Delaware and Oregon voted closer to the national average than Ohio or Iowa

[100% pro-life no matter what]

National PV: Clinton +2.09
Oregon: Clinton +10.98 (8.87 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole)
Delaware: Clinton +11.38 (9.27 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole)
Ohio: Trump +8.08 (10.2 points more Republican than the nation as a whole)
Iowa: Trump +9.41 (11.5 points more Republican than the nation as a whole)

By the way, Virginia was also closer to the nation as a whole than Florida, Colorado closer than Wisconsin, and New Mexico closer than Georgia.

Oh, and, if you want to call Indiana competitive because of 2008 or whatever, New York was closer to the nation as a whole than Indiana!

If Ohio and Iowa are still swing states, than I guess Oregon and Delaware count too (and arguably even Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island).

[Green Line]

Trump lost the popular vote.

[Xing]

Your point is...?

If you're arguing that this makes Oregon and Delaware more competitive than Iowa and Ohio, your point about Indiana in 2008 defeats your argument. You can't make conclusions based on one election alone. Iowa and Ohio swung heavily Republican in 2016, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they're permanent dark red states, or only going to get more Republican. Oregon and Delaware have shown no signs of becoming competitive, in fact Oregon has become significantly less competitive since the early 2000s.

[Mr. Smith]

Nevada's the reliable one now.

[Figueira]

Delaware and Oregon don't have a recent history of being swing states, whereas Ohio and Iowa do. I would argue that it's possible that Delaware and/or Oregon vote Republican in 2020, but very, very unlikely.

[NOVA Green]

Delaware and Oregon don't have a recent history of being swing states, whereas Ohio and Iowa do. I would argue that it's possible that Delaware and/or Oregon vote Republican in 2020, but very, very unlikely.

I could see Kasich potentially doing quite well in Oregon, but not winning the State, against a Democratic candidate.

Reason being, is in or for a Republican to win statewide, they not only need to max out their votes in rural areas (Check Trump '16), perform exceptionally well in Mill towns (Still potential gains there vs '16 I supposed hypothetically), but most importantly be competitive in the Portland suburbs of Washington County, upper income areas of West Portland, Inner Portland wealthier suburbs like Lake Oswego, etc. and win by quite solid margins in Upper Middle-Class precincts in Salem, Eugene, Corvalis...

The only way I see that scenario happening is someone like Kasich, would be able to harness the traditional latent "Moderate Republican gene" that exists in much of Oregon, but it's still a major strain on my brain trying to figure out even in that scenario how a Republican could modify the margins enough in just the right places to take the ball over the finish line.

I'll let others speak to Delaware, since I haven't been there in 15 years, but yes your point about Iowa and Ohio having a immediately recent history of swing states was the correct answer....

[Smash255]

National PV: Clinton +2.09
Oregon: Clinton +10.98 (8.87 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole)
Delaware: Clinton +11.38 (9.27 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole)
Ohio: Trump +8.08 (10.2 points more Republican than the nation as a whole)
Iowa: Trump +9.41 (11.5 points more Republican than the nation as a whole)

By the way, Virginia was also closer to the nation as a whole than Florida, Colorado closer than Wisconsin, and New Mexico closer than Georgia.

Oh, and, if you want to call Indiana competitive because of 2008 or whatever, New York was closer to the nation as a whole than Indiana!

If Ohio and Iowa are still swing states, than I guess Oregon and Delaware count too (and arguably even Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island).

You really can't make argument just off one election.  Both Ohio and Iowa did move sharply last year, but neither one moved or trended Republican in the prior elections.  Same with Indiana, it moved sharply Democratic in 2008, but really showed no trend prior.  Colorado and Virginia on the other hand  were already showing signs of becoming more Democratic before they flipped.

Now, that isn't to say the potential of those states from moving away from swing status isn't a possibility, it certainly is, especially if the Democrats don't improve with white working class voters, however one election cycle is simply not enough to tell.

[Hammy]

Something else that needs taken into consideration, most of the country had a visible rightward swing, thanks in part to reduced turnout among Dems/progressives.

[Schiff for Senate]

I don't know if you should be happy about this, because it just shows the GOP has a national popular vote problem. Democrats won OR, DE and arguably VA quite convincingly compared to Trump's narrow margin in FL. I mean VA went blue by roughly five points, and FL went red by one point. So if VA is closer to the national average, all it really means is the nation as a whole has a clear Democratic tilt. VA is much less competitive than FL, even in 2021.