French Legislative Election 2017

[jaichind]

Still 97% of the vote counted but a bunch of seats called.

                Vote share     Seats won      Implied vote share in
                                                               contested districts
LREM+        48.93%           334                    54.5%
LR+             27.06%           132                    48.9%
PS+               7.60%            43                     49.5%
FI+                6.07%            26                     44.0%
FN+               9.05%            10                     43.2%

Only 21 seats left undecided.

[Andrea]

59.85% for Melenchon in Bouche du Rhone 4

[Tintrlvr]

I was checking the results in Paris and see that LREM lost some votes in the second round compared to first round. Srategic voting to avoid a huge majority for Macron?

Paris 2nd
First Round: 18,463 Second Round: 18,347
Paris 4th
First Round: 17,726 Second Round 16,024 (would have won if hold all the votes)
Paris 14th
First Round: 17,654 Second Round: LREM 17,263

I think it might be more on differential turnout. Macron supporters turned out in big numbers in the first round while everyone else stayed home, but once it became clear Macron was going to win a majority, supporters of other parties came out bigger in the second round to keep the other parties afloat while Macron supporters were more likely to be complacent.

[Zinneke]

I'm surprised there's any genuine enthusiasm for Valls even on this forum. I'd have thought trashy amoral fat cats like jaichind would prefer to take their neoliberalism straight, rather than adulterated with the icky trappings of softcore post-social-democracy.

Valls is a pariah to some people, to others he encapsulated a left that was willing to tackle right-wing issues such as public security when he was Interior Minister. For a good part of Ayrault's government he was the most popular minister according to polls (sometimes after Fabius but Quai D'Orsay doesn't count)

How much support is there within LR for Macronismo? Are successful candidates who Macron stood aside for (like Pierre-Yves Bournazel or Franck Riester, to give two examples from the Paris area) likely to stay put in the LR parliamentary group, form their own party, or cross the floor?

And what about PS? I noticed the one PS winner from the city of Paris, George Pau-Langevin, was a close Macron ally from before he was a very prominent national figure, and is also someone Macron stood aside for.

More broadly -- what happens to elements outside of LREM/MoDem that were elected with LREM/MoDem support?

One presumes they vote with the government but stay with their party as long as their party tolerates this.

I was checking the results in Paris and see that LREM lost some votes in the second round compared to first round. Srategic voting to avoid a huge majority for Macron?

Paris 2nd
First Round: 18,463 Second Round: 18,347
Paris 4th
First Round: 17,726 Second Round 16,024 (would have won if hold all the votes)
Paris 14th
First Round: 17,654 Second Round: LREM 17,263

Right-wing voters coming back home when they saw that LR was at risk of being wiped out.

It'll be interesting to see where FN transfers go. Given that FN did not lead a black list campaign and gave little nationwide indications as to how to vote, I still feel a lot of parisian FN voters that are not part of the "groupuscules" are likely to be capable of voting LR.

[SunSt0rm]

De Rugy is running for presidency of the Assemblee

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So, there are 13 districts left to be declared who won and LREM+ have 341 (plus Annick Girardin) mandates so I guess they will barely have more than 350 MPs and some additional supporters from PS, PRG and LR. Still, probably Macron had greater appetite.

[Kingpoleon]

Ipsos final turnout estimate: 43%. European election level.

Good. Will draw attention to how farcical this system is.

It appears the turnout was down due to LREM voters not turning out as much as expected, rather than the other parties turning out as little as predicted.

[jaichind]

All seats counted

                Vote share     Seats won      Implied vote share in
                                                          contested districts
LREM+        49.11%           348                    54.6%
LR+            26.95%           136                    48.7%
PS+             7.62%            44                     49.0%
FI+              6.06%            27                     44.0%
FN+             8.95%            10                     42.4%

LREM+ had 2 seats, LR+ had 1 seat, and PS+ had 1 seat won in the first round so seat count are

LREM+    350
LR+        137
PS+         45
FI+         27
FN+        10

[adma]

I'm surprised there's any genuine enthusiasm for Valls even on this forum. I'd have thought trashy amoral fat cats like jaichind would prefer to take their neoliberalism straight, rather than adulterated with the icky trappings of softcore post-social-democracy.

You don't seem to account to those like myself who strategically choose to be neutral/fly-on-the-wall bystanders and who find that this hand-wringing over Valls (in either direction) to being a boring sausagefest by the sorts of poli-sci twerps and dorks who'd rather geek out over Game of Thrones in their off-time.  (And I *do* mean sausagefest--like, figuratively speaking, I'd be like the fair lady who tells them all "you're all creeps".)

Oh, and re La Croix's maps: death to paywalls.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, that is just great.

