French Legislative Election 2017

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As a guideline, here's the first round presidential map by constituency--hopefully, a second round map is forthcoming...

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Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday,

Is there a map available?

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Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday,

Is there a map available?

Here: http://www.laprovence.com/article/presidentielle-2017/4439716/presidentielle-les-resultats-du-second-tour-par-circonscription.html

Edit: here is a better one, but only for constituencies won by Le Pen.

The La Provence map/results site seems to have gone subscription-only.  Is there someplace else where second-round presidential figures + maps ***by constituency*** are available--***where I do not need to subscribe?!?***

*Please* help.

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Like here, you get results by department, and by commune.  But not by constituency.  (And I can't figure out the site within where to get Excel files.)

*****I. Hate. Paywalls.*****

https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Elections/Les-resultats/Presidentielles/elecresult__presidentielle-2017/(path)/presidentielle-2017/

[adma]

Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday,

Is there a map available?

Here: http://www.laprovence.com/article/presidentielle-2017/4439716/presidentielle-les-resultats-du-second-tour-par-circonscription.html

Edit: here is a better one, but only for constituencies won by Le Pen.

The La Provence map/results site seems to have gone subscription-only.  Is there someplace else where second-round presidential figures + maps ***by constituency*** are available--***where I do not need to subscribe?!?***

*Please* help.

Here

Half good.  Gives shares; not figures.  (Is there a Ministère de l'Intérieur link to figures?  I knew there was one for the first round via Excel, but I forgot it.  Is there one for the second round?)

[adma]

Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday,

Is there a map available?

Here: http://www.laprovence.com/article/presidentielle-2017/4439716/presidentielle-les-resultats-du-second-tour-par-circonscription.html

Edit: here is a better one, but only for constituencies won by Le Pen.

The La Provence map/results site seems to have gone subscription-only.  Is there someplace else where second-round presidential figures + maps ***by constituency*** are available--***where I do not need to subscribe?!?***

*Please* help.

Here

Half good.  Gives shares; not figures.  (Is there a Ministère de l'Intérieur link to figures?  I knew there was one for the first round via Excel, but I forgot it.  Is there one for the second round?)

Going back to the original French Presidential Election thread, it would seem that I *might* have gotten my first-round-by-constituency Excel data, figures and percentages and all, via data.gouv.fr--I tried that now, but it went 502 Bad Gateway on me.  (What happened?  I'm all for open data)

Best I can hope for, maybe, is if any of the present Legislative election results sites include presidential numbers (*not* just shares) by constituency for comparison's sake.  (So, this is still not an off-topic inquiry.)

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A flawless, beautiful mandate. I feel bad for Hamon and PS, but they were due for a wipeout when their president had a single-digit approval rating.

Perhaps in the not too distant future Corbyn can become PM, f**k everything up and alienate everyone, and then an upstart liberal party led by without the recent baggage of the LibDems can dominate everything. One can dream.

"Flawless, beautiful" to a tyranny-of-the-centre fault.  That is, boring as f**k.  The only un-boring thing being the plethora of first-round knockouts for sitting parliamentarians (incl. Hamon).

It's like Ontario in the federal Chretien 90s all over again.  Unless one's into parsing the subtleties of the losers' numbers, it was totally yawn.  Ho-hum.  Zzzzzzz...

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LREM/MoDem: leading in 449 constituencies, will be in the runoff in 513 constituencies.
LR/UDI/DVD: leading in 67 constituencies, will be in the runoff in 300 constituencies.
FN: leading in 20 constituencies, will be in the runoff in 118 constituencies.
PS/EELV/DVG: leading in 27 constituencies, will be in the runoff in 73 constituencies.
FI/PCF: leading in 8 constituencies, will be in the runoff in 69 constituencies.

And if one considers that the happy-happy joy-joy big-tent-middleness of LREM/MD doesn't give much incentive to galvanize an *anti* vote, a big bulk of those constituencies where LREM/MD *isn't* leading is probably as good as theirs in the second round, anyway.  It's like what's left is flukes and scraps.

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Get the f**k out of this thread you dumbass.

Lol, sorry, but I really would like to see EM's success replicated elsewhere, particularly in the UK. Plus, Corbyn really could become PM soon enough, and I think it'd be a disaster.

"Flawless, beautiful" to a tyranny-of-the-centre fault.  That is, boring as f**k.  The only un-boring thing being the plethora of first-round knockouts for sitting parliamentarians (incl. Hamon).

Maybe you do, but I don't mind politics being boring at all.

The think is, Britain was led by Flawless Beautiful Centrists from 1997-2007 and from 2010-2016. In case you hadn't noticed,  on both occasions it ended in a complete disaster.

And actually (and as per the subject of this forum), if we want to get away from politics into actual *elections*, thanks to the ghost of partisanship those leaderships weren't even (not even Blair's) LREM-scale landslides.  Remember, especially, that 2010-16 was a bare minority followed by a bare majority.

