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| | |-+  Putin proposes Syrian "safe zones", guaranteed by Russia, Turkey, Iran, to Trump
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Author Topic: Putin proposes Syrian "safe zones", guaranteed by Russia, Turkey, Iran, to Trump  (Read 308 times)
ApatheticAustrian
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« on: May 03, 2017, 03:26:33 pm »
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Syria war: Putin says 'safe zones' have international support
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39797904
Quote
Russia, the US, Turkey, Iran and Syria are close to agreeing the establishment of "safe zones" in Syria aimed at ensuring the viability of a ceasefire, Vladimir Putin says.

The Russian president said they would amount to no-fly zones.

Mr Putin said his US counterpart Donald Trump had told him in a phone call on Tuesday that he supported the idea.
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True Federalist
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« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2017, 09:46:41 pm »
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Mr Putin said aircraft "would not work" in the de-escalation zones "provided there is no military activity in these zones".

Translation:  "We'll be free to bomb them whenever we want by claiming military activity is happening there."
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palandio
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« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2017, 03:59:10 am »
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A widespread impression is that the non-IS rebels are weakened and divided. An example is the East Ghouta (one of the four would-be de-escalation zones), where infighting between the Islam Army on one side and the Rahman Legion and al-Qaeda on the other side over the past year has enabled the regime forces to re-capture over half of the territory.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rif_Dimashq_offensive_(April%E2%80%93May_2016)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Ghouta_inter-rebel_conflict_(April%E2%80%93May_2016)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rif_Dimashq_offensive_(June%E2%80%93October_2016)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qaboun_offensive_(February%E2%80%93April_2017)#Rebel_split_and_infighting

The key idea seems to be to let the rebels sort it out among themselves while watching them from outside, some kind of large-scale hunger games.
Then in some regions the uncompromising rebels will prevail, those who still wouldn't accept anything else than total victory despite never having controlled more than 12% of Syria. They will be heavily tainted by their al-Qaeda affiliation and therefore an easy target (or at so hopes Russia).
And in other regions forces might prevail who hope to survive an international deal by for example transforming themselves into a Salafi islamist political party in a post-war order. Some suspect the (Saudi-backed, not at all moderate) Islam Army to be among these.
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palandio
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« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2017, 10:42:24 am »
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There is some escalation going on in the southern/south-eastern Syrian desert which is not included in any of the 4 de-escalation zones.

During the last 4-5 months US-backed rebel groups coming out of Jordan have conquered large swaths in the almost empty Syrian desert from ISIS, including the al-Tanf border crossing between Syria and Iraq and reaching the outskirts of Deir ez-Zor province:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Southern_Syrian_Desert_campaign

But now the Syrian Army and allied Iranian/Iraqi proxies have launched an offensive towards the al-Tanf border crossing, against the US-backed rebels. trying get control over the entire Damascus-Baghdad road:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Baghdad%E2%80%93Damascus_highway_offensive

This has the potential to grow into something bigger, with the US trying to connect Jordan to Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan via Deir ez-Zor province and Syria and Iran trying to reestablish the Damascus-Baghdad road, probably with Russian backing.
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