French Legislative Election 2017
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Author Topic: French Legislative Election 2017  (Read 97564 times)
IceAgeComing
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« Reply #825 on: June 18, 2017, 04:12:55 PM »

Valls's victory is rather dissapointing

I can't add much since my knowledge of France is limited - but the performance of the (wider) left in this election more broadly disappoints me (even though they've overperformed): and I dislike heavily places that use numbered seats in a single member district election since it makes working out was results mean harder
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #826 on: June 18, 2017, 04:13:58 PM »

Valls now officially won 50.3-49.7. Turnout only 36.6% in his district.

Yes !!

We have reports than he actually lost but than the mayorship of Corbeil-Essonne tampered with results.

Reports from whom?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #827 on: June 18, 2017, 04:14:58 PM »

Valls now officially won 50.3-49.7. Turnout only 36.6% in his district.

Yes !!

We have reports than he actually lost but than the mayorship of Corbeil-Essonne tampered with results.

Reports from whom?

The losing candidate AND camera crews (they were very obviously denied entry in the recount room).
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #828 on: June 18, 2017, 04:16:24 PM »

What is the highest number of seats LREM can realistically get now?
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Zanas
Zanas46
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« Reply #829 on: June 18, 2017, 04:17:17 PM »

Valls now officially won 50.3-49.7. Turnout only 36.6% in his district.

Yes !!

We have reports than he actually lost but than the mayorship of Corbeil-Essonne tampered with results.

Reports from whom?

The losing candidate AND camera crews (they were very obviously denied entry in the recount room).
Well it was clearly a mess, there will be a trial, and we'll see what the Conseil constitutionnel has to say about this. Being Corbeil and with Dassault's background, I wouldn't rule out a cancellation of the vote and a re-vote in a few months.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #830 on: June 18, 2017, 04:20:50 PM »

Hopefully FBM will have screwed up badly enough that Valls will be swept away.
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jaichind
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« Reply #831 on: June 18, 2017, 04:25:20 PM »

95% of the vote counted.

                Vote share     Seats won      Implied vote share in
                                                               contested districts
LREM+        48.93%           320                    54.4%
LR+             27.14%           128                    49.1%
PS+               7.52%            43                     48.9%
FI+                5.94%            23                     43.1%
FN+               9.15%            10                     43.7%

LREM and FI going up in terms of seats and vote share as more urban areas comes in.  LREM most likely end up with 350-355.
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Zanas
Zanas46
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« Reply #832 on: June 18, 2017, 04:25:29 PM »

It's official : 7/12 seats in Seine-Saint-Denis are FI or PCF (or both in a few cases) \o/
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #833 on: June 18, 2017, 04:26:03 PM »

Any idea why the exit polls overestimated LREM so much?
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jaichind
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« Reply #834 on: June 18, 2017, 04:27:20 PM »

Any idea why the exit polls overestimated LREM so much?

Not really.  Ipsos had LREM at 355 in its initial exit poll and that looks pretty close.  LREM might under-perform that a bit but that is within the margin of error.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #835 on: June 18, 2017, 04:29:50 PM »

Can FI-PCF hope for a few more seats? They're at 13 and 10 right now.
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Nathan
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« Reply #836 on: June 18, 2017, 04:30:32 PM »

I'm surprised there's any genuine enthusiasm for Valls even on this forum. I'd have thought trashy amoral fat cats like jaichind would prefer to take their neoliberalism straight, rather than adulterated with the icky trappings of softcore post-social-democracy.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #837 on: June 18, 2017, 04:31:15 PM »

It's official : 7/12 seats in Seine-Saint-Denis are FI or PCF (or both in a few cases) \o/

Perhaps you can explain how the UDI wins Seine-Saint-Dennis 5 when surrounded by the FI and COM?
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Zanas
Zanas46
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« Reply #838 on: June 18, 2017, 04:35:24 PM »

It's official : 7/12 seats in Seine-Saint-Denis are FI or PCF (or both in a few cases) \o/

Perhaps you can explain how the UDI wins Seine-Saint-Dennis 5 when surrounded by the FI and COM?
Jean-Christophe Lagarde has made a stronghold for himself in Drancy and has managed to bleed clientelism in the nieghboring communes via elected officiales in cantons etc. So it's now a very safe seat for him, not really for the right in general. Plus, it was never as much of a communist or socialist stronghold as the surroundings.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #839 on: June 18, 2017, 04:38:27 PM »

FI gets to 15, so I guess it will have its own group.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #840 on: June 18, 2017, 04:39:07 PM »

I'm surprised there's any genuine enthusiasm for Valls even on this forum.
Valls has been one of the few consistently pro-Jewish voices in France, which is very important to me.
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Nathan
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« Reply #841 on: June 18, 2017, 04:40:34 PM »

I'm surprised there's any genuine enthusiasm for Valls even on this forum.
Valls has been one of the few consistently pro-Jewish voices in France, which is very important to me.

That makes sense. Thanks for explaining.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #842 on: June 18, 2017, 04:44:30 PM »

LREM+Modem is at 352 so it depends if you included Bayrou's friends in your bet
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #843 on: June 18, 2017, 04:48:26 PM »

LREM+Modem is at 352 so it depends if you included Bayrou's friends in your bet

Okay, thanks.
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jaichind
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« Reply #844 on: June 18, 2017, 04:49:33 PM »

97% of the vote counted.

                Vote share     Seats won      Implied vote share in
                                                               contested districts
LREM+        48.94%           325                    54.5%
LR+             27.12%           130                    49.0%
PS+               7.62%            43                     49.6%
FI+                6.02%            25                     43.6%
FN+               9.01%            10                     43.0%

Only 33 seats left undecided.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #845 on: June 18, 2017, 04:53:57 PM »

Melenchon's potential seat, Bouches-du-Rhône 4, is looking like it may be the last seat to declare.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #846 on: June 18, 2017, 05:11:14 PM »

I was checking the results in Paris and see that LREM lost some votes in the second round compared to first round. Srategic voting to avoid a huge majority for Macron?

Paris 2nd
First Round: 18,463 Second Round: 18,347
Paris 4th
First Round: 17,726 Second Round 16,024 (would have won if hold all the votes)
Paris 14th
First Round: 17,654 Second Round: LREM 17,263
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #847 on: June 18, 2017, 05:14:01 PM »

The Interior Ministry seems to have stopped updating. Did they just go to sleep?
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Zanas
Zanas46
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« Reply #848 on: June 18, 2017, 05:16:05 PM »

I was checking the results in Paris and see that LREM lost some votes in the second round compared to first round. Srategic voting to avoid a huge majority for Macron?

Paris 2nd
First Round: 18,463 Second Round: 18,347
Paris 4th
First Round: 17,726 Second Round 16,024 (would have won if hold all the votes)
Paris 14th
First Round: 17,654 Second Round: LREM 17,263
Right-wing voters coming back home when they saw that LR was at risk of being wiped out.
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Vosem
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« Reply #849 on: June 18, 2017, 05:17:42 PM »

How much support is there within LR for Macronismo? Are successful candidates who Macron stood aside for (like Pierre-Yves Bournazel or Franck Riester, to give two examples from the Paris area) likely to stay put in the LR parliamentary group, form their own party, or cross the floor?

And what about PS? I noticed the one PS winner from the city of Paris, George Pau-Langevin, was a close Macron ally from before he was a very prominent national figure, and is also someone Macron stood aside for.

More broadly -- what happens to elements outside of LREM/MoDem that were elected with LREM/MoDem support?
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