French Legislative Election 2017

[windjammer]

How is this a quota? They didn't stop anyone from running.

Of course it is.  REM has 428 positions to fill as those with a REM ticket.  Out of the 19,000 or so candidates that applied REM choose among the candidates such so that the 428 candidates picked are exactly 214 male and 214 female.  That is a quota. 

Of course any of the 19,000 candidates rejected are free to run as an independent but the application process was for the REM candidate of which can be only 428 of them.

For the record, it is the law that forces that. If there isnt an equal number of men and women, they get fined.

[windjammer]

Jaichin I can assure you that there is a law that applies as well to the legislatives. The LRs were forced to pay a fine on 2012.


Regarding the PM, that's not surprising at all

[windjammer]

All the LRs who have joined the gvt have been fired.

[windjammer]

Harris Poll (post Edouard Philippe appointment of PM)

LREM    32 (+3)
LR-UDI  19 (-1)
FN         19 (-1)
FI/PG     15 (+1)
PS-PRG    6 (-1)
EELV       3 (-)
DLF         3 (-)
PCF         2

PS-PRG-EELV together form 9% which seems to low to get to second round in a meaningful number of seats.

If this is the result in the end, En Marche is going to get 400 deputies.

[windjammer]

Harris Poll (post Edouard Philippe appointment of PM)

LREM    32 (+3)
LR-UDI  19 (-1)
FN         19 (-1)
FI/PG     15 (+1)
PS-PRG    6 (-1)
EELV       3 (-)
DLF         3 (-)
PCF         2

PS-PRG-EELV together form 9% which seems to low to get to second round in a meaningful number of seats.

If this is the result in the end, En Marche is going to get 400 deputies.

According to this website, that would mean 427 deputies for LREM / MoDem. Of course it's just a national projection, every constituency has a different local context.

Well, when a party leads by more than 10 points, it means a landslide a la 2002 or even better 1993. The only problem with EM I believe is that their results are probably relatively homogeneous everywhere while for example the FN/LR have some bastions, the same problem that had the Libdems in 2010.

I have no doubts a so big lead would end up with something like 400 deputies or more

[windjammer]

Ugh Mélenchon needs to f**k off. What a piece of sh*t. I'd honestly vote for the LREM guy over him in that constituency if that's the choice.

Really? Given that Macron's cabinet makes it look like he intends to govern as a more socially liberal version of LR, I would have thought it was crucial to put as many left-wingers in parliament as remotely possible.

The French left will never be able to rebuild as long as Mélenchon has any influence within it, because all Mélenchon wants is to destroy any left-wing force that isn't his own personality cult. He doesn't care about actually changing people's lives. He's happy to stay in the opposition forever, as long as it gives him the role of a hero. He's a self-serving megalomaniac clown and the left-wing opposition to FBM deserves better.

To be honest, all current leftwing parties must be destroyed as they are led by incompetent morons, the Hollande presidency proving this point. So if he could destroy, that would be a good thing.

[windjammer]

OpinionWay

LREM: 28% (+1 since last week)
LR: 20% (=)
FN: 19% (-1)
FI: 15% (+1)
PS: 10% (-1)

Seats (based on the 535 seats in metropolitan France)
LREM: 310-330 (+30)
LR: 140-160 (-10)
PS: 25-30 (-15)
FI: 25-30 (+5)
FN: 10-15 (=)

I think that is going to be the result in the end.

[windjammer]

Constituencies polls by Ifop

Eure, 1st
Le Maire (economy minister, former LR, now LREM): 48%
Delacour (FN): 20%
Desprès (FI): 16%
Dioukhané (LR): 7%

Second round
Le Maire: 76%
Delacour: 24%

Essonne, 1st
Valls (DVG): 30%
Amrani (FI): 26%
Oger (FN): 12%
Varin (LR): 12%

Second round
Valls: 50%
Amrani: 50%

It would be hilarious if Valls loses to someone from FI

[windjammer]

Anyone thinks Ferrandgate could seriously hurt LREM? It hasn't yet, but it seems to be slowly building up like Penelopegate did back in February.

Honestly? No.

