French Legislative Election 2017

[Tintrlvr]

I think LREM doesn't have candidates in most of the areas of Seine-Saint-Denis that are going to have the highest Muslim concentrations. But France doesn't usually track this data because it is illegal to ask about religion in a survey in France.

[Tirnam]

Poll Elabe

LREM: 33%
LR: 20%
FN: 19%
FI: 12%
PS: 6.5%

[MAINEiac4434]

Valls is clearly very proud of his party...

Valls is no longer member of the PS, the Mennuci poster is a fake posted by Mélenchon.

Despite not being the PS candidate for his district and declaring his party dead, he's still technically a member.

[Tirnam]

In fact yes, but he is under an expulsion procedure.

[Hifly]

I think LREM doesn't have candidates in most of the areas of Seine-Saint-Denis that are going to have the highest Muslim concentrations. But France doesn't usually track this data because it is illegal to ask about religion in a survey in France.

Who told you this? LREM is actually contesting every district in Seine-Saint-Denis.

[Tintrlvr]

I think LREM doesn't have candidates in most of the areas of Seine-Saint-Denis that are going to have the highest Muslim concentrations. But France doesn't usually track this data because it is illegal to ask about religion in a survey in France.

Who told you this? LREM is actually contesting every district in Seine-Saint-Denis.

Sorry, that might have been before the later rounds of new LREM candidates were announced.

[Tirnam]

OpinionWay

LREM: 28% (+1 since last week)
LR: 20% (=)
FN: 19% (-1)
FI: 15% (+1)
PS: 10% (-1)

Seats (based on the 535 seats in metropolitan France)
LREM: 310-330 (+30)
LR: 140-160 (-10)
PS: 25-30 (-15)
FI: 25-30 (+5)
FN: 10-15 (=)

[windjammer]

OpinionWay

LREM: 28% (+1 since last week)
LR: 20% (=)
FN: 19% (-1)
FI: 15% (+1)
PS: 10% (-1)

Seats (based on the 535 seats in metropolitan France)
LREM: 310-330 (+30)
LR: 140-160 (-10)
PS: 25-30 (-15)
FI: 25-30 (+5)
FN: 10-15 (=)

I think that is going to be the result in the end.

[Tirnam]

Constituencies polls by Ifop

Eure, 1st
Le Maire (economy minister, former LR, now LREM): 48%
Delacour (FN): 20%
Desprès (FI): 16%
Dioukhané (LR): 7%

Second round
Le Maire: 76%
Delacour: 24%

Essonne, 1st
Valls (DVG): 30%
Amrani (FI): 26%
Oger (FN): 12%
Varin (LR): 12%

Second round
Valls: 50%
Amrani: 50%

[windjammer]

Constituencies polls by Ifop

Eure, 1st
Le Maire (economy minister, former LR, now LREM): 48%
Delacour (FN): 20%
Desprès (FI): 16%
Dioukhané (LR): 7%

Second round
Le Maire: 76%
Delacour: 24%

Essonne, 1st
Valls (DVG): 30%
Amrani (FI): 26%
Oger (FN): 12%
Varin (LR): 12%

Second round
Valls: 50%
Amrani: 50%

It would be hilarious if Valls loses to someone from FI

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh, I'd definitely vote for the FI stooge over Valls. He needs to be gone.

[RodPresident]

Constituencies polls by Ifop

Eure, 1st
Le Maire (economy minister, former LR, now LREM): 48%
Delacour (FN): 20%
Desprès (FI): 16%
Dioukhané (LR): 7%

Second round
Le Maire: 76%
Delacour: 24%

Essonne, 1st
Valls (DVG): 30%
Amrani (FI): 26%
Oger (FN): 12%
Varin (LR): 12%

Second round
Valls: 50%
Amrani: 50%

It would be hilarious if Valls loses to someone from FI

Would Mélenchon running in this constituency be more smart for him? Not safe, but he served much time as senator for Essonne.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Constituencies polls by Ifop

Eure, 1st
Le Maire (economy minister, former LR, now LREM): 48%
Delacour (FN): 20%
Desprès (FI): 16%
Dioukhané (LR): 7%

Second round
Le Maire: 76%
Delacour: 24%

Essonne, 1st
Valls (DVG): 30%
Amrani (FI): 26%
Oger (FN): 12%
Varin (LR): 12%

Second round
Valls: 50%
Amrani: 50%

It would be hilarious if Valls loses to someone from FI

Would Mélenchon running in this constituency be more smart for him? Not safe, but he served much time as senator for Essonne.

That's what he'd do if he wasn't a self-serving piece of sh*t, yes.

[jaichind]

OpinionWay

LREM: 28% (+1 since last week)
LR: 20% (=)
FN: 19% (-1)
FI: 15% (+1)
PS: 10% (-1)

Seats (based on the 535 seats in metropolitan France)
LREM: 310-330 (+30)
LR: 140-160 (-10)
PS: 25-30 (-15)
FI: 25-30 (+5)
FN: 10-15 (=)

Historically has PS support on the first round been quite uniform or not?  I find it hard to believe with a vote share of 10% PS-PRG-EELV can win 25-30 seats especially with EELV running against PS in a good chunk of the seats.  The only way to explain it is if PS has a couple dozen strongholds where support has not drifted to FI or LREM AND LREM happens to have a weak candidate for the second round.