Heatcharger reminds me of the sort of person who prefers to do *all* of his French, uh, travel and sightseeing by "flawless, beautiful" autoroutes and TGV; and the more of those, the better...

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Not voting is obviously profoundly dumb

That's the worst argument you could use, because it's actually not dumb at all. Every attempt at calculating of the expected utility of voting suggests that you're better off staying home. Vote because it's the right thing to do, not because it's "rational".

Windjammer's opinions on GoT are vile and despicable, but we knew already.

Y'know, when this thread descends to dreary dork discussion of Ned Stark and GoT,  all I can recommend to the lot of you is: go lose your virginity.  I'll take the reality world of elections and psephology anyday.

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PS led alliance actually made it into the second round in 88 seats.  This is a good deal more than I thought given their polling.  It seems the PS collapse is more selective and their vote held up more in their strongholds.

Unless a lot of those are dead-cat-bounce types of second, i.e. low-to-mid-teens vs REM in mid-30s...

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And always remember: LREM's ace in the hole is that, being a "centre" party, they have this "everyone's second choice" thing going.  There isn't as much incentive to vote *against* them as there is with something of a more firmly "droite" or "gauche" or, of course, "FN" identity.

So...that's where a LREM/MoDem coalition could wind up with a Liverpool Council Labour share of the seats.

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And always remember: LREM's ace in the hole is that, being a "centre" party, they have this "everyone's second choice" thing going.  There isn't as much incentive to vote *against* them as there is with something of a more firmly "droite" or "gauche" or, of course, "FN" identity.

So...that's where a LREM/MoDem coalition could wind up with a Liverpool Council Labour share of the seats.

That is indeed the strength of the centre.

"Ce que nous* avons fait pour les derniers mois n'a aucun précédent ni équivalent."
*Macron

It is unprecedented for a staunchly centrist party to have won such an overwhelming victory over the forces of extremism. The left and the right have had their turn at the helm of every major country, time after time after time. Now it is our turn! I ask the leftists and right wingers now observe what the centre can do when it has such an overwhelming majority.

As an ideally neutral observer, I like to downplay the "our".  Especially as it disregards the "centre is in the eye of the beholder" dilemma that so often trips up centrist parties--most notoriously the Clegg Dems...

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It is unprecedented for a staunchly centrist party to have won such an overwhelming victory over the forces of extremism. The left and the right have had their turn at the helm of every major country, time after time after time. Now it is our turn! I ask the leftists and right wingers now observe what the centre can do when it has such an overwhelming majority.

As an ideally neutral observer, I like to downplay the "our".  Especially as it disregards the "centre is in the eye of the beholder" dilemma that so often trips up centrist parties--most notoriously the Clegg Dems...

Not sure how you can be a "neutral observer" of politics!

It's doable (or at least reachable), if one's primary concern is with the election stats rather than with one's personal partisanship.  (And when it comes to personal partisanship, "neutrality" is a key to judging room to maneuver within a total context.)

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I'm surprised there's any genuine enthusiasm for Valls even on this forum. I'd have thought trashy amoral fat cats like jaichind would prefer to take their neoliberalism straight, rather than adulterated with the icky trappings of softcore post-social-democracy.

You don't seem to account to those like myself who strategically choose to be neutral/fly-on-the-wall bystanders and who find that this hand-wringing over Valls (in either direction) to being a boring sausagefest by the sorts of poli-sci twerps and dorks who'd rather geek out over Game of Thrones in their off-time.  (And I *do* mean sausagefest--like, figuratively speaking, I'd be like the fair lady who tells them all "you're all creeps".)

Oh, and re La Croix's maps: death to paywalls.

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Hasn't there been a French pattern (or at least, a record) of second round elections contradicting--almost by way of "correction"--the patterns implied by the first round? (I seem to recall at least one instance where the left didn't crater as expected in the second round.)

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Offhandedly, what intrigues me is that for all of FN's gains, they not only couldn't win anything in Panzergirl's strongest department, Aisne, but the strongest presidential FN constituency in Aisne actually went for the Socialists!

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Offhandedly, what intrigues me is that for all of FN's gains, they not only couldn't win anything in Panzergirl's strongest department, Aisne, but the strongest presidential FN constituency in Aisne actually went for the Socialists!

That constituency has somehow been held consistently by SFIO/PS since 1967 despite increasingly appalling Presidential results there. Think it may be their longest continually held seat now. It's a bunch of spectacularly bleak manufacturing towns, the sort of places you don't ever have to go through unless you actually live in them. But what it does show is the extent to which a lot of FN gains were basically gifted them by the Left going mad and running a thousand candidates per seat; Left candidates can beat the Fash in the properly grim parts of postindustrial Northern France, Macarons can't...

With that post, now I know what you mean about missing the good old days of participants in this board actually knowing and having a sensual "feel" for French political geography...