[windjammer]

Constituencies polls by Ifop (be prepared for a LREM tsunami)

Paris, 2nd
Le Gendre (LREM) : 42%
NKM (LR) : 24%
Lecoq (DVD) : 7.5%
Prunières (FI) : 7%
Guaino (DVD) : 3%

Second round
Le Gendre 68%, NKM 32%

Gard, 2nd
Collard (FN) : 32%
Sara (LREM) : 31%
Mourrut (LR) : 17.5%
Floutier (FI) : 14%

Second round
Two-way race : Sara 56%, Collard 44%
Three-way race : Sara 41%, Collard 37%, Mourrut 22%

But I thought NKM's seat was heavily LRs?

[windjammer]

Let's analyze FN's best pick up opportunities. It's not really difficult to find them as they have been almost located in Nord Pas de Calais(LOL). Here are the legislative seats where I believe they could win:


Nord Pas de Calais: I assume that the FI and PC voters, while obviously not voting for FN massively, they will vote more for them than in the other parts of France.

Pas de Calais:
3rd circonscription:         Windjammer prognostic for the run off: POTENTIAL FN PICK UP
M. José EVRARD (b)

FN

31,69%

M. Patrick DEBRUYNE (b)

Modem

16,99%

M. Jean-Marc TELLIER

PC

16,39%

M. Djordje KUZMANOVIC

France insoumise

11,29%

Mme Frédérique MASSON

PS

8,96%

Mme Sabine BANACH-FINEZ

LR

4,74%

M. Jamel OUFQIR





10th circonscription:            Windjammer prognostic for the run off: LEAN EN MARCHE


M. Ludovic PAJOT (b)

FN

31,30%

Mme Laurence DESCHANEL (b)

Rép. en marche

20,52%

M. Bernard CAILLIAU

PS

17,93%

M. Gauthier JANKOWSKI

France insoumise

12,82%

M. Nesrédine RAMDANI

LR

5,27%

M. Ludovic GUYOT

PC 4.97


11th circonscription:              Windjammer prognostic for the run off: LIKELY FN PICK UP
Mme Marine LE PEN (b)

FN

46,02%

Mme Anne ROQUET (b)

Rép. en marche

16,43%

M. Philippe KEMEL

PS

10,83%

M. Jean-Pierre CARPENTIER

France insoumise

9,97%

M. Hervé POLY

PC

5,00%

Mme Alexandrine PINTUS

LR

4,18%

Mme Marine TONDELIER

Ecologiste



12th circonscription:               Windjammer prognostic for the run off: POTENTIAL FN PICK UP

M. Bruno BILDE (b)

FN

35,53%

Mme Coralie REMBERT (b)

Rép. en marche

20,84%

M. Laurent DUPORGE

PS

16,05%

M. Grégory FRACKOWIAK

France insoumise

12,04%

Mme Caroline MELONI

LR

4,19%

M. Christian CHAMPIRE

PC

4,17%



----------------------
Nord

19th circonscription:           Windjammer prognostic for the run off: POTENTIAL FN PICK UP
M. Sébastien CHENU (b)

FN

33,21%

Mme Sabine HEBBAR (b)

Modem

18,08%

Mme Anne-Lise DUFOUR-TONINI

PS

14,08%

M. Julien POIX

France insoumise

12,83%

M. Pascal JEAN

PC

9,76%

M. Olivier CAPRON

LR

6,94%





HERAULT

6th circonscription:      Windjammer prognoctic: LEAN EN MARCHE

Mme Emmanuelle MÉNARD

FN

35,41%

Mme Isabelle VOYER

Rép. en marche

24,72%

M. Elie ABOUD

LR

18,28%

M. David GARCIA

France insoumise

9,90%

M. Antonio FULLEDA

PS

4,70%

M. Nicolas COSSANGE

PC

3,24%






And that's all lol (maybe I forgot some but not many). The results for the cities haven't been reported yet, so except maybe Marseilles, they won't win any seats in the big cities.

[windjammer]

I happen to live in one of only two metropolitan constituencies where the runoff will be between PS and FI. Sadly, I also happen to vote in one of the many where it will be LREM-LR, so at least I have my day free on Sunday !

Dude, I'm going to take a couple hours and pay $20-30 in car ride to get to my polling station and cast a spoiled vote in my LREM-LR matchup. Surely you can walk to yours and spend a couple minutes do the same. Don't be one of those lazy f**ks who are the reason our democracy is a joke.

