French Legislative Election 2017

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LREM says that Valls must apply for a nomination like everybody else, and they say that a candidate is already nominated in Valls' constituency, they will "analize" the situation.

And I don't know if it has already been mentioned but the apparent frontrunner for Macron's PM is Edouard Philippe, LR mayor of Le Havre.

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Valls won't be LREM candidate in his constituency.

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Valls is clearly an exception. He and Macron have bad relationship, he is unpopular and an important figure of the last 5 years, not a good choice when you propose the renewal. (And it was quite arrogant from Valls to declare himself candidate for the presidential majority without any agreement with Macron).
But today he suffers a total public humiliation, even if I don't like him it's a little bit hard.

After the South-West, after Hénin-Beaumont, after Essonne, the electoral Tour de France of Jean-Luc Mélenchon continues, now candidate in Marseille.
By the way Mélenchon's movement and the Communist Party fail to find an agreement for the elections.

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The PS published yesterday its legislative platform, 22 proposals.
-7 come from Hamon's presidential platform
-4 come from Macron
-5 are a consensus between Hamon and Macron positions
-4 are common proposals from Hamon and Macron
-2 are new proposals

And apparently around 100 PS deputies have asked for a LREM nomination.

So obviously the PS is closer to Macron than Mélenchon. Maybe the PS won't join officially the presidential majority but they will rather support than oppose.

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La Tribune says Edouard Philippe, Republican mayor for Le Havre and deputy for Seine-Maritime, is the most likely to be appointed prime minister by Emmanuel Macron.

Shouldn't the PM be someone who isn't neither from PS nor from Les Republicains? (at least to keep with the "neither left nor right"/"centrist"/whatever theme)

François Bayrou maybe?

The center-left and centrist voters are already with LREM and won't change their minds. The goal now is to attract center-right voters, you need a center-right PM, LR is a plus to embarrass this party and its voters.
Le Canard Enchaîné published yesterday that a good part of Juppeist members of LR are ready to join LREM if the PM is a center-right, LR.

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76% of the voters approve the LREM candidates
67% approve the decision about Valls

About the project
LREM: 39% a good project, 35% a bad project
FI: 27% a good project, 47% a bad project
LR: 24% a good project, 51% a bad project
FN: 24% a good project, 58% a bad project
PS: 17% a good project, 57% a bad project

Harris poll for RMC

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Agreement between Bayrou and LREM.
LREM has yet to formally accept the agreement this morning.

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22 LR-UDI elected officials call to "respond to Macron's offer" after Philippe's nomination.

And also DLF-FN alliance is broken.

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Macron successfully destabilized the left, and now appears to successfully destabilize the right: it's now 173 LR politicians who call to work with Macron.

Also the government will be revealed tomorrow but rumors are that Nicolas Hulot could be minister of Ecology. Very popular in France, a strong asset for ecology (while it wasn't Macron's priority) but also very independent guy, he wants a strong ministry with important powers, it could be a risk in the long run.

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22 ministers and secretaries, 11 men, 11 women, 13 from political parties, 9 from "civil society"

-5 from LREM
-2 from MoDem
-2 from PS
-2 from PRG
-2 from LR (or now ex-LR)

Foreign affairs ministry is now Europe and foreign affairs ministry.
Defense ministry is now Armed forces ministry.

Only 4 ministers have been minister in the past (Bayrou, Le Maire, Le Drian, Girardin)

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LREM will not present a candidate in 55 constituencies.
So no LREM candidate face to Riester (LR), Le Maire (LR), Apparu (LR), Le Foll (PS), Touraine (PS), El Khomri (PS), ...

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LREM will not present a candidate in 55 constituencies.
So no LREM candidate face to Riester (LR), Le Maire (LR), Apparu (LR), Le Foll (PS), Touraine (PS), El Khomri (PS), ...

Why are they doing this?  Did they make tactical deals with the existing LR or PS incumbent ?

Well Le Maire is now in the government, that sound fair to not present a candidate against him (especially since the ministers who will be defeated will have to resign).

For the others Macron hopes that they will join the majority after the election.

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Harris Poll (post Edouard Philippe appointment of PM)

LREM    32 (+3)
LR-UDI  19 (-1)
FN         19 (-1)
FI/PG     15 (+1)
PS-PRG    6 (-1)
EELV       3 (-)
DLF         3 (-)
PCF         2

PS-PRG-EELV together form 9% which seems to low to get to second round in a meaningful number of seats.

Can all of this alliances out of party systems backfire hard in legislatives? LR, FN, FI and PS voters uniting against LREM candidates?

No, absolutely no.
PS, LR, FI voters are not going to vote FN against LREM.
LR voters are not going to vote FI against LREM
PS voters are not going to vote LR against LREM
..

In the same poll 60% want a majority for Macron, but only 23% an absolute majority, 20% a relative majority with a center-left alliance, 17% a relative majority with a center-right alliance.