[parochial boy]

OpinionWay

LREM: 28% (+1 since last week)
LR: 20% (=)
FN: 19% (-1)
FI: 15% (+1)
PS: 10% (-1)

Seats (based on the 535 seats in metropolitan France)
LREM: 310-330 (+30)
LR: 140-160 (-10)
PS: 25-30 (-15)
FI: 25-30 (+5)
FN: 10-15 (=)

Historically has PS support on the first round been quite uniform or not?  I find it hard to believe with a vote share of 10% PS-PRG-EELV can win 25-30 seats especially with EELV running against PS in a good chunk of the seats.  The only way to explain it is if PS has a couple dozen strongholds where support has not drifted to FI or LREM AND LREM happens to have a weak candidate for the second round.

I assume it's because, where they do make it into the second round, they would have a good shot.

Especially in places like Paris-18 where LREM aren't standing or where the PS can position themselves as the main representatives of the left.

[jaichind]

Harris poll

LREM-MoDem          31  (-1)
FN                           19
LR-UDI                    18
FI                            14 (-2)
PS-PRG                     7 (+1)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Question: will Taubira survive in Guinea?

[peterthlee]

It has become increasingly intriguing that EM could have a comfortable majority of 400-410 seats in the Parliament whilst traditional lefties and righties are both reduced to marginal levels.

PS, which suffered from a catastrophe in this string of elections since its foundation, can actually be foreseen to be absorbed into EM largely (around 70-80%).

[jaichind]

Odoxa Poll

LREM-MoDem    29
FN                     17
LR                     15 (not sure if this includes UDI)
FI                      14

[Tirnam]

Question: will Taubira survive in Guinea?

Taubira is not running. (She wasn't running in 2012 either)

Odoxa Poll

LREM-MoDem    29
FN                     17
LR                     15 (not sure if this includes UDI)
FI                      14

This is a "wish of victory" poll, not voting intentions

[jaichind]

Odoxa Poll

LREM-MoDem    29
FN                     17
LR                     15 (not sure if this includes UDI)
FI                      14

This is a "wish of victory" poll, not voting intentions

Thanks for clarifying.  It seems Reuters also got it wrong just like me as well. 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKBN18P19A?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=592c238804d30173113840dc&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

[Tintrlvr]

OpinionWay

LREM: 28% (+1 since last week)
LR: 20% (=)
FN: 19% (-1)
FI: 15% (+1)
PS: 10% (-1)

Seats (based on the 535 seats in metropolitan France)
LREM: 310-330 (+30)
LR: 140-160 (-10)
PS: 25-30 (-15)
FI: 25-30 (+5)
FN: 10-15 (=)

Historically has PS support on the first round been quite uniform or not?  I find it hard to believe with a vote share of 10% PS-PRG-EELV can win 25-30 seats especially with EELV running against PS in a good chunk of the seats.  The only way to explain it is if PS has a couple dozen strongholds where support has not drifted to FI or LREM AND LREM happens to have a weak candidate for the second round.

I assume it's because, where they do make it into the second round, they would have a good shot.

Especially in places like Paris-18 where LREM aren't standing or where the PS can position themselves as the main representatives of the left.

Right - I assume most of the seats they are projecting as PS are seats where LREM has tacitly endorsed the PS candidate to begin with by not standing against them. Whether people like El Khomri are properly viewed as PS or not when they will probably join the Presidential majority after the election (while Hamon at least clearly plans to try to lead the rump PS into opposition) is a different question. It's also unclear whether there will be a formal party split over joining the Presidential majority or if Hamon and the anti-Macron factions of PS will allow the pro-Macron factions to stay while the anti-Macron factions sit in opposition and the pro-Macron factions with the majority.

[Tirnam]

Poll, Ipsos

LREM / MoDem: 29.5%
LR / UDI: 22%
FN: 18%
FI: 11.5%
PS: 9%

You will vote for
-demonstrate your support for Macron: 27%
-demonstrate your opposition to Macron: 28%
-neither: 45%

Does those personalities make you more inclined or less inclined to vote for their political movement?
Macron: more 32%, less 23%, neither 45%
Mélenchon: more 18%, less  42%, neither 40%
Le Pen: more 18%, less 46%, neither 46%
Baroin: more 12%, less 42%, neither 47%
Cambadélis: more 2%, less 46%, neither 52%

[jaichind]

Kantar TNS France poll





Looks like PS-EELV will not do that badly in terms of seats.

[Tirnam]

50 deputies with 8% of the vote ? I don't see how that could be possible.

BTW in a change to their position in 2012, Baroin announced yesterday that if necessary LR candidates could dropout of the runoff to avoid a FN victory.