I mean, the democratic system has become a total joke where a marketing product with no political idea can be elected president and have 75% of the legislative seats, where literally 40% of the population voted for someone who was facing big corruption scandals. So honestly, I understand why people don't bother to vote,  french politics are a massive joke.


(I'm of course vote but I understand why people aren't interested in losing their free time)

[windjammer]

I happen to live in one of only two metropolitan constituencies where the runoff will be between PS and FI. Sadly, I also happen to vote in one of the many where it will be LREM-LR, so at least I have my day free on Sunday !

Dude, I'm going to take a couple hours and pay $20-30 in car ride to get to my polling station and cast a spoiled vote in my LREM-LR matchup. Surely you can walk to yours and spend a couple minutes do the same. Don't be one of those lazy f**ks who are the reason our democracy is a joke.

I mean, the democratic system has become a total joke where a marketing product with no political idea can be elected president and have 75% of the legislative seats, where literally 40% of the population voted for someone who was facing big corruption scandals. So honestly, I understand why people don't bother to vote,  french politics are a massive joke.

It's a matter of principle. Democracy only works if most people willing to sacrifice a little something to participate in it. The cost of voting in France (at least in mainland France) is so minimal that there's no valid excuse not to make this sacrifice. If people can't even be bothered to do that, then what they're saying is that they might as well live in a dictatorship.

Principles are bullsh**t,

And we indeed live in a dictatorship of the medias that managed to sell this marketing product.

[windjammer]

Principles are bullsh**t,

Principles are the only thing that truly matters.

The decapitated head of Ned Stark sends its regard

[windjammer]

Principles are bullsh**t,

Principles are the only thing that truly matters.

The decapitated head of Ned Stark sends its regard

Ned Stark is great. Thanks for proving my point.

Ned Stark is a huge moron who was more concentrated on his ing principles than being pragmatic. He wanted to kill Jaime Lannister for having killed Aerys while he literally saved hundred thousand of men. It was so much honourable to serve his king no matter he does when he said nothing when well known rapist Robert Baratheon was beating his wife in front of him.

A such great character whose stupidty and honour led to the demise of his house, to his death, to the death of his wife and his brother and to the rape of his daughter.

Nice guy FF

[windjammer]

A first runoff with one candidate, in the Aveyron 2nd the LR candidate drops out. The LREM candidate is the only one to stand Sunday.

"We have to do a lucid analysis, the constituency is historically left. In addition, it is impossible to close the gap. We must listen to the popular will and withdraw "

(results in the first round: LREM 38,72%, LR 20,18%)

Is there some sort of scandal related to this LR candidate.  Why drop out now ?  39 vs 20 is not that insurmountable ?

It is insurmontable

[windjammer]

OpinionWay projects LREM at 440-70 seats. Surf's up.

More details:
EM and alies: 440-470
LR and allies: 70-90
PS and allies: 20-30
FI/PCF: 5-15
FN: 1-5


That seems globally accurate.

[windjammer]

My prediction, based on the results of the first round

LREM/MoDem: 453 (LREM 397, MoDem 56)
Right: 76 (LR 61, UDI 11, DVD 4)
Left: 26 (PS 12, PRG 2, EELV 1, DVG 11)
Radical Left: 12 (FI 6, PCF 6)
Far-right: 3 (FN 2, Ligue du Sud 1)
Others: 7

Who is the second FN to be elected? Bruno Bilde?

[windjammer]

No, Hérault 6th with Ménard. But I think that Hérault 6th and Pas-de-Calais 12th with Bilde are undecided. Just maybe FN has a better chance with Ménard with the local implantation of her husband and maybe some good transfers of votes from LR to FN.

I mean, I believe that Macron won Menard's circonscription, he didn't for those in Pas de calais

[windjammer]

Well we'll see but honestly I still believe that Bruno Bilde is the likeliest 2nd FN deputy.


I rate the chances of FN having only 1 deputy at 35%, possible but they should win in other places

[windjammer]

Well,
The run off is going to be close!

[windjammer]

Personally I support PS/FI coalitions. Macron is a great danger to social cohesion and must be stopped.