Is Ohio still a swing state?
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  Is Ohio still a swing state?
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Da2017
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« on: May 04, 2017, 12:25:51 AM »

Considering Trump,s victory. Normally ohio leans 2 to 3 points repubican than the country.
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« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2017, 12:29:47 AM »

If Delaware and Oregon are, then sure (just look at 2016, adjusted for an even popular vote).
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2017, 08:49:41 AM »

Yes, it's still a swing state. One election is no indictor for a long-term trend. It has to be 2-3 elections in a row with larger margins for one party (like NM after 2004).
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2017, 12:23:31 PM »

Yes, of course it's still a swing state, is it the bell weather it once was? That's a different question. But definitely still a swing state
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2017, 03:17:37 PM »

It's not as much of a swing state anymore, and the 2018 midterms will show if that trend continues.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2017, 07:22:17 PM »

I view Ohio's results as a bit of an aberration, but it is trending Republican somewhat.
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« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2017, 07:28:11 PM »

If Trump is actually still above water there are this point, probably not really.  I do fear that there is a "West Virginia-ization" taking place primarily in Ohio because its population is declining, towns and cities are going to hell with the rest of the Rust Belt, youngs are moving out, and Democratic registration is down.  I hope I'm wrong.
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TML
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« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2017, 10:30:24 PM »

I suspect that Ohio is probably going the way of Missouri in terms of being a bellwether/swing state.

Remember that in 2016, the final pre-election polls indicated that Trump was expected to win Ohio, but only by about 2-4%. If that had been his actual winning percentage in Ohio, then he would almost certainly have lost Michigan & Pennsylvania. Also, in 2008, Obama lost Missouri by just a fraction of a percent, which would suggest that if had he lost the general election, he would probably have lost that state by 10% or more.

Thus, I would expect Ohio to be a swing state if the Democratic nominee were on track to win 320+ electoral votes.
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Spark
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« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2017, 03:38:24 PM »

Short term no, long term yes.
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mgop
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« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2017, 04:05:15 PM »

of course it is a swing state. you can't win election without ohio.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #10 on: May 05, 2017, 04:44:36 PM »

Depends, if an Obamacare repeal passes as it stands how it will shoot back in the other direction as all those blue collar voters get hosed hard.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2017, 04:48:27 PM »

It wasn't really considered one in 2000; the relative narrowness of Bush's winning margin was probably down to the drunk driving story. Those voters who were turned off by it came back to him in 2004 and probably secured the state (and therefore re-election) for him.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2017, 04:51:20 PM »

of course it is a swing state. you can't win election without ohio.

JFK, FDR Part IV say hello.

Nevada has been just as reliable in the same 104 years span, and when it was wrong, it was wrong by far less.


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« Reply #13 on: May 05, 2017, 04:55:15 PM »

of course it is a swing state. you can't win election without ohio.

Taking demographics into account, Ohio is a very important state for Republicans.  Democrats have paths to victory without it, but if Ohio votes Democrat, then a Democratic victory is almost guaranteed.
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JA
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« Reply #14 on: May 05, 2017, 05:01:58 PM »

That depends on the actions of the Democratic Party. Ohio voters are not partisan Republicans or even necessarily inclined to Republican policies - especially economic ones. The question is whether Democrats are willing to embrace an economic message that appeals to the concerns of financially stressed Ohio voters. They will not win the Cincinnati, Columbus, and Dayton suburbs, nor the Ohio countryside, but they can reclaim voters in northern and eastern Ohio that failed to turn out for Clinton or switched to Trump. Youngstown, Canton, Akron, Cleveland, Toledo, Sandusky, and Steubenville and their surrounding areas should be easy targets for Democrats.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2017, 05:04:44 PM »

Depends, if an Obamacare repeal passes as it stands how it will shoot back in the other direction as all those blue collar voters get hosed hard.

Republicans have won tons of races in OH without all of these "blue collar voters."
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JA
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« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2017, 05:12:40 PM »

That depends on the actions of the Democratic Party. Ohio voters are not partisan Republicans or even necessarily inclined to Republican policies - especially economic ones. The question is whether Democrats are willing to embrace an economic message that appeals to the concerns of financially stressed Ohio voters. They will not win the Cincinnati, Columbus, and Dayton suburbs, nor the Ohio countryside, but they can reclaim voters in northern and eastern Ohio that failed to turn out for Clinton or switched to Trump. Youngstown, Canton, Akron, Cleveland, Toledo, Sandusky, and Steubenville and their surrounding areas should be easy targets for Democrats.

