French Legislative Election 2017

[Zinneke]

There's already some great media narratives cooking up, with people like François Baroin threatening Bruno Le Maire with a dissident candidacy if he becomes part of the Macron machine (hopefully not).

Some points/questions I have for maybe the French posters to hypothesise on:

• Whether the France Insoumise crashes like FdG in 2011, or is this now a genuine social-political movement in communities that is not just willing to turn out for Méluche?
• Whether LR decides to go Ni-Ni in the case of 1rst round drop out, and whether this will split the party - esp. in the South where they rely on PS-antifascist votes as well as their hard right stance
• Will Le Pen have her blacklist ready again, if she even leads the FN into the next election? I imagine the black list will be more about which people are souverainistes, in order to tempt the voters
• What will happen in communities where Modem-PS was basically the political divide, and where both endorsed En Marche

[Zinneke]

Whatever happened to the really small centrist satellite parties that are part of the centre right last time round?

They became UDI

• Whether the France Insoumise crashes like FdG in 2011, or is this now a genuine social-political movement in communities that is not just willing to turn out for Méluche?

Maybe, but knowing that still in many electoral districts there will be both candidates of PCF and FI or even PG and FI I guess FI result will be probably much weaker than Melenchon as for the whole country. Although Laurent today said that PCF still want to continue talks but I can't tell if there are any chances for that (knowing their earlier quarrels before the presidential elections I doubt).

Yeah I forgot about that, even Montreuil might be a challenge for FI.
Also, all the noises coming out of EELV seems to suggest they going for double or nothing and refusing any electoral pacts. I imagine the PS will support them where the EELV brand is more electable, but Jadot basically tearing up the deal on the night of the first round...
This means potential PS vs PCF vs FI vs EELV (vs the Trotskyites)

[Zinneke]

Yeah I forgot about that, even Montreuil might be a challenge for FI.
Also, all the noises coming out of EELV seems to suggest they going for double or nothing and refusing any electoral pacts. I imagine the PS will support them where the EELV brand is more electable, but Jadot basically tearing up the deal on the night of the first round...
This means potential PS vs PCF vs FI vs EELV (vs the Trotskyites)

Wait,  I thought PS already locked in an alliance with EELV back in March ?

Yeah but Jadot seemed quite pissed with the whole thing after round 1. And he is clearly not in charge of that party anymore. Just speculating.

For Macron it is best that the left stays splintered. EM can gain many seats in a scenario of triangulaire of EM vs LR vs FN with the support of the left, which I imagine will occur in many seats.

- Who is in charge now and leads the PS for the legislative election? Hamon?

Cambadélis (lol) or probably Le Foll.

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No idea, but apparently Macron has said if they run under a PS banner against his candidates, they will not be ministers.

[Zinneke]

By the way, could EELV (or a part of it) join Macron's coalition?

The reformist wing of EELV have already backed Macron (De Rugy, who took part in the PS primary). They broke off way back when part of the EELV joined the PS frondeurs in voting against the government.

https://www.letemps.ch/monde/2015/08/28/verts-francais-se-divisent-fond-derive-gauchiste

WHo knows if Macron includes them, it depends on what weight they have their constituencies. I gather De Rugy is quite popular.

[Zinneke]

I think the FN will gain seats by virtue of the Republican Front being weaker, especially with the demise of the PS. Macron probably backs himself enough to not withdraw candidates in case of triangulaire. It will depend on the local politics too.

[Zinneke]

Valls joining EM is Macron's first presidential blunder.

The second will be Bruno Le Maire.

[Zinneke]

Valls won't be LREM candidate in his constituency.

Could he run in another constituency? Or just say " it" and run as an independent in his own constituency? (is he well liked there in the first place?)

I think he'll run in his constituency.
The fact that he didn't even think to confirm his switch with the higher ups of EM (i.e EM himself) before announcing it, is just staggeringly bad political strategy.
PS have started an exclusion procedure against him.

Hamon has started his own movement without leaving the PS. I guess they will hold a congress andh e hopes to take a control of the party from there.

[Zinneke]

He's named his ministers.
Bayrou at Justice
Le Drian at foreign affairs
Gerard Collomb at interior
Hulot at "ecological transition"
Bruno ing Le Maire at economy.

[Zinneke]

He's named his ministers.
Bayrou at Justice
Le Drian at foreign affairs
Gerard Collomb at interior
Hulot at "ecological transition"
Bruno ing Le Maire at economy.

