left, they even attacked the VVD from the right in some cases. The point is that the combined left lost. If the PvdA would have lost all their support to SP and GL you would have a point. But they haven't and you don't. Anyway, let's talk about France here; if you want to talk some more about this interesting subject, let's do it in the Dutch thread.

[RogueBeaver]

OpinionWay projects LREM at 440-70 seats. Surf's up.

[Tender Branson]

NKM fainted after being assaulted in a Paris market.

France's Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet knocked out while campaigning

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40293395

[windjammer]

OpinionWay projects LREM at 440-70 seats. Surf's up.

More details:
EM and alies: 440-470
LR and allies: 70-90
PS and allies: 20-30
FI/PCF: 5-15
FN: 1-5


That seems globally accurate.

[Tirnam]

And share of the vote with the different runoffs

LREM: 58%
Right: 42%

LREM: 60%
FN: 40%

LREM: 59%
Left: 41%

[Antonio the Sixth]

What a brute. I'm far from a NKM fan but I hope she's all right.

[Leftbehind]

What a brute. I'm far from a NKM fan but I hope she's all right.

It's bad news for everyone when politicians start thinking engaging with the public leads to the potential of being assaulted.

[brucejoel99]

What a brute. I'm far from a NKM fan but I hope she's all right.

Same; sending my very best wishes to NKM after this cowardly attacked in the street. Hopefully, justice can be served. Get well soon!

[Helsinkian]

One party getting 80% of the seats in parliament reminds me of Kazakhstan, not Western Europe.

[Tirnam]

Harris interactive projection

LREM/MoDem: 440-470
LR and allies: 60-80
PS and allies: 22-35
FI/PCF: 14-25
FN/far-right: 1-6
Others: 3-7

[Tender Branson]

One party getting 80% of the seats in parliament reminds me of Kazakhstan, not Western Europe.

Well, there's a saying: "Democracy is the dictatorship of the majority."

And in France's case right now, it's even clearer because the LREM-folks are highly motivated - whereas the voters from the other parties have already given up ...

[SunSt0rm]

I am happy that Macron will get a majority, but having 80% isnt healthy. I would be even tempted to vote for a opposition party with these numbers

I see that there is even a chance that MoDem becomes the second largest party in the Assemblee, I assume they will form a faction seperate from LREM. I assume that UDI will form a faction then if they have 15 deputees. So there will be probably be four or six faction in the next assemblee. LREM, MoDem, LR, PS and possibly UDI and FI-PCF

[jaichind]

Odoxa Poll has turnout at 47% for second round and LREM 430-460.  Wow.  Looks like everyone is converging on this massive number for LREM.  I thought there might be some tactical moves across the ideological  spectrum to block LREM from a super majority.  I guess not.

[Tirnam]

My prediction, based on the results of the first round

LREM/MoDem: 453 (LREM 397, MoDem 56)
Right: 76 (LR 61, UDI 11, DVD 4)
Left: 26 (PS 12, PRG 2, EELV 1, DVG 11)
Radical Left: 12 (FI 6, PCF 6)
Far-right: 3 (FN 2, Ligue du Sud 1)
Others: 7