French Legislative Election 2017

[Zuza]

Still, PCF will take their 2 or 3 %, and their results will be higher in the places where the Left is strong (e. g. exactly in the same places where PS or FI candidates have a chance to make into the 2nd round). Another 1 or 2 % in such constituencies can go to Lutte Ouvrière. All this means that most likely only in very few places there will be a leftist in the 2nd round.

[RogueBeaver]

Edouard Philippe will be PM.

[windjammer]

Jaichin I can assure you that there is a law that applies as well to the legislatives. The LRs were forced to pay a fine on 2012.


Regarding the PM, that's not surprising at all

[ApatheticAustrian]

what kind of conservative is phillippe?

[jaichind]

Still, PCF will take their 2 or 3 %, and their results will be higher in the places where the Left is strong (e. g. exactly in the same places where PS or FI candidates have a chance to make into the 2nd round). Another 1 or 2 % in such constituencies can go to Lutte Ouvrière. All this means that most likely only in very few places there will be a leftist in the 2nd round.

More importantly, FI/PG and PS-EELV will split the Left vote down the middle with neither bloc close to the 20% threshold.  I am sure in Left strongholds one of the two will make it to the second round but unless there are significant tactical voting in the average seat neither bloc seems poised to enter second round.

[RogueBeaver]

Juppé now denying it.

[jaichind]

what kind of conservative is phillippe?

It seems he was in PS before 2002.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Big ask, but does anybody have a list of which constituencies have the highest combined left vote and are most likely to have left candidates in the second round?

[Tintrlvr]

Edouard Philippe will be PM.

Hilarious that his Wikipedia article is a single line currently.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89douard_Philippe

[mvd10]

what kind of conservative is phillippe?

He was a Juppé supporter so probably a centrist. Definitely no Fillon or Sarkozy. Anyway this is a smart pick. People like Philippe are close enough to Macron to not upset centre-left voters and he might convince a bunch of centre-right voters with a centre-right PM.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Juppé now denying it.

Whoever leaked it was probably trying to rule him out. Now, in favor of who else, is the big question.

[Tirnam]

Agreement between Bayrou and LREM.
LREM has yet to formally accept the agreement this morning.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Agreement between Bayrou and LREM.
LREM has yet to formally accept the agreement this morning.

How many "winnable" seats did Bayrou extract?

[parochial boy]

Agreement between Bayrou and LREM.
LREM has yet to formally accept the agreement this morning.

How many "winnable" seats did Bayrou extract?

Not yet confirmed it will seem, but the 428 LREM candidates announced so far won't change.

If anyone is interested Libé have an interactive map of where LREM have announced candidates. I think you can start to get a decent picture of where the left might hold on from that.

http://www.liberation.fr/apps/2017/05/circonscriptions-en-marche-candidats/

A lot of incumbents in both PS and LR also feel pretty confident about their chances as they see the LREM candidates as being complete nobodies, and LREM don't have anything like the ground game.

[jaichind]

Not yet confirmed it will seem, but the 428 LREM candidates announced so far won't change.

If anyone is interested Libé have an interactive map of where LREM have announced candidates. I think you can start to get a decent picture of where the left might hold on from that.

http://www.liberation.fr/apps/2017/05/circonscriptions-en-marche-candidats/

A lot of incumbents in both PS and LR also feel pretty confident about their chances as they see the LREM candidates as being complete nobodies, and LREM don't have anything like the ground game.

Yes, this is what I figured.  It would be interesting to see how this plays out and if the Macron name is enough for LREM to win a large number of seats despite no ground game nor name recognition of most candidates.  If it were to work then now, during the honeymoon, would be time for it to work.  I think it still would depend on who the PM is.

[Zanas]

Political parties receive funding during the 5-year term on account of the number of votes they got in the latest legislative elections.

