French Legislative Election 2017

[windjammer]

My prediction, based on the results of the first round

LREM/MoDem: 453 (LREM 397, MoDem 56)
Right: 76 (LR 61, UDI 11, DVD 4)
Left: 26 (PS 12, PRG 2, EELV 1, DVG 11)
Radical Left: 12 (FI 6, PCF 6)
Far-right: 3 (FN 2, Ligue du Sud 1)
Others: 7

Who is the second FN to be elected? Bruno Bilde?

[Tirnam]

No, Hérault 6th with Ménard. But I think that Hérault 6th and Pas-de-Calais 12th with Bilde are undecided. Just maybe FN has a better chance with Ménard with the local implantation of her husband and maybe some good transfers of votes from LR to FN.

[windjammer]

No, Hérault 6th with Ménard. But I think that Hérault 6th and Pas-de-Calais 12th with Bilde are undecided. Just maybe FN has a better chance with Ménard with the local implantation of her husband and maybe some good transfers of votes from LR to FN.

I mean, I believe that Macron won Menard's circonscription, he didn't for those in Pas de calais

[Tirnam]

Yes, but when FN share of the vote went down 6 points in Pas-de-Calais 12th from the first round of the presidential election to the first round of legislative election, it went up 2 points in Hérault, 6th.

[windjammer]

Well we'll see but honestly I still believe that Bruno Bilde is the likeliest 2nd FN deputy.


I rate the chances of FN having only 1 deputy at 35%, possible but they should win in other places

[Antonio the Sixth]

I have to say, it would be pretty hilarious if MoDem managed to get more seats than LR.

[Kingpoleon]

Hollande's coalition in 2012 won ~57% of the seats, at ~57% turnout. That means that statistically speaking, he in total got 32.8303812824957% of a mandate. If Macron wins 430 seats, 74.52339688% of the seats, and gets about 48% turnout, he will have a 35.77% of a mandate. 81.45580589% of the seats, 470 seats, times 48% turnout is a mandate of 39.0987868284229%. Turnout would have to be ~44.05% and his seats won would have to be 430 in order for Macron's mandate to reach Hollande's mandate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hollande's coalition in 2012 won ~57% of the seats, at ~57% turnout. That means that statistically speaking, he in total got 32.8303812824957% of a mandate. If Macron wins 430 seats, 74.52339688% of the seats, and gets about 48% turnout, he will have a 35.77% of a mandate. 81.45580589% of the seats, 470 seats, times 48% turnout is a mandate of 39.0987868284229%. Turnout would have to be ~44.05% and his seats won would have to be 430 in order for Macron's mandate to reach Hollande's mandate.

This is a ridiculous metric.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Hollande's coalition in 2012 won ~57% of the seats, at ~57% turnout. That means that statistically speaking, he in total got 32.8303812824957% of a mandate. If Macron wins 430 seats, 74.52339688% of the seats, and gets about 48% turnout, he will have a 35.77% of a mandate. 81.45580589% of the seats, 470 seats, times 48% turnout is a mandate of 39.0987868284229%. Turnout would have to be ~44.05% and his seats won would have to be 430 in order for Macron's mandate to reach Hollande's mandate.

Wow, this guy sure likes his significant figures. I guess that means he knows what he's talking about!

[Kingpoleon]

Hollande's coalition in 2012 won ~57% of the seats, at ~57% turnout. That means that statistically speaking, he in total got 32.8303812824957% of a mandate. If Macron wins 430 seats, 74.52339688% of the seats, and gets about 48% turnout, he will have a 35.77% of a mandate. 81.45580589% of the seats, 470 seats, times 48% turnout is a mandate of 39.0987868284229%. Turnout would have to be ~44.05% and his seats won would have to be 430 in order for Macron's mandate to reach Hollande's mandate.

This is a ridiculous metric.

How do you propose finding the mandate? Turnout alone is nonsensical, and I believe 430 seats would be the largest majority since World War Two.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hollande's coalition in 2012 won ~57% of the seats, at ~57% turnout. That means that statistically speaking, he in total got 32.8303812824957% of a mandate. If Macron wins 430 seats, 74.52339688% of the seats, and gets about 48% turnout, he will have a 35.77% of a mandate. 81.45580589% of the seats, 470 seats, times 48% turnout is a mandate of 39.0987868284229%. Turnout would have to be ~44.05% and his seats won would have to be 430 in order for Macron's mandate to reach Hollande's mandate.

This is a ridiculous metric.

How do you propose finding the mandate? Turnout alone is nonsensical, and I believe 430 seats would be the largest majority since World War Two.

LREM-MoDem's vote as a percentage of registered voters would be slightly more defensible (that puts it at 15.4%, while PS+PRG+EELV was at 22.5%), but even that doesn't really mean that much. Reading the legislatives as reflecting the strength of a mandate is impossible because voters simply don't care about them.

[Zanas]

So I'm predicting a 45% turnout for the runoff. People just don't care.

It just occurred to me that what we continually said the last 10 years that "A GrossKoalition is absolutely impossible in France" was actually true : never would the two traditional parties of the right and the left have formed a negotiated majority. Instead they just scuttled their respective ships and merged into a big-tent wibbly-wobbly thing that is now effectively a MegaGroKo. We French sure like to do things like nobody else.