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Harris Poll (post Edouard Philippe appointment of PM)

LREM    32 (+3)
LR-UDI  19 (-1)
FN         19 (-1)
FI/PG     15 (+1)
PS-PRG    6 (-1)
EELV       3 (-)
DLF         3 (-)
PCF         2

PS-PRG-EELV together form 9% which seems to low to get to second round in a meaningful number of seats.

If this is the result in the end, En Marche is going to get 400 deputies.

According to this website, that would mean 427 deputies for LREM / MoDem. Of course it's just a national projection, every constituency has a different local context.

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OpinionWay

LREM: 27% (280-300 deputies out of 535, without Corsica, overseas and French abroad)
LR: 20% (150-170)
FN: 20% (10-15)
FI: 14% (20-25)
PS: 11% (40-50)

PS is 5 points above its score in the Harris poll, LREM 5 points behind its score in the Harris poll. The presidential polls were more consistent.

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PS is 5 points above its score in the Harris poll

That's partially because Harris counts PS and EELV separately (together they would have 9 %).

Right, but since EELV and PS will face on in more than 400 constituencies it doesn't make sense to do that.

Poll, Harris Interactive, Bouches-du-Rhône, 4th (13-04)

Mélenchon (FI): 35%
Versini (LREM): 25%
Menucci (PS): 13%
Marti (FN): 12%
Biaggi (LR): 9%

Second round between Mélenchon and Versini, Mélenchon wins between 52% and 60%

(this poll is really close to the projection made by the website that I mentioned earlier)

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They have an alliance for around 100 constituencies. EELV endorses 52 PS candidates, PS endorses 49 EELV candidates.

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NKM in the 2nd constituency of Paris will have two contenders on the right, the mayor of the VIth arrondissement of Paris and Henri Guaino.

Not sure how she will survive in a constituency where Macron did well.

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NKM in the 2nd constituency of Paris will have two contenders on the right, the mayor of the VIth arrondissement of Paris and Henri Guaino.

Not sure how she will survive in a constituency where Macron did well.

Well, there is an LRM candidate, Gilles Legendre, but afaik he's a nobody, and NKM is quite Macron-compatible, and quite a good match for this constituency. Incidentally, this is where I'm registered to vote! But I'm leaning on not voting at all for now.

Yes, but in this political environment I'm sure that being a nobody in politics isn't a disadvantage.
She might be a perfect for the constituency fit but the deep division in the right could be fatal. For her, I'm more afraid of the mayor of the 6th arrondissement who, maybe, is more appealing than her to the right-wing voters in the 6th and 7th arrondissement of Paris, while the average voter in the 5th might stay with the LREM candidate.
I think she still will be in the runoff but maybe in a weak position against the LREM.


Another situation in Paris, in the 18th constituency, LREM has no candidate but both PS candidate (famous Myriam El-Khomri) and LR candidate have made clear that they will be in the presidential majority.

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Constituency polls by Ifop

Bouches-du-Rhône, 4th
Mélenchon (FI): 38%
Versini (LREM): 24%
Mennuci (PS): 13%
Marti (FN): 12%
Biaggi (LR): 10%

Runoff: Mélenchon at 53%

Rhône, 6th
Bonnell (LREM): 30%
Vallaud-Belkacem (PS): 19%
Legendre (FI):17%
Haziza (LR): 13%

Runoff: Bonnell at 60% against NVB, 62% against Legendre

NVB is a quite popular figure of PS, at least on the left. Veyssierre's projection has her at 12.5%, so she outperforms that, but it's still very weak

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Hamon supports PCF candidate against Valls. He also supports PCF/EELV candidates against various PS candidates (El-Khomri for example).

So a former PS presidential candidate who wants to defeat PS candidates, shouldn't he be excluded from PS?

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So a former PS presidential candidate who wants to defeat PS candidates, shouldn't he be excluded from PS?

How exactly Hamon proves that he is loyal to his party? The man who cried about the traitors during the presidential election, the others can't support somebody outside the PS but Hamon can?

Valls is clearly very proud of his party...

Valls is no longer member of the PS, the Mennuci poster is a fake posted by Mélenchon.

Hamon supports PCF candidate against Valls. He also supports PCF/EELV candidates against various PS candidates (El-Khomri for example).

So a former PS presidential candidate who wants to defeat PS candidates, shouldn't he be excluded from PS?

Valls is not a PS candidate, in any case.

Valls is not, El-Khomri is a PS candidate, Boutih is a PS candidate yet Hamon supports the PCF candidate against him, Bapt is a PS candidate and Hamon supports the EELV candidate against him.

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Ifop, poll

LREM: 31%
LR/UDI: 19%
FN: 18%
FI: 15%
PS: 7%

No seats projection, but they expect a wave for LREM, very few FI deputies and less than 30 seats for PS.

Contexte analysis (free access only today).
They don't have the numbers, but it seems that it's around 400 deputies for LREM, 100 for the right, 50 for the left (PS, FI), 24 for FN.

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Poll Elabe

LREM: 33%
LR: 20%
FN: 19%
FI: 12%
PS: 6.5%

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In fact yes, but he is under an expulsion procedure.