French Legislative Election 2017

[Zanas]

Political parties receive funding during the 5-year term on account of the number of votes they got in the latest legislative elections.

Provided they got 1% of the vote in the first round in 50 different constituencies, they get 1,42€ yearly for each vote they got in the whole country, including where they got less than 1% of the vote. Hence, when you vote for one of the relevant organizations, even if they have no chance to win, you at least provide them with 5x1,42= 7,10€.

Now, that subsidy is reduced if you don't run as many male and female candidates. Here's how it works.

You are ok if you stay inside the 51%-49% bracket in favor of either gender. Once you overcome this gap, your subisdy is reduced. Say a party runs 300 males and 277 females. The gap is 23, or 4% of the whole slate. The subsidy is reduced by 3/4 of this gap, in this case 3%. In this case, each vote will earn the party 1,42x0,97= 1,38€ yearly.

In 2012, the UMP had only ran ca. 1/4 female candidates. Their subisidy had therefore been cut by 3/4 of the 50% gap between the 75% male candidates and the 25% female candidates, so a loss of 37,5% of their financial subsidy.

There's also a totally different subisidy earned by parties who actually get candidates elected to Parliament (Assembly and Senate). This one gets them ca. 37 000€ per deputy elected (yearly, I think, but not sure, maybe for the whole term).

Are you not entertained?!

[Zanas]

It's gonna be an LR(M) absolute majority folks. Not a very wide one, but an absolute majority nonetheless. The question is will it be able to stay stable for 5 years.

[Zanas]

2020 will be a different shyt altogether. By then, the government will be massively unpopular, as they always are after 2-3 years in power, and you'll have to distance yourself from it as much as possible to keep your city.

[Zanas]

NKM in the 2nd constituency of Paris will have two contenders on the right, the mayor of the VIth arrondissement of Paris and Henri Guaino.

Not sure how she will survive in a constituency where Macron did well.

Well, there is an LRM candidate, Gilles Legendre, but afaik he's a nobody, and NKM is quite Macron-compatible, and quite a good match for this constituency. Incidentally, this is where I'm registered to vote! But I'm leaning on not voting at all for now.

2020 will be a different shyt altogether. By then, the government will be massively unpopular, as they always are after 2-3 years in power, and you'll have to distance yourself from it as much as possible to keep your city.

To be fair, didn't Sarkozy win his election after like 12 years of Chirac? (who was from his party)

Or is this something new?

No, you're missing the point. I'm only talking about the local "mid-term" elections, who have all been disasters for the party in charge nationally for the last 20 years at least.

[Zanas]

If anyone is wondering, I've decided that I'll vote for Jocelyne Le Boulicaut (EELV) on the first round, and write in a fictional character in the inevitable LREM-LR runoff.

May I suggest Tom Bombadil ?

[Zanas]

Well, the writing was on the wall, wasn't it ? How can anyone somewhat sane want to participate in this mascarade ? Of course turnout was going to be abysmal. We need PR if we want to still have a parliamentary debate in this country, otherwise we're going to sink more and more into tyranny and street resistance. I guess this election epitomizes what a Condorcet winner is...

[Zanas]

I happen to live in one of only two metropolitan constituencies where the runoff will be between PS and FI. Sadly, I also happen to vote in one of the many where it will be LREM-LR, so at least I have my day free on Sunday !

[Zanas]

I happen to live in one of only two metropolitan constituencies where the runoff will be between PS and FI. Sadly, I also happen to vote in one of the many where it will be LREM-LR, so at least I have my day free on Sunday !

Dude, I'm going to take a couple hours and pay $20-30 in car ride to get to my polling station and cast a spoiled vote in my LREM-LR matchup. Surely you can walk to yours and spend a couple minutes do the same. Don't be one of those lazy f**ks who are the reason our democracy is a joke.

Ok, so let me explain this, because I've had this debate several times, and it's absolutely not lazyness : I've stood in line for quite some time to make my proxy to vote for fukcing Emmanuel Macron in the presidential runoff ! It's a well thought position.

I think we can agree that democracy is about making choices that can be heard, and if possible implemented. When I have a choice, I vote. In my constituency, the runoff is between generic LREM candidate #7502 and fukcing NKM. From my point of view, they are literally the exact same thing. There's not a single discernible political discrepancy between them. So I cannot make a choice between those two.

Now, I can make a democratic choice between 3 options (2 really) : blank vote/null vote, abstain.

And we come back to my definition : a choice that can be heard. There is very very little talk about the blank and null votes in the election coverage in France. I was gonna say "nobody talks about them", but this is a serious debate and I won't exaggerate. There was a bit of talk about blanks and nulls in the presidential runoff. But what everybody's talking about between those 3 democratic options I have, is turnout. We compare elections between them on turnout, not on blank and nulls. The turnout figure is nearly always annexed to the results, whereas you can often struggle to find the blanks and nulls.

Moreover, to me, voting blank or null means you care about the process, but think the candidates are equally good (blank) or equally bad (null). It's my little memento, nothing more. But I happen to actually not care about the process of this flawed to the core legislative election ! So while in the first round I could still make my choice heard by voting for a candidate who support a change in this process (an FI candidate), now that she hasn't made it to the runoff, I'm left with no choice whatsoever between two identical candidates, in a process I want to be abolished as soon as possible.

So I abstain. Only thus can my choice be heard.