It's very late for that, if not too late. The white people in these areas have developed a tribalistic attachment to Trump. He is "one of us". The smug, professional white collar class in the coasts are the enemy. Merely offering slightly better policies is going to struggle to detach them from that identity.

Anytime I see claims of White people voting for Trump en masse because of racism/xenophobia/etc... I automatically tune out. Those are excuses employed by an establishment unwilling to address their fundamental economic failures. If you claim Joe Ohio Voter is a Trump voter simply because he is a bigot, you erase any need to reorient your economic agenda because that does not matter, he will supposedly vote against you anyway.

These places voted for Obama in 2008 and many of them for him in 2012 as well. This does not mean they are not bigots, but it does indicate they are willing to put bigotry aside for economic self-preservation. Obviously, Clinton and the Democrats under Obama did not offer that to them. So, they defected to an "outsider" that employed populist rhetoric to mask his elitist agenda.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #17 on: May 05, 2017, 05:18:01 PM »

It could be a tilt R state, but it's certainly not out of reach for Democrats.  Still, it's far more likely that Democrats will win without Ohio than vice versa (and that is the case historically too).
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Figueira
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« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2017, 08:08:39 PM »

As I've said before, any state that voted for two different parties in the last two elections is by definition a swing state, until we get close to 2020 and polling shows otherwise.
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jojoju1998
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« Reply #19 on: May 06, 2017, 10:21:55 AM »

That depends on the actions of the Democratic Party. Ohio voters are not partisan Republicans or even necessarily inclined to Republican policies - especially economic ones. The question is whether Democrats are willing to embrace an economic message that appeals to the concerns of financially stressed Ohio voters. They will not win the Cincinnati, Columbus, and Dayton suburbs, nor the Ohio countryside, but they can reclaim voters in northern and eastern Ohio that failed to turn out for Clinton or switched to Trump. Youngstown, Canton, Akron, Cleveland, Toledo, Sandusky, and Steubenville and their surrounding areas should be easy targets for Democrats.

It's very late for that, if not too late. The white people in these areas have developed a tribalistic attachment to Trump. He is "one of us". The smug, professional white collar class in the coasts are the enemy. Merely offering slightly better policies is going to struggle to detach them from that identity.

Anytime I see claims of White people voting for Trump en masse because of racism/xenophobia/etc... I automatically tune out. Those are excuses employed by an establishment unwilling to address their fundamental economic failures. If you claim Joe Ohio Voter is a Trump voter simply because he is a bigot, you erase any need to reorient your economic agenda because that does not matter, he will supposedly vote against you anyway.

These places voted for Obama in 2008 and many of them for him in 2012 as well. This does not mean they are not bigots, but it does indicate they are willing to put bigotry aside for economic self-preservation. Obviously, Clinton and the Democrats under Obama did not offer that to them. So, they defected to an "outsider" that employed populist rhetoric to mask his elitist agenda.

Which is why I believe that the Next Democratic Majority will include both Working Class Whites and Working Class People of Color. And the Next Democratic Majority President will be a Governor from the Rust Belt aka Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan.
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Beet
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« Reply #20 on: May 06, 2017, 11:36:13 AM »

That depends on the actions of the Democratic Party. Ohio voters are not partisan Republicans or even necessarily inclined to Republican policies - especially economic ones. The question is whether Democrats are willing to embrace an economic message that appeals to the concerns of financially stressed Ohio voters. They will not win the Cincinnati, Columbus, and Dayton suburbs, nor the Ohio countryside, but they can reclaim voters in northern and eastern Ohio that failed to turn out for Clinton or switched to Trump. Youngstown, Canton, Akron, Cleveland, Toledo, Sandusky, and Steubenville and their surrounding areas should be easy targets for Democrats.

It's very late for that, if not too late. The white people in these areas have developed a tribalistic attachment to Trump. He is "one of us". The smug, professional white collar class in the coasts are the enemy. Merely offering slightly better policies is going to struggle to detach them from that identity.

