How does Obama not eventually become POTUS?

[mencken]

It seems that the country was eager to prove it was capable of electing a black President, and Obama was the only candidate with the stature and ambition to fulfill that desire. Clinton winning the 2008 primaries merely would have delayed it until 2012 or 2016, and it is difficult to see Obama not winning the Senate seat in 2004 (maybe if Moseley-Braun wins re-election in 1998?) I suppose there is a remote possibility that Deval Patrick becomes the first black President.

[mvd10]

Maybe Hillary winning in 2008 with Romney beating her in 2012 (Hillary isn't a strong campaigner like Obama) and winning reelection in 2016 against Obama? Losing a presidential election probably would be the end of his career, and I think Romney would have had a strong chance to win reelection had he won in 2012, even against someone like Obama.

If Kerry had won in 2004 I think Romney or McCain would have defeated him in 2008 only to be defeated by Obama (or maybe Feingold) in 2012.

If Hillary wins 2008 and wins reelection I suppose Obama is the 2016 nominee (she probably would have picked some boring white man to be VP, so Obama wins the 2016 primaries) and he probably defeats the Republican nominee.

Now it's interesting to see who the GOP nominee would be in that case. Without a black president Trump probably wouldn't have been the 2016 nominee. I even wonder whether the tea party would be as strong. Sure, there still would have been anti-government backlash and a 2010 Republican wave, but I'm not sure whether the tea party would be as strong without a black president. And Hillary would have focused more on economic recovery instead of healthcare reform, so no Obamacare (or Hillarycare).

Anyway, different circumstances in the early years of Obama's career would make enormous differences, so that's probably the best answer.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Romney beats President Clinton in 2012 and he likely cruises to reelection in 2016 . Obama likely loses by 4 points and due to that he no longer will be POTUS.


That is the easiest way

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Because history is preordained and free will is an illusion

[Kingpoleon]

2009-2013: Hillary Clinton/Evan Bayh
2013-2021: Mitt Romney/Mitch Daniels
2021-2025: Mia Love/Brian Sandoval

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Because history is preordained and free will is an illusion

YES!!!

[Illini Moderate]

I like how everyone here seems to assume that Hillary would have only won one term and Romney 2

[mencken]

I like how everyone here seems to assume that Hillary would have only won one term and Romney 2

She did lose to Donald Trump...

Although I think that white guilt would have trounced incumbency advantage in 2016.

[mvd10]

I like how everyone here seems to assume that Hillary would have only won one term and Romney 2

I think that pretty much every incumbent president would win 2016 while almost every incumbent president (except Obama because he just is a superior campaigner) would face an extremely close race in 2012.