To be honest, with nearly every LREM candidate making it to the runoff and a large majority of them set to win their seats, what's the only real political choice that was heard and discussed in this first round ? The choice of 30% of all voters who voted in April and wouldn't consider it in June. Of course their motivation can be diverse, and of course you can say "bloody lazy fukcs". But that's what the political class has been saying for the past decades, and it hasn't helped the turnout, on the contrary...

When the turnout drops so much between elections, you can pinpoint that the people don't consider their deputies as useful anymore. They don't believe in the legislative process as it is laid out by this constitution. And when the turnout reaches a new all-time low next Sunday, perhaps as low as 40%, said deputies are gonna have a hard time saying they represent the people.

Of course, they won't have any legal difficulty, as no quorum is required, but we all know politics is only partially about legal matters. Once the people realize that the legitimacy of this system is deeply flawed, albeit legal, they might be a tad more willing to make it change later on.

[Zanas]

this is not the netherlands, imho, the left vote isn't dead, it's just diminished by tactical voters and splitting.

Really, it's just diminished by differential turnout. Left-wing voters are out there, they just don't want to participate in this farce.

[Zanas]

So I'm predicting a 45% turnout for the runoff. People just don't care.

It just occurred to me that what we continually said the last 10 years that "A GrossKoalition is absolutely impossible in France" was actually true : never would the two traditional parties of the right and the left have formed a negotiated majority. Instead they just scuttled their respective ships and merged into a big-tent wibbly-wobbly thing that is now effectively a MegaGroKo. We French sure like to do things like nobody else.

[Zanas]

LREM is just another right-wing party, don't get all drama queen.

Girardin seems to have survived in Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, but just.

[Zanas]

Both Ariège seats go FI very narrowly.

It seems that in constituencies where one candidate was perceived as a real opponent to Macron (FI, PCF, FN, some LR), people actually remobilized and voted them in. A bit reassuring, but just a bit.

[Zanas]

Apparently there are rumors (Le Monde) that Valls could be the next President of the Assembly... Ô_o

[Zanas]

Apparently there are rumors (Le Monde) that Valls could be the next President of the Assembly... Ô_o

Absurd rumors obviously.

Yeah that seems a bit too much Gorafi to my taste, even if it would be absolutely wonderful in political terms !

[Zanas]

Caroline Fiat (FI) wins Meurthe et Moselle 6 against FN. FI-Valls actually very tight for now.

Autain elected in 93-??.

[Zanas]

Philippot lost with 43%, once more Forbach didn't want him anywhere near them, kudos ! He even did a little less than the young Pfeffer in the neighboring Moselle 7 (44%).

[Zanas]

In the commune of Corbeil-Essonnes, Valls is currently around 37% (see here).

In Évry, I read that it was very narrow loss, which is not good news for Valls. Nothing on the 4 other communes of the constituency for now.

[Zanas]

God I hate Collomb. Will he ever shut up?

He's old af, he will die soon enough.

[Zanas]

Lol

LOIRET
4ÈME CIRCONSCRIPTION

M. Jean-Pierre DOOR (Élu)
LR
50,01%

Mme Mélusine HARLÉ
Rép. en marche
49,99%

Also :
Corrèze (19) - 2ème circonscription
Résultats de la circonscription au 2d tour
Liste des candidats    Nuances    Voix    % Inscrits    % Exprimés    Elu(e)
Mme Frédérique MEUNIER    LR    18 874    20,40    50,03    Oui
Mme Patricia BORDAS    REM    18 849    20,37    49,97    Non

[Zanas]

God I hate Collomb. Will he ever shut up?

He's old af, he will die soon enough.

He's only 69...

Looks way older. Well I hope he dies anyway.

[Zanas]

Lol

LOIRET
4ÈME CIRCONSCRIPTION

M. Jean-Pierre DOOR (Élu)
LR
50,01%

Mme Mélusine HARLÉ
Rép. en marche
49,99%

Also :
Corrèze (19) - 2ème circonscription
Résultats de la circonscription au 2d tour
Liste des candidats    Nuances    Voix    % Inscrits    % Exprimés    Elu(e)
Mme Frédérique MEUNIER    LR    18 874    20,40    50,03    Oui
Mme Patricia BORDAS    REM    18 849    20,37    49,97    Non

Do candidates have the chance to ask for recounts or does every candidate always simply accept the results, no matter how close they are ?

Lot of close results so far, not that it means or changes anything ...

Well, the recount process isn't the same as in Anglo-saxon countries. There are routine recounts during the counting process, if there's any discrepancy or doubt. But once the results are proclaimed by the president of the polling station, they are official.

What that leaves the losing candidates with is a legal appeal, during which the court can indeed decide to call for a recount of the votes (they are kept during the duration of the appeal deadline) if it is presented with enough evidence that some votes are of dubious legality. But if no evidence therefore is produced, the court won't automatically call for a recount even if there's only a 2-vote gap. We tend to count the votes well and globally everyone trusts that.

[Zanas]

Valls re-elected with 51.7%

Yes ...  nice.

No, that's not over yet. That's the final result for the commune of Évry, apparently. Recounts under way.

Actually, Corbeil, supposed to be Amrani's best commune of the constituency, just came out and she's got 58.5%. Not sure it will be enough, but the whole thing is awfully close.

[Zanas]

El Khomri seems to be out. :-D

[Zanas]

How ghetto is Valls' district?

Do you realize how ironic and bad it is for a Jew to ask this ?

[Zanas]

Valls claims victory with 50.3 % of the vote. Usually he's more around 49.3...