French Legislative Election 2017

[Tintrlvr]

Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday, could she win these constituencies and possibly more with triangulaires (thee-way races) in the legislative election? Or will the FN be hurted by the lack of name recognition of their candidates and stronger performances of LR?

The latter I am certain. Also, there will be turnout issues. People turned out to vote FN for Le Pen because she was high-profile and the race was high-profile, but I doubt they will turn out in anywhere near the same numbers for random FN candidate #32.

As you implied, most run-offs FN is in will not be straight fights with EM in any case (some will be against left-wing candidates who might be more compelling in certain parts of the Northeast and others will be against LR candidates or triangulaires with LR and EM -- also, many will be against incumbents, some of whom are quite entrenched).

[Tintrlvr]

Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday, could she win these constituencies and possibly more with triangulaires (thee-way races) in the legislative election? Or will the FN be hurted by the lack of name recognition of their candidates and stronger performances of LR?

The latter I am certain. Also, there will be turnout issues. People turned out to vote FN for Le Pen because she was high-profile and the race was high-profile, but I doubt they will turn out in anywhere near the same numbers for random FN candidate #32.

As you implied, most run-offs FN is in will not be straight fights with EM in any case (some will be against left-wing candidates who might be more compelling in certain parts of the Northeast and others will be against LR candidates or triangulaires with LR and EM -- also, many will be against incumbents, some of whom are quite entrenched).

Yeah.  In 2012 Le Pen got 17.9% of the vote but FN only got 13.6% of the vote in the subsequent legislative elections on the first round.  That said, the polls seems to indicate that FN has 21-23 support.  As long as it does not decline by election day there could very well be a bunch of {EM ! vs LR vs FN} second round races.   If the Le Pen second round vote can be transferred to FN then I can see FN gaining several dozen seats and could even hold the balance of power between EM ! and LR if LR somehow does well.

I can't see FN doing better in the first round of the legislatives than Le Pen did in the first round of the presidential election. Their absolute ceiling first round is therefore 21%, but we're probably looking at more like 16-18%, consistent with prior drop-offs. It's not just a matter of turnout and candidate recognition for them, too. There are going to be left-wing candidates who are much better fits for, e.g., rural Aisne than Melenchon or Hamon (or Macron) in the legislatives competing with FN for votes also.

[Tintrlvr]

Harris poll

REM  29 (+3)
LR     20 (-2)
FN     20 (-2)
FI/FG 14(+1)
PS        7 (-1)

REM seems to be in good shape to win a majority if this is true.  I guess REM main weakness would be weaker candidates without local organization that could hurt REM in a low turnout election.

The great advantage for EM is that they win almost any head-to-head run-off they make it to, so having the largest vote share in the first round means the vast majority of their candidates should win in the second round. I'd call at least 350 seats for EM if this poll is accurate.

[Tintrlvr]

It could just be a post-election surge. Hamon also surged to 15-18% in the polls after his primary victory and Fillon even surged to 30% in some polls after he won the primaries. We'll see whether LREM still is at 29% in a month. I think they will win a majority though, like Tintrlvr said they will win nearly every run-off.

True - though France has a history of the President's party surging throughout the legislative election campaign, and there doesn't seem to be any particular reason to think that won't happen this time around. EM's main weakness is its lack of incumbents and of established politicians, but it doesn't seem like that is such a big deal in a system like France's, at least once you've won the Presidency.

[Tintrlvr]

How is this a quota? They didn't stop anyone from running.

Of course it is.  REM has 428 positions to fill as those with a REM ticket.  Out of the 19,000 or so candidates that applied REM choose among the candidates such so that the 428 candidates picked are exactly 214 male and 214 female.  That is a quota.  

Of course any of the 19,000 candidates rejected are free to run as an independent but the application process was for the REM candidate of which can be only 428 of them.

For one, LREM didn't nominate candidates everywhere. If the other 19,000-odd people were actually qualified, surely they would have been run in one of the other 150-odd seats where LREM is not fielding a candidate.

For two, I am amused at the presumptious implication that there couldn't possibly have been an equal number of qualified women as men. Perhaps the quota even worked in favor of the men!

