French Legislative Election 2017
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TheSaint250
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« on: May 03, 2017, 12:59:23 PM »

Since the presidential election is almost over and some polls are beginning to appear, I think it's time to start a thread discussing the French legislative election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2017, 01:54:18 PM »

OpinionWay polled the legislative election if Macron would win next sunday. The only polled  metropolitan France without Corsica. Their poll shows:

EM: 249-285 deputies
LR/UDI: 200-210
PS: 28-43
FN: 15-25
FdG: 6-8

https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/legislatives-2017/0212035461141-sondage-en-marche-donne-gagnant-des-legislatives-2084198.php#xtor=CS1-33

EDIT: corrected to FN 15-25

FN at 15-25 is an amazing result for them and really represents a breakthrough in the two round election system  that is set up to stop them from winning seats.
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Zuza
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« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2017, 03:41:17 PM »
« Edited: May 03, 2017, 03:43:15 PM by Zuza »

I recently tried to imagine the legislatives, and came to conclusion that EM and LR will emerge as 2 major players with 40+ % seats each, so I'm not surprised to see this poll.

But are there any other realistic scenarios? Quite a time ago, before the second round, somebody in the presidential elections poll described 4 possible outcomes; most likely, according to him, was collapse of both LR and PS and their partial absorption by EM. Or maybe PS will be able to rebound somewhat after Hamon's disaster? In principle it is still a large party with a strong local base (which EM apparently lacks). I personally don't believe in this, though.

What will most likely be Macron's coalition if EM won't win majority? EM-PS, EM-LR or will it just be enough for some deputies from either PS or LR to switch to EM after the election?
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2017, 06:47:00 PM »

I remember when EM was first announced, it was "a movement, not a political party." Is that still the case or has it transitioned into being a formal party? Is there even a legal difference, if so, what is it?
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2017, 07:36:52 PM »

I remember when EM was first announced, it was "a movement, not a political party." Is that still the case or has it transitioned into being a formal party? Is there even a legal difference, if so, what is it?
It seems to be a loose coalition that is slowly evolving into a political party.  Can't tell you for sure the difference since I don't live there, but that's my perspective.
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Kamala
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« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2017, 10:16:28 PM »

I remember when EM was first announced, it was "a movement, not a political party." Is that still the case or has it transitioned into being a formal party? Is there even a legal difference, if so, what is it?

To me, EM just feels like UDI in newer, sexier clothing.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2017, 02:44:50 PM »

Time to discuss: how will Macron's win affect the legislative election?

(pretty obvious but wanted to ask anyway)
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2017, 02:45:42 PM »

Time to discuss: how will Macron's win affect the legislative election?

(pretty obvious but wanted to ask anyway)

En Marche! probably wins a majority or close to a majority.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2017, 02:55:24 PM »

  If the legislatives could be delayed a few months I wonder if Macron's honeymoon period would be over and EM wouldn't do as well.
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jaichind
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« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2017, 03:50:00 PM »


If FG PS and EELV runs separately then  this sort of results will most likely lead to most of their candidates not making it to the second round.  And even when they do it will most likely be FG than PS and will be easily beaten by EM! or LR and could face defeat even when faced with FN.
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jaichind
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« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2017, 03:57:52 PM »

Harris poll

http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/05/Rapport-Harris-Sondage-Soir-du-Vote-2nd-tour-de-lelection-presidentielle-M6.pdf

Has

EM !       26
LR-UDI   22
FN          22
FG/FI      13
PS            8
EELV        3
DLF          3
PCF          2
LO           1

If turnout is around 60% and with the 12.5% threshold it seems EM !, LR-UDI, FN should qualify for a significant number of second round race with everyone else shut out.
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Kamala
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« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2017, 04:05:17 PM »

Is it possible UDI will work with EM! instead of LR?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2017, 04:05:27 PM »

There's already some great media narratives cooking up, with people like François Baroin threatening Bruno Le Maire with a dissident candidacy if he becomes part of the Macron machine (hopefully not).

Some points/questions I have for maybe the French posters to hypothesise on:

  • Whether the France Insoumise crashes like FdG in 2011, or is this now a genuine social-political movement in communities that is not just willing to turn out for Méluche?
  • Whether LR decides to go Ni-Ni in the case of 1rst round drop out, and whether this will split the party - esp. in the South where they rely on PS-antifascist votes as well as their hard right stance
  • Will Le Pen have her blacklist ready again, if she even leads the FN into the next election? I imagine the black list will be more about which people are souverainistes, in order to tempt the voters
  • What will happen in communities where Modem-PS was basically the political divide, and where both endorsed En Marche
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jaichind
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« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2017, 04:17:44 PM »

Is it possible UDI will work with EM! instead of LR?

