French Legislative Election 2017

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Benchmarks from the rest of the Fifth Republic to keep in mind for the inevitable hideous defeat of the Left...

1958: 50 seats (SFIO 40, PCF 10)
1968: 91 seats (FGDS 57, PCF 34)
1993: 91 seats (PS 53, PCF 24, Others 14)

And with FG/FI and the PCF out for each other's blood, those results will look positively peachy in comparison!

Right now a sub-1958 result looks pretty likely, yeah.

[Barnes]

Is PCF still something relevant? With 1-2 % in opinion polls, it seems they diminished to the level of Trotskyists.

They have a much larger presence in departmental and communal offices than Melenchon's fan club.

[Zuza]

Wikipedia tells LREM will announce the full list of candidates on 11 May. I suspect this means it's already too late for possible PS, LR and other defectors to join LREM. Or maybe Macron will somehow make an exception and find place for some of them?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is PCF still something relevant? With 1-2 % in opinion polls, it seems they diminished to the level of Trotskyists.

They have a strong local government base in parts of the country, notably in old red belt of working class residential areas around (well these days in in all senses except officially, and not even in the outer ring...) Paris and some areas of former heavy industry:



Of course given that French Commie Local Government was almost as good an argument against Communism as the USSR this fact is a bit of a mystery, but such is France.

[jaichind]

Elabe poll

52% of French voters want President-elect Emmanuel Macron to obtain a majority in the National Assembly

55% of French voters believe Macron’s election won’t improve life in France

50% of French voters want Macron to unite the country and appease social tensions even if it means delaying economic reforms, while 48% would prefer that he implements deep reforms as soon as possible

[jaichind]

Benchmarks from the rest of the Fifth Republic to keep in mind for the inevitable hideous defeat of the Left...

1958: 50 seats (SFIO 40, PCF 10)
1968: 91 seats (FGDS 57, PCF 34)
1993: 91 seats (PS 53, PCF 24, Others 14)

Well, if you are going to define the Left as Left of REM then yes, this year I suspect the Left will crash below 1958 levels, especially they are going to be split 3 ways between PS-EELV, FG/FI and FCP.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is PCF still something relevant? With 1-2 % in opinion polls, it seems they diminished to the level of Trotskyists.

They have a strong local government base in parts of the country, notably in old red belt of working class residential areas around (well these days in in all senses except officially, and not even in the outer ring...) Paris and some areas of former heavy industry:



Of course given that French Commie Local Government was almost as good an argument against Communism as the USSR this fact is a bit of a mystery, but such is France.

They were massively racist iirc?

Also what's up with that bizarrely shaped green commune up top?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, if you are going to define the Left as Left of REM

Which we must because Macron is not on the Left and has been quite clear about this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They were massively racist iirc?

Yes

You must be logged in to read this quote.

L'Île-Saint-Denis, which, as the name suggests, is an island. Population of around 7k.

[Zuza]

Is PCF still something relevant? With 1-2 % in opinion polls, it seems they diminished to the level of Trotskyists.

They have a strong local government base in parts of the country, notably in old red belt of working class residential areas around (well these days in in all senses except officially, and not even in the outer ring...) Paris and some areas of former heavy industry:



Of course given that French Commie Local Government was almost as good an argument against Communism as the USSR this fact is a bit of a mystery, but such is France.

It's so strange to see half of the Seine-Saint-Denis won by the right...

[Famous Mortimer]

Who is the LREM candidate in Vall's district? Is it a total nobody?

[Kringla Heimsins]

Who is the LREM candidate in Vall's district? Is it a total nobody?

We don't know yet.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Benchmarks from the rest of the Fifth Republic to keep in mind for the inevitable hideous defeat of the Left...

1958: 50 seats (SFIO 40, PCF 10)
1968: 91 seats (FGDS 57, PCF 34)
1993: 91 seats (PS 53, PCF 24, Others 14)

And with FG/FI and the PCF out for each other's blood, those results will look positively peachy in comparison!

Right now a sub-1958 result looks pretty likely, yeah.

..........................................................................................

[parochial boy]

I have a dumb, and slightly irrelevant question, but has there ever been a case of the party that finished third in the first round winning a triangulaire?

[Beet]

Can't PS just dissolve and fold into FG/FI?

[Tirnam]

The PS published yesterday its legislative platform, 22 proposals.
-7 come from Hamon's presidential platform
-4 come from Macron
-5 are a consensus between Hamon and Macron positions
-4 are common proposals from Hamon and Macron
-2 are new proposals

And apparently around 100 PS deputies have asked for a LREM nomination.

So obviously the PS is closer to Macron than Mélenchon. Maybe the PS won't join officially the presidential majority but they will rather support than oppose.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Macron and Mélenchon are both unacceptable.

[Velasco]

La Gauche shoots herself in the foot. La Droite looks like an irrelevant bunch. L'Extrême Droite licks her wounds in a corner. La République... En Marche?

[jaichind]

 La Tribune says Edouard Philippe, Republican mayor for Le Havre and deputy for Seine-Maritime, is the most likely to be appointed prime minister by Emmanuel Macron.

[Former President tack50]

La Tribune says Edouard Philippe, Republican mayor for Le Havre and deputy for Seine-Maritime, is the most likely to be appointed prime minister by Emmanuel Macron.

Shouldn't the PM be someone who isn't neither from PS nor from Les Republicains? (at least to keep with the "neither left nor right"/"centrist"/whatever theme)

François Bayrou maybe?

[jaichind]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/macron-apos-party-struggles-process-101416795.html

It seems like REM will only have 450 candidates announced today versus all 577

[Tirnam]

La Tribune says Edouard Philippe, Republican mayor for Le Havre and deputy for Seine-Maritime, is the most likely to be appointed prime minister by Emmanuel Macron.

Shouldn't the PM be someone who isn't neither from PS nor from Les Republicains? (at least to keep with the "neither left nor right"/"centrist"/whatever theme)

François Bayrou maybe?

The center-left and centrist voters are already with LREM and won't change their minds. The goal now is to attract center-right voters, you need a center-right PM, LR is a plus to embarrass this party and its voters.
Le Canard Enchaîné published yesterday that a good part of Juppeist members of LR are ready to join LREM if the PM is a center-right, LR.

[jaichind]

Jean Pisani-Ferry, chief economic adviser to French President-elect Emmanuel Macron, says the new administration’s goal is to cut public spending by EU60 bln by the end of his term.

If so that really should mean that Macron should target a PM from the center-right with a REM majority or a REM-LR-UDI alliance if a REM majority is not possible.

[peterthlee]

Just an inquiry: why Cazeneuve don't serve for one more month as caretaker PM until the results of the parliamentary election have become solid?

Anyway, EM is likely to get around 285-300 seats, I bet. Chunks of PS deputies might actually be defecting.

[mvd10]

Jean Pisani-Ferry, chief economic adviser to French President-elect Emmanuel Macron, says the new administration’s goal is to cut public spending by EU60 bln by the end of his term.

If so that really should mean that Macron should target a PM from the center-right with a REM majority or a REM-LR-UDI alliance if a REM majority is not possible.

Does that target also take into account his €50 billion investment plan? From what I understand he wants to cut taxes by €20 billion, pass a €50 billion investment program and pay for it by €60 billion in spending cuts and €10 billion in savings generated by lower unemployment, but my French is crappy.

So who would get the other top jobs if Philippe is the PM? Pisani-Ferry, Ferrand, Collomb and Le Drian?