[adma]

And always remember: LREM's ace in the hole is that, being a "centre" party, they have this "everyone's second choice" thing going.  There isn't as much incentive to vote *against* them as there is with something of a more firmly "droite" or "gauche" or, of course, "FN" identity.

So...that's where a LREM/MoDem coalition could wind up with a Liverpool Council Labour share of the seats.

[Kingpoleon]

And always remember: LREM's ace in the hole is that, being a "centre" party, they have this "everyone's second choice" thing going.  There isn't as much incentive to vote *against* them as there is with something of a more firmly "droite" or "gauche" or, of course, "FN" identity.

So...that's where a LREM/MoDem coalition could wind up with a Liverpool Council Labour share of the seats.

That is indeed the strength of the centre.

"Ce que nous* avons fait pour les derniers mois n'a aucun précédent ni équivalent."
*Macron

It is unprecedented for a staunchly centrist party to have won such an overwhelming victory over the forces of extremism. The left and the right have had their turn at the helm of every major country, time after time after time. Now it is our turn! I ask the leftists and right wingers now observe what the centre can do when it has such an overwhelming majority.

[Zanas]

LREM is just another right-wing party, don't get all drama queen.

Girardin seems to have survived in Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, but just.

[Tintrlvr]

LREM is just another right-wing party, don't get all drama queen.

Girardin seems to have survived in Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, but just.

"Everyone to my right is a right-winger!"

[brucejoel99]

Right-winger Vincent Debraize, Mayor of Champignolles, has been arrested over the alleged attack on NKM which left her lying senselessly in a Paris street

[adma]

And always remember: LREM's ace in the hole is that, being a "centre" party, they have this "everyone's second choice" thing going.  There isn't as much incentive to vote *against* them as there is with something of a more firmly "droite" or "gauche" or, of course, "FN" identity.

So...that's where a LREM/MoDem coalition could wind up with a Liverpool Council Labour share of the seats.

That is indeed the strength of the centre.

"Ce que nous* avons fait pour les derniers mois n'a aucun précédent ni équivalent."
*Macron

It is unprecedented for a staunchly centrist party to have won such an overwhelming victory over the forces of extremism. The left and the right have had their turn at the helm of every major country, time after time after time. Now it is our turn! I ask the leftists and right wingers now observe what the centre can do when it has such an overwhelming majority.

As an ideally neutral observer, I like to downplay the "our".  Especially as it disregards the "centre is in the eye of the beholder" dilemma that so often trips up centrist parties--most notoriously the Clegg Dems...

[Maxwell]

LREM is just another right-wing party, don't get all drama queen.

Girardin seems to have survived in Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, but just.

"Everyone to my right is a right-winger!"

well LREM ran on the same right-wing labor reforms that basically sent PS to single digit approval ratings, so...

[warandwar]

And always remember: LREM's ace in the hole is that, being a "centre" party, they have this "everyone's second choice" thing going.  There isn't as much incentive to vote *against* them as there is with something of a more firmly "droite" or "gauche" or, of course, "FN" identity.

So...that's where a LREM/MoDem coalition could wind up with a Liverpool Council Labour share of the seats.

That is indeed the strength of the centre.

"Ce que nous* avons fait pour les derniers mois n'a aucun précédent ni équivalent."
*Macron

It is unprecedented for a staunchly centrist party to have won such an overwhelming victory over the forces of extremism. The left and the right have had their turn at the helm of every major country, time after time after time. Now it is our turn! I ask the leftists and right wingers now observe what the centre can do when it has such an overwhelming majority.

As an ideally neutral observer, I like to downplay the "our".  Especially as it disregards the "centre is in the eye of the beholder" dilemma that so often trips up centrist parties--most notoriously the Clegg Dems...

Not sure how you can be a "neutral observer" of politics!

[Antonio the Sixth]

LREM's policies are simply more of the same stuff that every government since 2002 has pursued. So if you think those governments were failures, I don't know what you're expecting.

[Tirnam]

First results in French overseas collectivities in the Atlantic. No major surprise, mostly some DVG elected, 2 LREM (in Guyana and Guadeloupe). In Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon the member of the government Girardin survives after a difficult first round, she is reelected with 52%.

Turnout is up, around 5-6 points, in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon it is up 16 points (75% turnout)

[parochial boy]

LREM's policies are simply more of the same stuff that every government since 2002 has pursued. So if you think those governments were failures, I don't know what you're expecting.

But this time its a former banker who was a cabinet minister in the previous government a new face!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

And always remember: LREM's ace in the hole is that, being a "centre" party, they have this "everyone's second choice" thing going.  There isn't as much incentive to vote *against* them as there is with something of a more firmly "droite" or "gauche" or, of course, "FN" identity.

So...that's where a LREM/MoDem coalition could wind up with a Liverpool Council Labour share of the seats.

If I was forced to vote, I'd vote for any party over these radical neoliberal frauds.

[Kingpoleon]

LREM is just another right-wing party, don't get all drama queen.

Girardin seems to have survived in Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, but just.

Supporting public spending at ~50% of your countries's GDP is only remotely right-wing in 3-5 democratic countries.