French Legislative Election 2017

[Tender Branson]

There are "some surprises" TF1 and France 2 say.

Le Pen doesn't win her seat ?

[TheSaint250]

LREM is just another right-wing party, don't get all drama queen.

Girardin seems to have survived in Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, but just.

"Everyone to my right is a right-winger!"

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not right-wing at all imo

Wow you actually just made me like him that much more

Fillon pledged €50 billion in tax cuts and €100 billion in spending cuts including cutting 500,000 public sector jobs. Why did you have to be so corrupt François, you could have made France great again ...

Lol.  I liked Le Pen (mainly based on anti-EU stance) but Fillon was easily a close second favorite. I liked  his tax plan

[mvd10]

So, is there any chance a part of Macron's deputies will revolt if Macron's economic agenda becomes unpopular? Or does France have very strong party discipline?

I mean, LREM candidates are complete nobodies with no party experience, so party tradition would be pretty irrelevant.

Yeah, this is why I wondered if there are chances of rebellions inside LREM. LREM undoubtedly attracted a lot of opportunists and I wonder how supportive of Macron they will be when his popularity slides. And most of LREM's voters and MP's probably were Socialists in the past, I really can't imagine they suddenly are infatuated with free markets.

So, is there any chance a part of Macron's deputies will revolt if Macron's economic agenda becomes unpopular?

"If"?

Yeah, you're right. The results will need to come before 2022. I've read somewhere that the main goal of Macron's economic stimulus plan (€50 billion of public investments) was to act as a sweetener for his deregulation agenda.

[Antonio the Sixth]

LREM at 355? Wow.

[Tirnam]

Major surprise indeed.

[Tender Branson]

LREM at 355? Wow.

Really ?

[mvd10]

Wat.

Well, I suppose things will be harder for Macron than expected.

[TheSaint250]

So, is there any chance a part of Macron's deputies will revolt if Macron's economic agenda becomes unpopular? Or does France have very strong party discipline?

I mean, LREM candidates are complete nobodies with no party experience, so party tradition would be pretty irrelevant.

Yeah, this is why I wondered if there are chances of rebellions inside LREM. LREM undoubtedly attracted a lot of opportunists and I wonder how supportive of Macron they will be when his popularity slides. And most of LREM's voters and MP's probably were Socialists in the past, I really can't imagine they suddenly are infatuated with free markets.

So, is there any chance a part of Macron's deputies will revolt if Macron's economic agenda becomes unpopular?

"If"?

Yeah, you're right. The results will need to come before 2022. I've read somewhere that the main goal of Macron's economic stimulus plan (€50 billion of public investments) was to act as a sweetener for his deregulation agenda.

The thing about this too is that many running with REM are still technically registered with other parties.  That's what could make this supermajority so unstable. Many of them could easily jump ship back home.

On that note, how many presumptive winners running with REM are not registered with REM?

[Tirnam]

Elabe has LREM/MoDem 395-425

[TheSaint250]

LREM at 355? Wow.

That's IT?

[Tender Branson]

Probably some last-minute tactical voting for other parties to prevent a super-majority for LREM.

Or some of their people stayed home.

[jaichind]

MACRON PARTY SET TO WIN 395-425 SEATS: ELABE POLL

[Antonio the Sixth]

Elabe has LREM/MoDem 395-425

Well that's a huge gap between exit polls. Curious to see who's right.

[Andrea]

Olivier Dussopt (PS) re-elected in Ardeche 02. He was behind the REM candidate in first round.

PS also wins Ardeche 01 against REM.

[TheSaint250]

Anything about FN and FI?

[DavidB.]

BFM(FBM?)TV:
LREM 395-425
LR UDI DVD 97-117
PS PRG DVG 29-34
FI 12-17
FN 4-6
Autre 8-10
Ext Gauche 0

[jaichind]

Bloomberg) -- Pollster Ipsos estimates outcome of second and final round of parliamentary election based on sampling of early votes.
•    NOTE: the lower chamber of Parliament has 577 seats
•    Republic on The Move (Macron) & Modem ally: 355 seats
•    The Republicans & allies: 125 seats
•    National Front: 8 seats
•    Socialists & allies: 49 seats
•    France Unbowed & Communists: 30 seats

[TheSaint250]

Which poll is more reliable?

[Antonio the Sixth]

LASSALLE IS REELECTED!!!

[Tirnam]

First results are in line with the Ipsos projection

[DavidB.]

Does anybody have a good website with results by municipality on a clickable map? I had one last time around but lost it...

[Andrea]

Dominique Potier (PS) re-elected in Meurthe-et-Moselle 05, run off against REM. He polled 63%. He had only a 1% point lead in first round.

[TheSaint250]

On the bright side for REM, they underperformed bigly according to the pre-ED seat projections, but they still have a bigger majority than PS did.

[jaichind]

First results are in line with the Ipsos projection

If so it seems lower turnout was also LREM lowER turnout

[Tender Branson]

First results are in line with the Ipsos projection

If so it seems lower turnout was also LREM lowER turnout

Or some LREM voters had some last-minute mercy with the other parties (PS and Republicans), instead of fully destroying them.