French Legislative Election 2017

[jaichind]

OpinionWay polled the legislative election if Macron would win next sunday. The only polled  metropolitan France without Corsica. Their poll shows:

EM: 249-285 deputies
LR/UDI: 200-210
PS: 28-43
FN: 15-25
FdG: 6-8

https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/legislatives-2017/0212035461141-sondage-en-marche-donne-gagnant-des-legislatives-2084198.php#xtor=CS1-33

EDIT: corrected to FN 15-25

FN at 15-25 is an amazing result for them and really represents a breakthrough in the two round election system  that is set up to stop them from winning seats.

[jaichind]

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If FG PS and EELV runs separately then  this sort of results will most likely lead to most of their candidates not making it to the second round.  And even when they do it will most likely be FG than PS and will be easily beaten by EM! or LR and could face defeat even when faced with FN.

[jaichind]

Harris poll

http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/05/Rapport-Harris-Sondage-Soir-du-Vote-2nd-tour-de-lelection-presidentielle-M6.pdf

Has

EM !       26
LR-UDI   22
FN          22
FG/FI      13
PS            8
EELV        3
DLF          3
PCF          2
LO           1

If turnout is around 60% and with the 12.5% threshold it seems EM !, LR-UDI, FN should qualify for a significant number of second round race with everyone else shut out.

[jaichind]

Is it possible UDI will work with EM! instead of LR?

My understanding is that UDI and LR already have an alliance worked out with UDI getting a certain bloc of seats.  It seems that PS-EELV has an alliance as well which will help a bit but if PS-EELV is at 11-12 as polls suggest that will also limit the number of seats they will get into the second round.

[jaichind]

One question I have is will PS-EELV, FG, and EM ! have an understanding that if in the second round it is two of them versus FN that the bloc with the smaller vote percentage would withdraw to allow the other face FN in a 1-on-1 battle?  I am pretty certain LR-UDI would not be part of such a pact.

[jaichind]

Yeah I forgot about that, even Montreuil might be a challenge for FI.
Also, all the noises coming out of EELV seems to suggest they going for double or nothing and refusing any electoral pacts. I imagine the PS will support them where the EELV brand is more electable, but Jadot basically tearing up the deal on the night of the first round...
This means potential PS vs PCF vs FI vs EELV (vs the Trotskyites)

Wait,  I thought PS already locked in an alliance with EELV back in March ?

[jaichind]

If the Harris poll is correct and FN gets 22% of the first-round vote, would this be outstanding?

 
 
In 2015 Front National had 25% in the departmental elections and 28% in the regional elections. In both cases they were the strongest party in the first round. So no, I wouldn't say that 22% would be anything special or outstanding.

But those were lower turnout elections where FN would have the edge.  Le Pen easily outpolled in terms of raw votes what FN polled back in the departmental and regional elections.  Also there is the factor of the protest vote during those local elections which are usually not transferable to national elections.  That said 22% for FN would be a slight letdown from those 2015 days but would easily exceed any FN first round results in previous legislative elections.  If this can be kept up then FN would be in the second round is a large number of races although it would only be good enough to win only a handful of seats.   

[jaichind]

So when is the actual deadline when we will officially know candidates?

Yeah.  The election is in a month and as far as I know EM ! does not have that many candidates set up yet although I guess MoDem will be in charge of nominating a bunch of them.  There are 577 seats so Macron better get going.  I guess a lot will depend on who the mystery PM that Macron will appoint which would give a sense of the ideological spectrum that EM ! will try to target. 

[jaichind]

Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday, could she win these constituencies and possibly more with triangulaires (thee-way races) in the legislative election? Or will the FN be hurted by the lack of name recognition of their candidates and stronger performances of LR?

The latter I am certain. Also, there will be turnout issues. People turned out to vote FN for Le Pen because she was high-profile and the race was high-profile, but I doubt they will turn out in anywhere near the same numbers for random FN candidate #32.

As you implied, most run-offs FN is in will not be straight fights with EM in any case (some will be against left-wing candidates who might be more compelling in certain parts of the Northeast and others will be against LR candidates or triangulaires with LR and EM -- also, many will be against incumbents, some of whom are quite entrenched).

Yeah.  In 2012 Le Pen got 17.9% of the vote but FN only got 13.6% of the vote in the subsequent legislative elections on the first round.  That said, the polls seems to indicate that FN has 21-23 support.  As long as it does not decline by election day there could very well be a bunch of {EM ! vs LR vs FN} second round races.   If the Le Pen second round vote can be transferred to FN then I can see FN gaining several dozen seats and could even hold the balance of power between EM ! and LR if LR somehow does well.