My understanding is that UDI and LR already have an alliance worked out with UDI getting a certain bloc of seats.  It seems that PS-EELV has an alliance as well which will help a bit but if PS-EELV is at 11-12 as polls suggest that will also limit the number of seats they will get into the second round.
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jaichind
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« Reply #14 on: May 07, 2017, 04:19:18 PM »

One question I have is will PS-EELV, FG, and EM ! have an understanding that if in the second round it is two of them versus FN that the bloc with the smaller vote percentage would withdraw to allow the other face FN in a 1-on-1 battle?  I am pretty certain LR-UDI would not be part of such a pact.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2017, 04:48:23 PM »


  • Whether the France Insoumise crashes like FdG in 2011, or is this now a genuine social-political movement in communities that is not just willing to turn out for Méluche?


Maybe, but knowing that still in many electoral districts there will be both candidates of PCF and FI or even PG and FI I guess FI result will be probably much weaker than Melenchon as for the whole country. Although Laurent today said that PCF still want to continue talks but I can't tell if there are any chances for that (knowing their earlier quarrels before the presidential elections I doubt).
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« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2017, 04:57:38 PM »

Whatever happened to the really small centrist satellite parties that are part of the centre right last time round?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2017, 05:01:32 PM »

Whatever happened to the really small centrist satellite parties that are part of the centre right last time round?

They became UDI


  • Whether the France Insoumise crashes like FdG in 2011, or is this now a genuine social-political movement in communities that is not just willing to turn out for Méluche?


Maybe, but knowing that still in many electoral districts there will be both candidates of PCF and FI or even PG and FI I guess FI result will be probably much weaker than Melenchon as for the whole country. Although Laurent today said that PCF still want to continue talks but I can't tell if there are any chances for that (knowing their earlier quarrels before the presidential elections I doubt).

Yeah I forgot about that, even Montreuil might be a challenge for FI.
Also, all the noises coming out of EELV seems to suggest they going for double or nothing and refusing any electoral pacts. I imagine the PS will support them where the EELV brand is more electable, but Jadot basically tearing up the deal on the night of the first round...
This means potential PS vs PCF vs FI vs EELV (vs the Trotskyites)
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jaichind
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« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2017, 05:13:42 PM »


Yeah I forgot about that, even Montreuil might be a challenge for FI.
Also, all the noises coming out of EELV seems to suggest they going for double or nothing and refusing any electoral pacts. I imagine the PS will support them where the EELV brand is more electable, but Jadot basically tearing up the deal on the night of the first round...
This means potential PS vs PCF vs FI vs EELV (vs the Trotskyites)

Wait,  I thought PS already locked in an alliance with EELV back in March ?
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #19 on: May 07, 2017, 05:21:58 PM »
« Edited: May 07, 2017, 05:29:10 PM by SunSt0rm »

For Macron it is best that the left stays splintered. EM can gain many seats in a scenario of triangulaire of EM vs LR vs FN with the support of the left, which I imagine will occur in many seats.

- Who is in charge now and leads the PS for the legislative election? Hamon?
- What are Valls, Royal etc going to do? Will they join the EM for the parliamentary election or for the PS or not at all?
- Does anyone have an idea who Macron is going to choose as PM. And anyone know when he is going to announce it
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #20 on: May 07, 2017, 05:25:47 PM »

For Macron it is best that the left stays splintered. EM can gain many seats in a scenario of triangulaire of EM vs LR vs FN with the support of the left, which I imagine will occur in many seats.

Does anyone have an idea who Macron is going to choose as PM. And anyone know when he is going to announce it

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/macron-set-to-name-new-french-prime-minister-by-mid-may-1.3074826

But it would be funny if Bayrou #presidentBenAbbes
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #21 on: May 07, 2017, 05:26:04 PM »

I can't tell based off of just percentages, especially since France's elections have two rounds, but if the Harris poll is correct and FN gets 22% of the first-round vote, would this be outstanding?  How many seats would/could they get?
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Bumaye
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« Reply #22 on: May 07, 2017, 05:34:43 PM »

If the Harris poll is correct and FN gets 22% of the first-round vote, would this be outstanding?
 
 
In 2015 Front National had 25% in the departmental elections and 28% in the regional elections. In both cases they were the strongest party in the first round. So no, I wouldn't say that 22% would be anything special or outstanding.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #23 on: May 07, 2017, 05:35:26 PM »

yes National Front is declining because people are more exposed to their garbage.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #24 on: May 07, 2017, 05:45:18 PM »


Yeah I forgot about that, even Montreuil might be a challenge for FI.
Also, all the noises coming out of EELV seems to suggest they going for double or nothing and refusing any electoral pacts. I imagine the PS will support them where the EELV brand is more electable, but Jadot basically tearing up the deal on the night of the first round...
This means potential PS vs PCF vs FI vs EELV (vs the Trotskyites)

Wait,  I thought PS already locked in an alliance with EELV back in March ?

Yeah but Jadot seemed quite pissed with the whole thing after round 1. And he is clearly not in charge of that party anymore. Just speculating.

For Macron it is best that the left stays splintered. EM can gain many seats in a scenario of triangulaire of EM vs LR vs FN with the support of the left, which I imagine will occur in many seats.

- Who is in charge now and leads the PS for the legislative election? Hamon?

Cambadélis (lol) or probably Le Foll.


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No idea, but apparently Macron has said if they run under a PS banner against his candidates, they will not be ministers.
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