[Tintrlvr]

Looks like François Bayrou is furious over the REM list that includes 24 PS MPs and only 35 on the list are from MoDem.  Mr Bayrou told Le Nouvel Observateur magazine that he and Macron had agreed before the election that about a quarter of the constituencies would be allocated to MoDem, while the remaining three quarters would be represented by REM. He said this represents the weight of the contribution he provided during Macron’s campaign.

This is actually something of a financial blow for MoDem - they were hoping for about 100 constituencies; including 30 "winnable" constituencies; in order to hopefully get 15 people elected - enough to form a parliamentary group in the assembly and receive associated funds.

So if MoDem genuinenly only have 35 candidates in there, they could be losing out on quite a lot of funding; and they are fairly cash strapped as it is/

Did MoDem even have 100 people who could have been candidates? My impression was that the party was moribund before Macron. Bayrou had even lost his own seat.

[Tintrlvr]

Edouard Philippe will be PM.

Hilarious that his Wikipedia article is a single line currently.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89douard_Philippe

[Tintrlvr]

It seems LREM nominated more candidates recently to its list. Any LR defectors in there ?

Most of the new candidates were MoDem, to appease Bayrou.

[Tintrlvr]

They have an alliance for around 100 constituencies. EELV endorses 52 PS candidates, PS endorses 49 EELV candidates.

I cannot believe this. PS is about to face total wipe-out and single digit seats and they cannot get a total alliance with EELV in all seats.

I think most of the seats with two candidates are no-hopers anyway, and they appease big personalities. But never underestimate the French left's ability to shoot itself in the foot even after the other leg has already been shot clean off.

[Tintrlvr]

I think LREM doesn't have candidates in most of the areas of Seine-Saint-Denis that are going to have the highest Muslim concentrations. But France doesn't usually track this data because it is illegal to ask about religion in a survey in France.

[Tintrlvr]

I think LREM doesn't have candidates in most of the areas of Seine-Saint-Denis that are going to have the highest Muslim concentrations. But France doesn't usually track this data because it is illegal to ask about religion in a survey in France.

Who told you this? LREM is actually contesting every district in Seine-Saint-Denis.

Sorry, that might have been before the later rounds of new LREM candidates were announced.

[Tintrlvr]

OpinionWay

LREM: 28% (+1 since last week)
LR: 20% (=)
FN: 19% (-1)
FI: 15% (+1)
PS: 10% (-1)

Seats (based on the 535 seats in metropolitan France)
LREM: 310-330 (+30)
LR: 140-160 (-10)
PS: 25-30 (-15)
FI: 25-30 (+5)
FN: 10-15 (=)

Historically has PS support on the first round been quite uniform or not?  I find it hard to believe with a vote share of 10% PS-PRG-EELV can win 25-30 seats especially with EELV running against PS in a good chunk of the seats.  The only way to explain it is if PS has a couple dozen strongholds where support has not drifted to FI or LREM AND LREM happens to have a weak candidate for the second round.

I assume it's because, where they do make it into the second round, they would have a good shot.

Especially in places like Paris-18 where LREM aren't standing or where the PS can position themselves as the main representatives of the left.

Right - I assume most of the seats they are projecting as PS are seats where LREM has tacitly endorsed the PS candidate to begin with by not standing against them. Whether people like El Khomri are properly viewed as PS or not when they will probably join the Presidential majority after the election (while Hamon at least clearly plans to try to lead the rump PS into opposition) is a different question. It's also unclear whether there will be a formal party split over joining the Presidential majority or if Hamon and the anti-Macron factions of PS will allow the pro-Macron factions to stay while the anti-Macron factions sit in opposition and the pro-Macron factions with the majority.

[Tintrlvr]

Poking around France24's map, I have an inkling that MoDem candidates did significantly and noticeably worse than LREM candidates in their constituencies. I'm curious if this was caused mainly by center-left voters liking MoDem less than LREM due to its clearly center-right origins and sometimes choosing parties of the left where LREM wasn't on the ballot, by low-information voters who wanted to vote for Macron's candidates not connecting MoDem and LREM, looking for an LREM candidate and then scattering when they couldn't find one, or if MoDem generally was assigned tougher seats on the whole. Each explanation seems plausible.

