French Legislative Election 2017

[Bumaye]

If the Harris poll is correct and FN gets 22% of the first-round vote, would this be outstanding?

 
 
In 2015 Front National had 25% in the departmental elections and 28% in the regional elections. In both cases they were the strongest party in the first round. So no, I wouldn't say that 22% would be anything special or outstanding.

[Bumaye]

Harris Poll (post Edouard Philippe appointment of PM)

LREM    32 (+3)
LR-UDI  19 (-1)
FN         19 (-1)
FI/PG     15 (+1)
PS-PRG    6 (-1)
EELV       3 (-)
DLF         3 (-)
PCF         2

 
 
So in 10 days EM's lead went from 4 points up to 13 points compared to LR. Seems like Macron's strategy is working well so far. If it would stay that way how many seats would EM roughly get?

[Bumaye]

http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/05/Rapport-Harris-Indeed-Intentions-vote-elections-legislatives-LCP.pdf  
  
Harris has kinda confirmed yesterdays poll:  
  
EM + MoDem: 32%  
FN: 19%  
LR + UDI: 18% (-1)  
FI: 16% (+1)  
PS: 6%  
EELV: 3%  
DF: 3%  
PCF: 2%  

[Bumaye]

I just noticed that in the latest Opinion Way Poll the left wing parties (LO, NPA, PCF, FI, ECO, EELV, PS, PRG, DVG) have 29% combined, as much as the centrist EM/MoDem. It's kinda stupid that they for one reason or the other don't work with each other to push for the common left course.