Anytime I see claims of White people voting for Trump en masse because of racism/xenophobia/etc... I automatically tune out. Those are excuses employed by an establishment unwilling to address their fundamental economic failures. If you claim Joe Ohio Voter is a Trump voter simply because he is a bigot, you erase any need to reorient your economic agenda because that does not matter, he will supposedly vote against you anyway.

These places voted for Obama in 2008 and many of them for him in 2012 as well. This does not mean they are not bigots, but it does indicate they are willing to put bigotry aside for economic self-preservation. Obviously, Clinton and the Democrats under Obama did not offer that to them. So, they defected to an "outsider" that employed populist rhetoric to mask his elitist agenda.

Brah, if these people thought Trump had an elitist agenda, they wouldn't have voted for him. They don't think like you do. If you went to these places, you'd be wringing your hands and begging them, "But-but-but he's against your interests! Can't you see now?" The problem is you see everything through a far left lens.

What you don't get is that these voters love Trump. It's not like their support (to the extent they did) of Obama at all. That was limp. That was, "it's either him or Romney, who I really hate, so meh, sure I guess." Trump's different. This is them painting their entire houses for Trump. This them ordering 5,000 yard signs for him. This is house after house with not a regular yard sign, but a huge, almost billboard-size sign for him. You drive down these places and it's every single house. This is them driving down Kentucky as a military convoy with a huge Trump sign in front. This is them rigging up a crane with a Trump sign so every driver by on a bridge across the Schuylkill river can see it. He's not just their rock star, he's one of them. Jesus Christ himself could come down from the heavens and many of them still would not be pried away. Mark my words.
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JA
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« Reply #21 on: May 06, 2017, 11:50:17 AM »

That depends on the actions of the Democratic Party. Ohio voters are not partisan Republicans or even necessarily inclined to Republican policies - especially economic ones. The question is whether Democrats are willing to embrace an economic message that appeals to the concerns of financially stressed Ohio voters. They will not win the Cincinnati, Columbus, and Dayton suburbs, nor the Ohio countryside, but they can reclaim voters in northern and eastern Ohio that failed to turn out for Clinton or switched to Trump. Youngstown, Canton, Akron, Cleveland, Toledo, Sandusky, and Steubenville and their surrounding areas should be easy targets for Democrats.

It's very late for that, if not too late. The white people in these areas have developed a tribalistic attachment to Trump. He is "one of us". The smug, professional white collar class in the coasts are the enemy. Merely offering slightly better policies is going to struggle to detach them from that identity.

Anytime I see claims of White people voting for Trump en masse because of racism/xenophobia/etc... I automatically tune out. Those are excuses employed by an establishment unwilling to address their fundamental economic failures. If you claim Joe Ohio Voter is a Trump voter simply because he is a bigot, you erase any need to reorient your economic agenda because that does not matter, he will supposedly vote against you anyway.

These places voted for Obama in 2008 and many of them for him in 2012 as well. This does not mean they are not bigots, but it does indicate they are willing to put bigotry aside for economic self-preservation. Obviously, Clinton and the Democrats under Obama did not offer that to them. So, they defected to an "outsider" that employed populist rhetoric to mask his elitist agenda.

Brah, if these people thought Trump had an elitist agenda, they wouldn't have voted for him. They don't think like you do. If you went to these places, you'd be wringing your hands and begging them, "But-but-but he's against your interests! Can't you see now?" The problem is you see everything through a far left lens.

What you don't get is that these voters love Trump. It's not like their support (to the extent they did) of Obama at all. That was limp. That was, "it's either him or Romney, who I really hate, so meh, sure I guess." Trump's different. This is them painting their entire houses for Trump. This them ordering 5,000 yard signs for him. This is house after house with not a regular yard sign, but a huge, almost billboard-size sign for him. You drive down these places and it's every single house. This is them driving down Kentucky as a military convoy with a huge Trump sign in front. This is them rigging up a crane with a Trump sign so every driver by on a bridge across the Schuylkill river can see it. He's not just their rock star, he's one of them. Jesus Christ himself could come down from the heavens and many of them still would not be pried away. Mark my words.