[Tintrlvr]

Does anyone has a list of how many second round districts are

LREM-MoDem vs LR-UDI-Misc Right
LREM-MoDem vs FI
LREM-MoDem vs FN
LREM-MoDem vs PS-PRG-Misc Left
LR-UDI-Misc Right vs FI
LR-UDI-Misc Right vs FN
LR-UDI-Misc Right vs PS-PRG-Misc Left
FN vs FI
FN vs PS-PRG-Misc Left
FI vs PS-PRG-Misc Left

If no one else is doing this, I may tally it up tomorrow.

[Tintrlvr]

LREM/MoDem: leading in 449 constituencies, will be in the runoff in 513 constituencies.
LR/UDI/DVD: leading in 67 constituencies, will be in the runoff in 300 constituencies.
FN: leading in 20 constituencies, will be in the runoff in 118 constituencies.
PS/EELV/DVG: leading in 27 constituencies, will be in the runoff in 73 constituencies.
FI/PCF: leading in 8 constituencies, will be in the runoff in 69 constituencies.

I think all EELV candidates were eliminated in the first round, which has got to be apocalyptic for the party. Any counter-examples?

[Tintrlvr]

Not voting is obviously profoundly dumb (and I would say that casting a blank vote instead of voting for whoever the marginally lesser evil does not strike me as a very useful way to make your voice heard, but I guess I can respect this), but the entire point of Ned Stark's character is to demonstrate that you can't really have the attitude he does and expect to accomplish a whole lot.

To be fair (?) to the Ned Starks of the world, he ultimately fails because of some dumb decisions that were not necessarily on principle (warning Cersei of his intentions in advance, e.g., which was intended to avoid her children being killed, but he also could have provided for their safety easily enough himself after the fact).

(This conversation is squarely on topic.)

[Tintrlvr]

A first runoff with one candidate, in the Aveyron 2nd the LR candidate drops out. The LREM candidate is the only one to stand Sunday.

"We have to do a lucid analysis, the constituency is historically left. In addition, it is impossible to close the gap. We must listen to the popular will and withdraw "

(results in the first round: LREM 38,72%, LR 20,18%)

This is weird. Why drop out now? Not like there's any real media attention - and the election is in less than a week. Does this mean they won't hold a run-off election? At this point I doubt that would even save money as everything should be printed and booked.

[Tintrlvr]

A first runoff with one candidate, in the Aveyron 2nd the LR candidate drops out. The LREM candidate is the only one to stand Sunday.

"We have to do a lucid analysis, the constituency is historically left. In addition, it is impossible to close the gap. We must listen to the popular will and withdraw "

(results in the first round: LREM 38,72%, LR 20,18%)

Is there some sort of scandal related to this LR candidate.  Why drop out now ?  39 vs 20 is not that insurmountable ?

It is insurmontable

Agree, although this doesn't really explain the rationale for dropping out when there are only five days to go. I'd understand more if the runoff campaigns lasted for a month.

[Tintrlvr]

LREM is just another right-wing party, don't get all drama queen.

Girardin seems to have survived in Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, but just.

"Everyone to my right is a right-winger!"

[Tintrlvr]

LREM is just another right-wing party, don't get all drama queen.

Girardin seems to have survived in Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, but just.

"Everyone to my right is a right-winger!"

well LREM ran on the same right-wing labor reforms that basically sent PS to single digit approval ratings, so...

It's not right-wing to reform labor markets when your labor market is as stultified as France's.

[Tintrlvr]

I was checking the results in Paris and see that LREM lost some votes in the second round compared to first round. Srategic voting to avoid a huge majority for Macron?

Paris 2nd
First Round: 18,463 Second Round: 18,347
Paris 4th
First Round: 17,726 Second Round 16,024 (would have won if hold all the votes)
Paris 14th
First Round: 17,654 Second Round: LREM 17,263

I think it might be more on differential turnout. Macron supporters turned out in big numbers in the first round while everyone else stayed home, but once it became clear Macron was going to win a majority, supporters of other parties came out bigger in the second round to keep the other parties afloat while Macron supporters were more likely to be complacent.