French Legislative Election 2017

[Kingpoleon]

Get the f**k out of this thread you dumbass.

Lol, sorry, but I really would like to see EM's success replicated elsewhere, particularly in the UK. Plus, Corbyn really could become PM soon enough, and I think it'd be a disaster.

"Flawless, beautiful" to a tyranny-of-the-centre fault.  That is, boring as f**k.  The only un-boring thing being the plethora of first-round knockouts for sitting parliamentarians (incl. Hamon).

Maybe you do, but I don't mind politics being boring at all.

The think is, Britain was led by Flawless Beautiful Centrists from 1997-2007 and from 2010-2016. In case you hadn't noticed,  on both occasions it ended in a complete disaster.

Didn't like all recent premierships end in disaster in the UK? 2007-2010 and 2016-(hopefully 2017) probably won't be rememebered well either.

Well arguably Brown and May were both just doing a bad job of mopping up after the disasters cause by their predecessors (although that is probably quite a kind way of looking at both of them).

Alternatively, the UK has become the Weimar Germany of the 21st century

All of Europe is really Weimar Germany at this point.

Does that make Macron/Merkel Hitler with such large majorities?

[Kingpoleon]

The unprecedented majority will have a mandate simply because of how large it appears set to be. 280 seats with turnout at 56% is less impressive and less of a mandate than 425+ seats with turnout at 48%.

[Kingpoleon]

The unprecedented majority will have a mandate simply because of how large it appears set to be. 280 seats with turnout at 56% is less impressive and less of a mandate than 425+ seats with turnout at 48%.

Which is why non-LREM voters could better stay home at this point -- if turnout suddenly drops to 38% instead of the expected 48% the picture will be different...

Considering polls aren't taking into account turnout, I really feel like the correlation thereof lends legitimacy to the mandate of Macron.

[Kingpoleon]

this is not the netherlands, imho, the left vote isn't dead, it's just diminished by tactical voters and splitting.

Macron has bit a huge chunk out of Sarkozy and Hollande voters. I don't think a majority of those are coming back. We'll see LREM(~35%), LR-UDI(~20%), FN(~17.5%), FI(~17.5%), and PS(~10%) for a while. Obviously the exact amounts will change, LREM's vote total will shift between the two blocs, but for now, this system has five major factions and that's how it will stay for a good amount of time.

[Kingpoleon]

Hollande's coalition in 2012 won ~57% of the seats, at ~57% turnout. That means that statistically speaking, he in total got 32.8303812824957% of a mandate. If Macron wins 430 seats, 74.52339688% of the seats, and gets about 48% turnout, he will have a 35.77% of a mandate. 81.45580589% of the seats, 470 seats, times 48% turnout is a mandate of 39.0987868284229%. Turnout would have to be ~44.05% and his seats won would have to be 430 in order for Macron's mandate to reach Hollande's mandate.

[Kingpoleon]

Hollande's coalition in 2012 won ~57% of the seats, at ~57% turnout. That means that statistically speaking, he in total got 32.8303812824957% of a mandate. If Macron wins 430 seats, 74.52339688% of the seats, and gets about 48% turnout, he will have a 35.77% of a mandate. 81.45580589% of the seats, 470 seats, times 48% turnout is a mandate of 39.0987868284229%. Turnout would have to be ~44.05% and his seats won would have to be 430 in order for Macron's mandate to reach Hollande's mandate.

This is a ridiculous metric.

How do you propose finding the mandate? Turnout alone is nonsensical, and I believe 430 seats would be the largest majority since World War Two.

[Kingpoleon]

And always remember: LREM's ace in the hole is that, being a "centre" party, they have this "everyone's second choice" thing going.  There isn't as much incentive to vote *against* them as there is with something of a more firmly "droite" or "gauche" or, of course, "FN" identity.

So...that's where a LREM/MoDem coalition could wind up with a Liverpool Council Labour share of the seats.

That is indeed the strength of the centre.

"Ce que nous* avons fait pour les derniers mois n'a aucun précédent ni équivalent."
*Macron

It is unprecedented for a staunchly centrist party to have won such an overwhelming victory over the forces of extremism. The left and the right have had their turn at the helm of every major country, time after time after time. Now it is our turn! I ask the leftists and right wingers now observe what the centre can do when it has such an overwhelming majority.

[Kingpoleon]

LREM is just another right-wing party, don't get all drama queen.

Girardin seems to have survived in Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, but just.

Supporting public spending at ~50% of your countries's GDP is only remotely right-wing in 3-5 democratic countries.

[Kingpoleon]

Ipsos final turnout estimate: 43%. European election level.

Good. Will draw attention to how farcical this system is.

It appears the turnout was down due to LREM voters not turning out as much as expected, rather than the other parties turning out as little as predicted.