No doubt those people exist in the millions. In fact, my father was one of them. Yard signs, a flag, stickers on his car, a plate on his car, a shrine in the house, Trump hats and pins galore. I know all about it. However, he was also a Republican partisan, an avid watcher of FOX News, and daily listener of Rush, Herman Cain, and Hannity. The people who were that dedicated to Trump were not Democrats or former Obama voters; they were people who were already consistently voting Republican. For them, yes, he is "one of them" and they adore his policies of "build that wall," targeting Muslims, and scapegoating minorities.

The problem is that I was not referring to those voters. I was referring to the people disappointed with Obama's policies and economy, disliked Clinton and/or the current Democratic Party, and voted for Trump instead.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #22 on: May 06, 2017, 11:50:55 AM »

Ohio had consistently been slightly more conservative than the rest of the country.

2016 is a bit of an abberation, as it went for Trump by higher margins than Arizona and Georgia, and with a higher percentage than Alaska. We'll have to see in future elections if this is a one-off, or a permanent change.

Keep in mind the consensus an year ago was that Pennsylvania and Michigan weren't swing states because Republicans had no shot there.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #23 on: May 06, 2017, 11:53:53 AM »

That depends on the actions of the Democratic Party. Ohio voters are not partisan Republicans or even necessarily inclined to Republican policies - especially economic ones. The question is whether Democrats are willing to embrace an economic message that appeals to the concerns of financially stressed Ohio voters. They will not win the Cincinnati, Columbus, and Dayton suburbs, nor the Ohio countryside, but they can reclaim voters in northern and eastern Ohio that failed to turn out for Clinton or switched to Trump. Youngstown, Canton, Akron, Cleveland, Toledo, Sandusky, and Steubenville and their surrounding areas should be easy targets for Democrats.

It's very late for that, if not too late. The white people in these areas have developed a tribalistic attachment to Trump. He is "one of us". The smug, professional white collar class in the coasts are the enemy. Merely offering slightly better policies is going to struggle to detach them from that identity.

Anytime I see claims of White people voting for Trump en masse because of racism/xenophobia/etc... I automatically tune out. Those are excuses employed by an establishment unwilling to address their fundamental economic failures. If you claim Joe Ohio Voter is a Trump voter simply because he is a bigot, you erase any need to reorient your economic agenda because that does not matter, he will supposedly vote against you anyway.

These places voted for Obama in 2008 and many of them for him in 2012 as well. This does not mean they are not bigots, but it does indicate they are willing to put bigotry aside for economic self-preservation. Obviously, Clinton and the Democrats under Obama did not offer that to them. So, they defected to an "outsider" that employed populist rhetoric to mask his elitist agenda.

Brah, if these people thought Trump had an elitist agenda, they wouldn't have voted for him. They don't think like you do. If you went to these places, you'd be wringing your hands and begging them, "But-but-but he's against your interests! Can't you see now?" The problem is you see everything through a far left lens.

What you don't get is that these voters love Trump. It's not like their support (to the extent they did) of Obama at all. That was limp. That was, "it's either him or Romney, who I really hate, so meh, sure I guess." Trump's different. This is them painting their entire houses for Trump. This them ordering 5,000 yard signs for him. This is house after house with not a regular yard sign, but a huge, almost billboard-size sign for him. You drive down these places and it's every single house. This is them driving down Kentucky as a military convoy with a huge Trump sign in front. This is them rigging up a crane with a Trump sign so every driver by on a bridge across the Schuylkill river can see it. He's not just their rock star, he's one of them. Jesus Christ himself could come down from the heavens and many of them still would not be pried away. Mark my words.

No doubt those people exist in the millions. In fact, my father was one of them. Yard signs, a flag, stickers on his car, a plate on his car, a shrine in the house, Trump hats and pins galore. I know all about it. However, he was also a Republican partisan, an avid watcher of FOX News, and daily listener of Rush, Herman Cain, and Hannity. The people who were that dedicated to Trump were not Democrats or former Obama voters; they were people who were already consistently voting Republican. For them, yes, he is "one of them" and they adore his policies of "build that wall," targeting Muslims, and scapegoating minorities.