More people from the right beside Le Maire? I don't recognize the others

Full list here :

https://www.rtbf.be/info/monde/detail_france-la-composition-du-nouveau-gouvernement-devoilee-ce-mercredi?id=9608223

Gérald Darmanin is LR. I think thats all.

[Zinneke]

Le Mairethinks he is a big deal. Hopefully this is only the beginning and LR will end up splitting.

FTFY

Honestly I don't get why people rate this guy. Everything that is wrong with politics. And failed miserably in both the UMP leadership vs a washed out Sarko and in the primaries when at the start people were genuinely touting him as the third man ahead of Fillon.

[Zinneke]

Ugh Mélenchon needs to f**k off. What a piece of sh*t. I'd honestly vote for the LREM guy over him in that constituency if that's the choice.

Really? Given that Macron's cabinet makes it look like he intends to govern as a more socially liberal version of LR, I would have thought it was crucial to put as many left-wingers in parliament as remotely possible.

The French left will never be able to rebuild as long as Mélenchon has any influence within it, because all Mélenchon wants is to destroy any left-wing force that isn't his own personality cult. He doesn't care about actually changing people's lives. He's happy to stay in the opposition forever, as long as it gives him the role of a hero. He's a self-serving megalomaniac clown and the left-wing opposition to FBM deserves better.

Sounds more like Corbyn. Melenchon actually came within a hair's breadth of the runoff, had Hamon dropped out, it would've happened. Do you have any other beef with Melenchon besides his supposed opposition fetishism?

His entire strategy has been to direct all his efforts against the PS and other left-wing parties. Someone who does that has no interest in building a force that can actually win elections and enact meaningful changes. Oh, sure, maybe some day he will be President at the rates things are going these days, but that doesn't mean he'll be able to win a majority, or do much good with it if it's not made entirely of yes-men.

That is exactly what any sane guy would do. If I were Melenchon, I would do the same & you would do it. He needs to grow his party so that it becomes the largest left party & for that most of his voters will come from the PS & for that he has to go hard after the PS. After he becomes the de facto left leader, he should try & enlarge the coalition & shouldn't mind aligning or even supporting PS in odd cases. That is how you grow - Any business or a political party ! Common sense !

I am not supporting Melenchon here, his economic agenda is too far left, he is probably a shade better than Macron (who will govern center-right in economics) but this is how the world words. My personal preference is the PS & Hamon, but Hollande has left PS in the verge of ruin. I hope Hamon rebuilds the party, he is a good politician & a decent person & more preferable to Melenchon!

Most of the PS voters appear to have already gone to Macron.

[Zinneke]

Constituency polls by Ifop

Bouches-du-Rhône, 4th
Mélenchon (FI): 38%
Versini (LREM): 24%
Mennuci (PS): 13%
Marti (FN): 12%
Biaggi (LR): 10%

Runoff: Mélenchon at 53%

Rhône, 6th
Bonnell (LREM): 30%
Vallaud-Belkacem (PS): 19%
Legendre (FI):17%
Haziza (LR): 13%

Runoff: Bonnell at 60% against NVB, 62% against Legendre

NVB is a quite popular figure of PS, at least on the left. Veyssierre's projection has her at 12.5%, so she outperforms that, but it's still very weak

Is Royale going to run in La Rochelle again?

[Zinneke]

Hamon was hardly loyal to the PS after Valls moved into Matignon. To expect Valls and other soc-dems to do the same is laughable.

Anyway, its a silly blame game that we've seen in Britain, Spain, Italy. These soc-dem parties have succumbed to the Maastricht Treaties and Washington Consensus undermining the hard left, and the financial crisis undermining the soc-dems. There is no point in trying to do the splits and reconcile these two political circles yet.

[Zinneke]

Apparently French people are going to give a legislative majority to ANYONE who's been elected President, no matter the circumstances. I'm sure Panzergirl is taking note.

Ridiculous comparison. While the republican front is still fractured, transfers to FN in second round would be far lower than to a catch all centrist government with both left and right ministers.

[Zinneke]

From Le Canard Enchaîné, the mood of political leaders

-Macron projects more than 400 deputies, "almost too many"
-Cambadélis (PS) considers PS having less than 15 deputies
-Baroin (LR): "we are going to take a big trashing"

That means Le Pen will be the official opposition to Macronisme, which is not good...

[Zinneke]

Benoit Hamon is defeated.

This is absolutely f**king depressing.

