French Legislative Election 2017

[jaichind]

Looks like REM only has 428 candidates selected.  I guess their poaching campaign for LR MPs is not as successful as they had hoped ?

[jaichind]

Looks like REM will not run a candidate against Valls but seems to have rejected him as a candidate.

[jaichind]

REM candidate list includes 24 sitting PS MPs and 0 LR MPs.  It seems a lot of PS members applied but were rejected.

[Beet]

Macron and Mélenchon are both unacceptable.

Why is Melenchon unacceptable?

I always liked Melenchon more than Hamon, to be honest.

Why?

Now that the presidential election is over, I will answer. It is because both Melenchon and Hamon run as anti-neoliberal candidates, but only Melenchon has the backbone to call Merkel's bluff on the EU. Running a non-neoliberal economy policy in the Eurozone is fundamentally contradictory and unsustainable. We saw this during the Euro crisis 2009-12. As soon as any nation strays too far from orthodoxy, the bond markets will slap you back. Thus, Hamon would have been doomed to failure and unpopularity. Melenchon might have as well, but he would at least have had a chance. Hamon would have had no chance.

[jaichind]

Ok.  So it seems that for Valls seat, REM has rejected Valls as REM candidate but will not run a candidate against him versus just not nominating a candidate today.

[Famous Mortimer]

Ok.  So it seems that for Valls seat, REM has rejected Valls as REM candidate but will not run a candidate against him versus just not nominating a candidate today.

Why is Valls different from all the other PS candidates they nominated?

[jaichind]

Ok.  So it seems that for Valls seat, REM has rejected Valls as REM candidate but will not run a candidate against him versus just not nominating a candidate today.

Why is Valls different from all the other PS candidates they nominated?

There is perception that Macron is merely the continuation of the failed Hollande presidency.  Given Valls is a key part of the Hollande team (as was Macron, at least he was part of the team) REM cannot risk nominating Valls for fear that it will make it easier to link Macron/REM with Hollande.

Of course REM is now stuck. To reject Valls and run a candidate against him makes Macron look ruthless and cutthroat to throw aside well-wishers that win to join his movement.  To back him risks turning Macron/REM into Hollande II.  So I guess they went with rejection but not run a candidate.

[jaichind]

Out of the 428 REM candidates there are 214 men and 214 women.  This is so typical and smacks of quota politics that I deplore.  This by itself is enough for me not to want to back REM.  If having equal number of men and women are so important then why does Macron not demand that the presidency alternates between a man and a women.  Oh yeah, if they did that it would mean they will have to all vote for Le Pen in the just finished Prez election.

[jaichind]

Marine Le Pen’s closest aide Florian Philippot said he would quit the National Front if the party decided to scrap their plan to exit the euro from its program.

[Velasco]

Out of the 428 REM candidates there are 214 men and 214 women.  This is so typical and smacks of quota politics that I deplore.

You are not bound to endorse La République En Marche. Personally I adore gender quotas and hope that all the 214 women get elected.

Merci, Monsieur Macron.

[Gustaf]

Out of the 428 REM candidates there are 214 men and 214 women.  This is so typical and smacks of quota politics that I deplore.  This by itself is enough for me not to want to back REM.  If having equal number of men and women are so important then why does Macron not demand that the presidency alternates between a man and a women.  Oh yeah, if they did that it would mean they will have to all vote for Le Pen in the just finished Prez election.

You're THAT afraid of women? Geez.

[Babeuf]

The gender quota is one of the best things Macron has done. A rare bright spot in the coming horror show.

[ApatheticAustrian]

someone has to do that "horror show" and i guess, it's still better for the more principled left if someone, who isn't explicit part of the left, does it.

[jaichind]

Out of the 428 REM candidates there are 214 men and 214 women.  This is so typical and smacks of quota politics that I deplore.  This by itself is enough for me not to want to back REM.  If having equal number of men and women are so important then why does Macron not demand that the presidency alternates between a man and a women.  Oh yeah, if they did that it would mean they will have to all vote for Le Pen in the just finished Prez election.

You're THAT afraid of women? Geez.

It appears so.  I am also against quotas on the basis of race nationality etc etc.  I guess I am afraid of anything that represents authority other than the White Man paradigm.   

[Babeuf]

someone has to do that "horror show" and i guess, it's still better for the more principled left if someone, who isn't explicit part of the left, does it.

From your previous posts I think (you can correct me if I'm wrong) that you believe that the "modernizing reforms" are inevitable and necessary, while simultaneously acknowledging that they are politically painful to carry out. I don't accept the first part of that premise so that's where we differ.