The problem is that I was not referring to those voters. I was referring to the people disappointed with Obama's policies and economy, disliked Clinton and/or the current Democratic Party, and voted for Trump instead.

This is why I couldn't imagine Trump losing. I followed the polls (somewhat) and had Hillary winning 278-260, but my gut kept telling me "How the hell can he not be winning this election?"

Should have predicted my gut. But to a much lesser extent, Romney had lots of white voter excitement in October 2012 and that meant nothing. I think without Romney's surge in Oct 2012, many more would have predicted a Trump victory since he had the momentum.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #24 on: May 06, 2017, 12:43:39 PM »

That depends on the actions of the Democratic Party. Ohio voters are not partisan Republicans or even necessarily inclined to Republican policies - especially economic ones. The question is whether Democrats are willing to embrace an economic message that appeals to the concerns of financially stressed Ohio voters. They will not win the Cincinnati, Columbus, and Dayton suburbs, nor the Ohio countryside, but they can reclaim voters in northern and eastern Ohio that failed to turn out for Clinton or switched to Trump. Youngstown, Canton, Akron, Cleveland, Toledo, Sandusky, and Steubenville and their surrounding areas should be easy targets for Democrats.

It's very late for that, if not too late. The white people in these areas have developed a tribalistic attachment to Trump. He is "one of us". The smug, professional white collar class in the coasts are the enemy. Merely offering slightly better policies is going to struggle to detach them from that identity.

Anytime I see claims of White people voting for Trump en masse because of racism/xenophobia/etc... I automatically tune out. Those are excuses employed by an establishment unwilling to address their fundamental economic failures. If you claim Joe Ohio Voter is a Trump voter simply because he is a bigot, you erase any need to reorient your economic agenda because that does not matter, he will supposedly vote against you anyway.

These places voted for Obama in 2008 and many of them for him in 2012 as well. This does not mean they are not bigots, but it does indicate they are willing to put bigotry aside for economic self-preservation. Obviously, Clinton and the Democrats under Obama did not offer that to them. So, they defected to an "outsider" that employed populist rhetoric to mask his elitist agenda.

Which is why I believe that the Next Democratic Majority will include both Working Class Whites and Working Class People of Color. And the Next Democratic Majority President will be a Governor from the Rust Belt aka Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan.

Just watch for a poll. I saw a poll in which Donald Trump had an approval rating of 42% in Iowa, a state that voted much like Ohio in 2016. 10% shifts in voting apply to some elections. A state can turn on someone for whom it voted in one election -- think of Carter in 1980 after winning every former Confederate state except Virginia in 1976. I see evidence that his claim to be a Man of the People as a populist will be as effective in 2020 as Jimmy Carter's 'good ol' boy' image compatible with some 'New South' was effective for him in 1980. Carter lost every former Confederate state in 1980 except for his home state Georgia. Sharing the vulgar tastes of blue-collar midwestern white voters will be irrelevant if he hurts those voters.

Yes, I have a poll of Ohio as I interpret the results (it does not quite say 'approval', but it sounds much like it), and that poll does not look good for the President.

Trump can lose while winning Ohio; if the Democrat wins all states that Clinton won in 2016 and flips either Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (his barest wins); Florida and one of his barest wins of 2016 or one of Arizona and North Carolina; two of his barest wins of  2016 and either Arizona or North Carolina)...

He can lose an election because he loses Ohio; I can't see President Trump winning the Electoral College while losing Ohio because he will lose Michigan and Pennsylvania before he loses Ohio and one of at least five other states (Arizona, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, and Wisconsin) before losing Ohio. If Gauleiter Walker loses a re-election bid in Wisconsin, then the Democratic Governor of Wisconsin will certainly do nothing to help Trump win Wisconsin again.

The only help that Donald Trump can get from his Profits First medical system could be that Americans will leave America because of the world's most expensive, but mediocre, medical system. If I had to leave America to go somewhere in which medical costs are less severe just so that I could survive -- then I would. Why die for some economic shibboleth?

It will be easy to mock the slogan "Make America Great Again" -- maybe "Make Americans Suffer Greatly"? -- if things go badly wrong. 

...So Ohio was vulnerable to Trump's demagoguery. Maybe it won;t be in 2020.
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