They are rejecting party politics. The Socialist Party, in both our countries, is the embidoment of everything that is wrong with party politics : clientalism, spin, tit-for-tat spats, favours for the boys (and their family). Onfray sums it up here at around 13min

https://youtu.be/ft375UHpLys?t=12m59s  

The PS apparatchiks, including Hamon in his party-centered prism. disapearing is just about the only positive other than FN's poor result. We're going back to the presidential system that De Gaulle intended when he wrote the 5th Republic. Macron will have the power to captain the nation rather than play the referee. If you don't like it, vote for 6th Republic parties.

Pyrénées-Atlantiques, 4th (Jean Lassalle)

Corrégé (LREM): 25.41%
Lassalle: 17.71%

Lassalle better win, damnit.

He will get the regionalist votes I think

[Zinneke]

I thnk the PCF and FI really blocked themselves in some places.
Spoiler candidates leaving LREM with big pluralities and up against either LR or FN.

Secterianism at its finest.

[Zinneke]

Eh, in your shoes I'd hold my nose and vote NKM because 1/ she has some semblance of an ecologist platform and 2/ she is not insane like some senior figures in her party, and thus if the LREM ship would sink I'd rather have her wing at the front of LR that the ex-Sarkozystes. Other than that spot on.

[Zinneke]

Who is the favourite between Valls and the FI candidate?

[Zinneke]

I'm surprised there's any genuine enthusiasm for Valls even on this forum. I'd have thought trashy amoral fat cats like jaichind would prefer to take their neoliberalism straight, rather than adulterated with the icky trappings of softcore post-social-democracy.

Valls is a pariah to some people, to others he encapsulated a left that was willing to tackle right-wing issues such as public security when he was Interior Minister. For a good part of Ayrault's government he was the most popular minister according to polls (sometimes after Fabius but Quai D'Orsay doesn't count)

How much support is there within LR for Macronismo? Are successful candidates who Macron stood aside for (like Pierre-Yves Bournazel or Franck Riester, to give two examples from the Paris area) likely to stay put in the LR parliamentary group, form their own party, or cross the floor?

And what about PS? I noticed the one PS winner from the city of Paris, George Pau-Langevin, was a close Macron ally from before he was a very prominent national figure, and is also someone Macron stood aside for.

More broadly -- what happens to elements outside of LREM/MoDem that were elected with LREM/MoDem support?

One presumes they vote with the government but stay with their party as long as their party tolerates this.

I was checking the results in Paris and see that LREM lost some votes in the second round compared to first round. Srategic voting to avoid a huge majority for Macron?

Paris 2nd
First Round: 18,463 Second Round: 18,347
Paris 4th
First Round: 17,726 Second Round 16,024 (would have won if hold all the votes)
Paris 14th
First Round: 17,654 Second Round: LREM 17,263

Right-wing voters coming back home when they saw that LR was at risk of being wiped out.

It'll be interesting to see where FN transfers go. Given that FN did not lead a black list campaign and gave little nationwide indications as to how to vote, I still feel a lot of parisian FN voters that are not part of the "groupuscules" are likely to be capable of voting LR.

[Zinneke]

Bayrou has left the government.

[Zinneke]

Why can't Melenchon play nice with the Communists?

Pierre Laurent endorsed Macron in the second round and Mélenchon took issue with it.

[Zinneke]

There is precedence of Left-wing unity. Mitterrand made everybody understand that the "Programme Commun" had to be led by the person who stood at the centre of the Left, in between the social liberals and the hard-line ML communists. I imagine the PCF thought Mélenchon would be a new Mitteramd rather than the unaccommodating bastard he is.

[Zinneke]

Parliamentary groups have been finalised; The UDI-Constructifs group has 38 members. The PC has formed the Democratic and Republican Left group with Martinician, Réunionese, and Guianese deputies.

Is there a reason why MoDem has its own group and not part of REM's group? Also, does anyone know if the EELV deputy joined the Socialist group or is a non-inscrite?

Why didn't the far left (Melenchon's FI and PCF) unite?

Discounting the personal reasons mentioned above, it has to do with the PCF endorsing Macron in the second round. A lot of the recent sectarianism in the far left is arguably defined by how they respond to the eventual PS or in this case LREM second round candidate. The NPA for example did not join the Front de Gauche in 2012 because Mélenchon was still ready to back Hollande vs Sarkozy. Similarly here, Mélenchon's abstentionist policy was poorly received by the PCF, who still have an antifascist reflex.