[jaichind]

The En Marche! party will now be called Republique en Marche, or Republic on the Move.  The group will announce the 577 candidates for the parliamentary seats on Thursday and won’t engage in alliances with others aside from the one already concluded with MoDem.

[jaichind]

Elabe poll

52% of French voters want President-elect Emmanuel Macron to obtain a majority in the National Assembly

55% of French voters believe Macron’s election won’t improve life in France

50% of French voters want Macron to unite the country and appease social tensions even if it means delaying economic reforms, while 48% would prefer that he implements deep reforms as soon as possible

[jaichind]

Benchmarks from the rest of the Fifth Republic to keep in mind for the inevitable hideous defeat of the Left...

1958: 50 seats (SFIO 40, PCF 10)
1968: 91 seats (FGDS 57, PCF 34)
1993: 91 seats (PS 53, PCF 24, Others 14)

Well, if you are going to define the Left as Left of REM then yes, this year I suspect the Left will crash below 1958 levels, especially they are going to be split 3 ways between PS-EELV, FG/FI and FCP.

[jaichind]

 La Tribune says Edouard Philippe, Republican mayor for Le Havre and deputy for Seine-Maritime, is the most likely to be appointed prime minister by Emmanuel Macron.

[jaichind]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/macron-apos-party-struggles-process-101416795.html

It seems like REM will only have 450 candidates announced today versus all 577

[jaichind]

Jean Pisani-Ferry, chief economic adviser to French President-elect Emmanuel Macron, says the new administration’s goal is to cut public spending by EU60 bln by the end of his term.

If so that really should mean that Macron should target a PM from the center-right with a REM majority or a REM-LR-UDI alliance if a REM majority is not possible.

[jaichind]

Looks like REM only has 428 candidates selected.  I guess their poaching campaign for LR MPs is not as successful as they had hoped ?

[jaichind]

Looks like REM will not run a candidate against Valls but seems to have rejected him as a candidate.

[jaichind]

REM candidate list includes 24 sitting PS MPs and 0 LR MPs.  It seems a lot of PS members applied but were rejected.

[jaichind]

Ok.  So it seems that for Valls seat, REM has rejected Valls as REM candidate but will not run a candidate against him versus just not nominating a candidate today.

[jaichind]

Ok.  So it seems that for Valls seat, REM has rejected Valls as REM candidate but will not run a candidate against him versus just not nominating a candidate today.

Why is Valls different from all the other PS candidates they nominated?

There is perception that Macron is merely the continuation of the failed Hollande presidency.  Given Valls is a key part of the Hollande team (as was Macron, at least he was part of the team) REM cannot risk nominating Valls for fear that it will make it easier to link Macron/REM with Hollande.

Of course REM is now stuck. To reject Valls and run a candidate against him makes Macron look ruthless and cutthroat to throw aside well-wishers that win to join his movement.  To back him risks turning Macron/REM into Hollande II.  So I guess they went with rejection but not run a candidate.

[jaichind]

Out of the 428 REM candidates there are 214 men and 214 women.  This is so typical and smacks of quota politics that I deplore.  This by itself is enough for me not to want to back REM.  If having equal number of men and women are so important then why does Macron not demand that the presidency alternates between a man and a women.  Oh yeah, if they did that it would mean they will have to all vote for Le Pen in the just finished Prez election.

[jaichind]

Marine Le Pen’s closest aide Florian Philippot said he would quit the National Front if the party decided to scrap their plan to exit the euro from its program.

[jaichind]

Out of the 428 REM candidates there are 214 men and 214 women.  This is so typical and smacks of quota politics that I deplore.  This by itself is enough for me not to want to back REM.  If having equal number of men and women are so important then why does Macron not demand that the presidency alternates between a man and a women.  Oh yeah, if they did that it would mean they will have to all vote for Le Pen in the just finished Prez election.

You're THAT afraid of women? Geez.

It appears so.  I am also against quotas on the basis of race nationality etc etc.  I guess I am afraid of anything that represents authority other than the White Man paradigm.   

[jaichind]

Harris poll

REM  29 (+3)
LR     20 (-2)
FN     20 (-2)
FI/FG 14(+1)
PS        7 (-1)

REM seems to be in good shape to win a majority if this is true.  I guess REM main weakness would be weaker candidates without local organization that could hurt REM in a low turnout election.

[jaichind]

It could just be a post-election surge. Hamon also surged to 15-18% in the polls after his primary victory and Fillon even surged to 30% in some polls after he won the primaries. We'll see whether LREM still is at 29% in a month. I think they will win a majority though, like Tintrlvr said they will win nearly every run-off.

Yes.  On the other hand this poll was done before the REM candidates were announced.  I think the choice of PM might be a risk.  It might end up turning off at least on segment of the very wide REM coalition