French Legislative Election 2017

[SunSt0rm]

For Macron it is best that the left stays splintered. EM can gain many seats in a scenario of triangulaire of EM vs LR vs FN with the support of the left, which I imagine will occur in many seats.

- Who is in charge now and leads the PS for the legislative election? Hamon?
- What are Valls, Royal etc going to do? Will they join the EM for the parliamentary election or for the PS or not at all?
- Does anyone have an idea who Macron is going to choose as PM. And anyone know when he is going to announce it

[SunSt0rm]

Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday, could she win these constituencies and possibly more with triangulaires (thee-way races) in the legislative election? Or will the FN be hurted by the lack of name recognition of their candidates and stronger performances of LR?

[SunSt0rm]

He's named his ministers.
Bayrou at Justice
Le Drian at foreign affairs
Gerard Collomb at interior
Hulot at "ecological transition"
Bruno ing Le Maire at economy.

More people from the right beside Le Maire? I don't recognize the others

[SunSt0rm]

LREM will not present a candidate in 55 constituencies.
So no LREM candidate face to Riester (LR), Le Maire (LR), Apparu (LR), Le Foll (PS), Touraine (PS), El Khomri (PS), ...

Why are they doing this?  Did they make tactical deals with the existing LR or PS incumbent ?

Maybe they are also not able to find capable candidates to field all constituencies. Also some of them might join Macron after the election

[SunSt0rm]

First results

French abroad, 1st (North America)
Lescure (LREM): 54.26%
Lefebvre* (LR): 13.37%
Langlois (FI): 12%
Chantrel (PS): 9.13%

Runoff Lescure - Lefebvre

French abroad, 2nd (South America) (80% in)
Forteza (LREM): 43.32%
Conorado* (FI-EELV): 24.24%
Drouhaud (LR): 10.36%

Runoff Forteza-Conorado

(* = incumbent)

No run off North america when Lescure gets over 50 percent?!

You need to get 25% of all registered voters as well as a majority of votes to be elected in the first round, turnout was only 19% so there will be a run off.

Whats the point of that rule? Has anyone ever lost while getting more than 50% of the votes in the first round?

[SunSt0rm]

Voting intention in each scenario for the second round. Missing LREM vs FI tbh

[SunSt0rm]

RTBF exit poll

LREM 32%
LR 20,5%
FN 18%
FI 11%
PS 6%

If this poll is true, it means a complete collapse of the left
 

[SunSt0rm]

First exit poll

LREM: 30
LR: 19-20
FN: 17
FI: 12
PS: 7-8

by whom?

Belgian newspaper

https://www.rtbf.be/info/monde/detail_elections-en-france-la-participation-en-baisse-a-midi-a-19-24?id=9630709

[SunSt0rm]

I wonder how many candidates will actually win 50%+ today, but will have to go to Round 2 because of the crappy turnout (requirement) today ...

The threshold to get to second round is 12.5% of registered voter.  I forgot, What is the threshold to win on the first round?

25% registered voters

[SunSt0rm]

Exit Poll:

LREM-MoDem 32.2%
LR-UDI 21.5%
FN 14%
FI 11%
PS 10.2%
EELV 3%

LREM-MODem 390-430
LR-UDI 85-125
PS 20-35
FI 11-21
FN 3-10
Others 7-12

[SunSt0rm]

Is there a site, where I can see the result of each constituency prefereably on a map

[SunSt0rm]

Its not votes, but % of communes

[SunSt0rm]

Exit poll updated. LREM is projected to have a bigger majority

LREM-MoDem 415-455
LR-UDI-DVD 70-110
PS-DVG 20-30
FI-PCF 8-18
FN 1-5

[SunSt0rm]

So the only PS candidates that are probably going to survive are the ones that had no LREM candidate against them or are from Outre Mer.

Valls says to qualify for the second round with 25%, a FI candidate received 17% according to him

[SunSt0rm]

Melenchon 33.21
Versini 22.27

Is that enough for Melenchon? Its not very convincing

[SunSt0rm]

Did anyone find an example of a district where 3 candidates made it to the second round?  I could not find one.

There is only 1

https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/resultats/aube-10/circonscription-01/

[SunSt0rm]

Constitiuency Map with second placers

[SunSt0rm]

Who is the favourite between Valls and the FI candidate?

Ifop had it 50-50 a while ago. They predicted 30-24 for Valls in the first round, it became 25-18. third is LR with 12%, FN has 11%, DVD 8% and PCF 8%. I have no idea whether the right wing vote will help Valls or not, but I think he can squeeze it.

[SunSt0rm]

I am happy that Macron will get a majority, but having 80% isnt healthy. I would be even tempted to vote for a opposition party with these numbers

I see that there is even a chance that MoDem becomes the second largest party in the Assemblee, I assume they will form a faction seperate from LREM. I assume that UDI will form a faction then if they have 15 deputees. So there will be probably be four or six faction in the next assemblee. LREM, MoDem, LR, PS and possibly UDI and FI-PCF

[SunSt0rm]

Most seats left are from Paris and other big cities

You can also assume that LREM will sweep the French Expats seats as well

[SunSt0rm]

LREM for the first time having a majority without MoDem

[SunSt0rm]

I was checking the results in Paris and see that LREM lost some votes in the second round compared to first round. Srategic voting to avoid a huge majority for Macron?

Paris 2nd
First Round: 18,463 Second Round: 18,347
Paris 4th
First Round: 17,726 Second Round 16,024 (would have won if hold all the votes)
Paris 14th
First Round: 17,654 Second Round: LREM 17,263

[SunSt0rm]

LREM has a majority now, 293 seats with less than 40 seats to count (including 11 expats seats)

[SunSt0rm]

De Rugy is running for presidency of the Assemblee