Provided they got 1% of the vote in the first round in 50 different constituencies, they get 1,42€ yearly for each vote they got in the whole country, including where they got less than 1% of the vote. Hence, when you vote for one of the relevant organizations, even if they have no chance to win, you at least provide them with 5x1,42= 7,10€.

Now, that subsidy is reduced if you don't run as many male and female candidates. Here's how it works.

You are ok if you stay inside the 51%-49% bracket in favor of either gender. Once you overcome this gap, your subisdy is reduced. Say a party runs 300 males and 277 females. The gap is 23, or 4% of the whole slate. The subsidy is reduced by 3/4 of this gap, in this case 3%. In this case, each vote will earn the party 1,42x0,97= 1,38€ yearly.

In 2012, the UMP had only ran ca. 1/4 female candidates. Their subisidy had therefore been cut by 3/4 of the 50% gap between the 75% male candidates and the 25% female candidates, so a loss of 37,5% of their financial subsidy.

There's also a totally different subisidy earned by parties who actually get candidates elected to Parliament (Assembly and Senate). This one gets them ca. 37 000€ per deputy elected (yearly, I think, but not sure, maybe for the whole term).

Are you not entertained?!

[RogueBeaver]

Philippe is PM.

[Tirnam]

22 LR-UDI elected officials call to "respond to Macron's offer" after Philippe's nomination.

And also DLF-FN alliance is broken.

[parochial boy]

Big ask, but does anybody have a list of which constituencies have the highest combined left vote and are most likely to have left candidates in the second round?

I'm sure someone has got better, but I found a not very great breakdown of results by constituency and came up with a total of 2 constituencies where Mélenchon + Hamon got over 50% (not including Poutou or Arthaud); Seine-St-Denis-2 and Seine-St-Denis-7

and another 26 where they got over 40% combined:
6 in Seine-St-Denis
4 in Paris
4 in Val de Marne
2 in Bouches-du-Rhône
2 in Val d'Oise
1 each in Hauts de Seine, St Pierre et Miquelon, Hérault, Haute-Garonne, Nord, Martinique, Seine Maritime and Gironde

[MAINEiac4434]

Philippe is PM.

You can't see it, but I'm sighing really hard right now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Philippe is PM.

You can't see it, but I'm sighing really hard right now.

A right-winger as PM is actually good news. I was hoping for a more prominent LR figure, like Bertrand, but this isn't too bad. I really hope it will lead to at least some defections from the right.

[parochial boy]

Philippe is PM.

You can't see it, but I'm sighing really hard right now.

I wonder if this might backfire, and picking a right wing PM might put off the left leaning voters who made up the backbone of Macron's support

[Gustaf]

Out of the 428 REM candidates there are 214 men and 214 women.  This is so typical and smacks of quota politics that I deplore.  This by itself is enough for me not to want to back REM.  If having equal number of men and women are so important then why does Macron not demand that the presidency alternates between a man and a women.  Oh yeah, if they did that it would mean they will have to all vote for Le Pen in the just finished Prez election.

You're THAT afraid of women? Geez.

It appears so.  I am also against quotas on the basis of race nationality etc etc.  I guess I am afraid of anything that represents authority other than the White Man paradigm.   

There is no meritocratic system for appointing political candidates. You seem to assume that if there is an equal number of women candidates it must somehow have been achieved unfairly but I don't really think that is true.

I'd note that I'm not for quotas myself either but I find it ridiculous to have as a litmus test for what to vote for.

[Chickpeas]

Will Philippe change his party allegiance to En Marche! if they win a majority of seats in the legislative election?

[Tirnam]

Macron successfully destabilized the left, and now appears to successfully destabilize the right: it's now 173 LR politicians who call to work with Macron.

Also the government will be revealed tomorrow but rumors are that Nicolas Hulot could be minister of Ecology. Very popular in France, a strong asset for ecology (while it wasn't Macron's priority) but also very independent guy, he wants a strong ministry with important powers, it could be a risk in the long run.