[jaichind]

PS+ seems to have a higher strike rate than LR+ even though the estimated vote share in seat contested seems to be around the same for both blocs.  The reason seems to be that out of all the seats that PS+ is contesting on the second round less than 70% are against LREM+ whereas for LR+ over 86% of their opponents are against LREM+

[jaichind]

I'm surprised there's any genuine enthusiasm for Valls even on this forum. I'd have thought trashy amoral fat cats like jaichind would prefer to take their neoliberalism straight, rather than adulterated with the icky trappings of softcore post-social-democracy.

Well, speaking just for myself, I am for Valls mostly because his opponent is FI.  If it was Valls vs LR I would obviously back LR.  Even in a Valls vs FN I think in the end I would be for Valls but it would be very close and quite lukewarm.  Of course Valls has many positive qualities from my point of view given that he is from a part of the political spectrum that I oppose.  Sort of how I feel about Andrew Cuomo.

[jaichind]

Turnout until 12:00 was even lower than in the 1st round, with only 17.8% (1st round: 19.2%)

Probably not more than 44-45% will vote today ... a new record low.

Wow.  I was guessing that LREM will under-perform (perhaps not even reaching 400 seats) because both core Right, core Left, and core FN voters will come out and if necessary tactically vote to slow down LREM.  I guess not. 

Oh well.  I was about the make a bold prediction earlier today that LREM will fall significantly short of 400 seat.  But the lower turnout scared me into silence.  I should have doubled down on my hunch and bet that lower turnout was actually lower LREM turnout.

[TheSaint250]

Didn't Valls say something pretty racist a few years back?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Didn't Valls say something pretty racist a few years back?

He's said a lot of crappy stuff about Roma, but that's par for course in France.

I think Valls represents a different sort of centrism to Macron - the former has more of a tough image, the latter a sort of technocratic TED talk style.

[Famous Mortimer]

Didn't Valls say something pretty racist a few years back?

He was in some immigrant ghetto and the government official showing him around said "there are people from 500 different countries in this neighborhood! Isn't that great!" and he replied "would be nice if one of those countries was France".

[adma]

Hasn't there been a French pattern (or at least, a record) of second round elections contradicting--almost by way of "correction"--the patterns implied by the first round? (I seem to recall at least one instance where the left didn't crater as expected in the second round.)

[DavidB.]

Great news -- Meyer Habib was re-elected!

[parochial boy]

Didn't Valls say something pretty racist a few years back?

He was in some immigrant ghetto and the government official showing him around said "there are people from 500 different countries in this neighborhood! Isn't that great!" and he replied "would be nice if one of those countries was France".

Manuel Valls, who was, of course, born in Barcelona.

He also once, off record, while showing a camera crew round a street market in a diverse part of Evry commented "get me some whites in here" to avoid giving the impression that the town was completely devoid of white people.

[DavidB.]

He also once, off record, while showing a camera crew round a street market in a diverse part of Evry commented "get me some whites in here" to avoid giving the impression that the town was completely devoid of white people.

Not too diverse then...

[Kringla Heimsins]

Well, that's kind of a relief. During the last weeks, all I saw were projections giving EM up to 425 seats. At least Macron won't be able to revise the Constitution easily.

Btw, Manuel Valls is a gigantic d!ck, and there was a definitive weird pattern in his election today - trailing by ~100, but leading by 300 after a recount in a specific precinct. I hope his election will be canceled for fraud, that would be quite the downfall for a former Premier Minister and once presidential hopeful.

[parochial boy]

He also once, off record, while showing a camera crew round a street market in a diverse part of Evry commented "get me some whites in here" to avoid giving the impression that the town was completely devoid of white people.

Not too diverse then...

Never been there so I can't comment, but one that has always surprised me about places like Aubervilliers and Nanterre is that there are a lot more white people than you might expect (they might all be Portugese though).

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I'm surprised there's any genuine enthusiasm for Valls even on this forum. I'd have thought trashy amoral fat cats like jaichind would prefer to take their neoliberalism straight, rather than adulterated with the icky trappings of softcore post-social-democracy.

You don't seem to account to those like myself who strategically choose to be neutral/fly-on-the-wall bystanders and who find that this hand-wringing over Valls (in either direction) to being a boring sausagefest by the sorts of poli-sci twerps and dorks who'd rather geek out over Game of Thrones in their off-time.  (And I *do* mean sausagefest--like, figuratively speaking, I'd be like the fair lady who tells them all "you're all creeps".)

You and I know very different types of women.

[Famous Mortimer]

Marine Le Pen elected and the FN's two incumbent MPs, Gilbert Collard and Jacques Bompard, re-elected.

Anything interesting about the other 5 FN members who got elected? Or are they just randos?

Florian Fillippot, the only other big name FNer, lost to a REM candidate.

[MaxQue]

He also once, off record, while showing a camera crew round a street market in a diverse part of Evry commented "get me some whites in here" to avoid giving the impression that the town was completely devoid of white people.

Not too diverse then...

Well, Évry is a dump. No wonder everyone who can leave does.