[jaichind]

Harris poll

REM  29 (+3)
LR     20 (-2)
FN     20 (-2)
FI/FG 14(+1)
PS        7 (-1)

REM seems to be in good shape to win a majority if this is true.  I guess REM main weakness would be weaker candidates without local organization that could hurt REM in a low turnout election.

[ApatheticAustrian]

someone has to do that "horror show" and i guess, it's still better for the more principled left if someone, who isn't explicit part of the left, does it.

From your previous posts I think (you can correct me if I'm wrong) that you believe that the "modernizing reforms" are inevitable and necessary, while simultaneously acknowledging that they are politically painful to carry out. I don't accept the first part of that premise so that's where we differ.

this is a respectful post, so i can totally acknowledge your position.

i am just convinced, that the "old-school-left"-system, consisting of strikes, very inflexible labour laws and a direct connection between pride and employment, on the NATIONAL level, isn't going to work anymore in a globalized world.....especially since many left parties have adapted to the more flexible scandinavian/german system.

i am a keynesian and a big fan of unions but imho not everything can be stopped/changed with spending and restrictive labour laws.

[Zuza]

Aren't these gender quotas enforced by law? I heard party can ignore this law but in that case it's public funding is reduced.

[Babeuf]

someone has to do that "horror show" and i guess, it's still better for the more principled left if someone, who isn't explicit part of the left, does it.

From your previous posts I think (you can correct me if I'm wrong) that you believe that the "modernizing reforms" are inevitable and necessary, while simultaneously acknowledging that they are politically painful to carry out. I don't accept the first part of that premise so that's where we differ.

this is a respectful post, so i can totally acknowledge your position.

i am just convinced, that the "old-school-left"-system, consisting of strikes, very inflexible labour laws and a direct connection between pride and employment, on the NATIONAL level, isn't going to work anymore in a globalized world.....especially since many left parties have adapted to the more flexible scandinavian/german system.

i am a keynesian and a big fan of unions but imho not everything can be stopped/changed with spending and restrictive labour laws.

Fair enough, thanks for the response. I have disagreements with parts of that, but I won't derail the thread further by expanding on them.

[Former President tack50]

Out of the 428 REM candidates there are 214 men and 214 women.  This is so typical and smacks of quota politics that I deplore.  This by itself is enough for me not to want to back REM.  If having equal number of men and women are so important then why does Macron not demand that the presidency alternates between a man and a women.  Oh yeah, if they did that it would mean they will have to all vote for Le Pen in the just finished Prez election.

Yeah, I agree. Quotas are a terrible method of having women as MPs.

Not like that would stop me from voting REM if I liked them though (I don't)

[SPQR]

Out of the 428 REM candidates there are 214 men and 214 women.  This is so typical and smacks of quota politics that I deplore.  This by itself is enough for me not to want to back REM.  If having equal number of men and women are so important then why does Macron not demand that the presidency alternates between a man and a women.  Oh yeah, if they did that it would mean they will have to all vote for Le Pen in the just finished Prez election.

Are you high?

[Tintrlvr]

Harris poll

REM  29 (+3)
LR     20 (-2)
FN     20 (-2)
FI/FG 14(+1)
PS        7 (-1)

REM seems to be in good shape to win a majority if this is true.  I guess REM main weakness would be weaker candidates without local organization that could hurt REM in a low turnout election.

The great advantage for EM is that they win almost any head-to-head run-off they make it to, so having the largest vote share in the first round means the vast majority of their candidates should win in the second round. I'd call at least 350 seats for EM if this poll is accurate.

[mvd10]

It could just be a post-election surge. Hamon also surged to 15-18% in the polls after his primary victory and Fillon even surged to 30% in some polls after he won the primaries. We'll see whether LREM still is at 29% in a month. I think they will win a majority though, like Tintrlvr said they will win nearly every run-off.

[Tintrlvr]

It could just be a post-election surge. Hamon also surged to 15-18% in the polls after his primary victory and Fillon even surged to 30% in some polls after he won the primaries. We'll see whether LREM still is at 29% in a month. I think they will win a majority though, like Tintrlvr said they will win nearly every run-off.

True - though France has a history of the President's party surging throughout the legislative election campaign, and there doesn't seem to be any particular reason to think that won't happen this time around. EM's main weakness is its lack of incumbents and of established politicians, but it doesn't seem like that is such a big deal in a system like France's, at least once you've won the Presidency.

[jaichind]

It could just be a post-election surge. Hamon also surged to 15-18% in the polls after his primary victory and Fillon even surged to 30% in some polls after he won the primaries. We'll see whether LREM still is at 29% in a month. I think they will win a majority though, like Tintrlvr said they will win nearly every run-off.

Yes.  On the other hand this poll was done before the REM candidates were announced.  I think the choice of PM might be a risk.  It might end up turning off at least on segment of the very wide REM coalition