AHCA Impact on 2018 Elections Part II

[McGovernForPrez]

So last ACHA debacle 538 posted an article about it's unpopularity. Here's a new one :https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-health-care-bill-could-be-a-job-killer-for-gop-incumbents/

The attack ads against house republicans practically write themselves. There was a provision in the new bill allowing rape, domestic abuse, and C-sections to be pre-existing conditions. I think we can all agree that Darrel Issa has got to be one of the dumbest politicians on the planet for casting this bill's deciding vote. Hello Congressman Applegate!

[Pericles]

If Trumpcare passes, Republicans will lose the House.

[Deblano]

If Trumpcare passes, Republicans will lose the House.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I'm not counting my chickens yet, but I think that after today, we can expect California's House delegation to be around 90% Democrat in two years.  Lots of retirements were just decided, I think.

[MAINEiac4434]

If Trumpcare passes, Republicans will lose the House.

[Stranger in a strange land]

If Trumpcare passes, Republicans will lose the House.

If it really passes and becomes law, they could lose the senate too.

[Xing]

I'm not quite willing to say that the House is gone for Republicans if Trumpcare passes, but it'll definitely be in danger, and Republicans like Comstock and Issa are probably DOA.

[moderatevoter]

I'm not quite willing to say that the House is gone for Republicans if Trumpcare passes, but it'll definitely be in danger, and Republicans like Comstock and Issa are probably DOA.

Comstock voted NO, but she could plausibly be washed away anyway.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Democrats control the house 435-0. Not even NE-3 is free from the purge.

[Holmes]

I'm not quite willing to say that the House is gone for Republicans if Trumpcare passes, but it'll definitely be in danger, and Republicans like Comstock and Issa are probably DOA.

Comstock voted NO, but she could plausibly be washed away anyway.

Comstock would easily be washed away. She made the right decision for her political career but Republican leadership has doomed her.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Honestly, if Comstock wins, the democratic party should just dissolve.

[windjammer]

It will have an impact like Hillarycare and Obamacare did have an impact too.
Will that be enough to take the house ? Just that alone no but it has Weakened many incumbents.

[The_Doctor]

I wouldn't make judgments based on the House version unless the Senate version mirrors it. Basically it would be irresponsible to judge this early. I strongly suspect the Senate will bury the bill or make it strongly more palatable.

Also please remember this isn't a reverse 2010. A lot of districts are heavily Republican naturally and are unlikely to elect Democrats. We're not in an era where Republicans are dislodged from Congressional majorities easily. The 2010 wave happened because a lot of people by default wanted a Republican congressional majority.

I'm sticking to marginal Democratic gains.

[Skill and Chance]

Democrats control the house 435-0. Not even NE-3 is free from the purge.

This, and Claire McCaskill wins every county in MO by at least 20 points and then the presidency in 2020 in 538-0 landslide. Even Barrasso is swept away on election day.

Oh, you wanted a serious answer? I doubt this will hurt the GOP much unless it is passed in the Senate without any major changes to the bill. I know this forum has already decided that 2018 will be a reverse 2010 (or worse) for Republicans, though.

Edit: Like windjammer said, if this debate is dragged on forever, it could weaken House Republicans in Clinton districts, but there are 18 months left until election day, so yeah...

It won't be the defining issue of the election unless it actually becomes law, but Cap and Trade did have a measurable effect on 2010 even though it only passed the House.  Probably cost the Dems 10ish Appalachian seats that wouldn't have defected over Obamacare alone.

Basically, Dems need to either win back a bunch of working class areas concerned about losing health coverage or find a way to get another 5 point swing out of the Southern suburbs (if tax reform fails, that will help their cause).

I do think that MT-AL just became interesting again because of this.  It's not clear what effect it will have in places like VA-10, IL-06, GA-06, and TX-07 where, statistically speaking, everyone already had health insurance before Obamacare.

[Skill and Chance]

I wouldn't make judgments based on the House version unless the Senate version mirrors it. Basically it would be irresponsible to judge this early. I strongly suspect the Senate will bury the bill or make it strongly more palatable.

Also please remember this isn't a reverse 2010. A lot of districts are heavily Republican naturally and are unlikely to elect Democrats. We're not in an era where Republicans are dislodged from Congressional majorities easily. The 2010 wave happened because a lot of people by default wanted a Republican congressional majority.

I'm sticking to marginal Democratic gains.

True, but all those Upper South Dems who had been in office forever going from easy wins to losing in 10-20 point landslides in 2010 implies that it is possible for Dems to e.g. go from tied to winning the white college grad vote 60/38 in a wave scenario.  Keep in mind, there is probably a good slice of the electorate that only voted GOP for congress last time because they were sure Clinton would win and didn't want either side to have full control.  That's what Republicans really need to be concerned about right now: all of the 2016 Johnson/McMullin/Write-in voters deciding to just vote Dem now that Trump actually won.

[SteveRogers]

The AHCA doesn't go into effect till 2020 so even if it did pass...ACA would remain in place and no one would suddenly lose their insurance until after the elections

That didn't matter in 2010

[Adam Griffin]

Using 538's AHCA approval model, I made this map showing all districts where their model shows AHCA disapproval above 45%. If they all flipped, it'd be 80 seats. The number is very close to an earlier scenario I used (2014 GOP turnout vs 2016 Dem turnout), which flipped 77 seats.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Since when did the house have 445 members?

[Dr. Arch]

Ryan's seat flipping would be the best thing ever.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Ryan's seat flipping would be the best thing ever.

There was always a possibility Ryan could be Foleyed he undeperforms compared to other Republican representative in WI. AHCA will effect Govenor races the most though.

[BuckeyeNut]

Using 538's AHCA approval model, I made this map showing all districts where their model shows AHCA disapproval above 45%. If they all flipped, it'd be 80 seats. The number is very close to an earlier scenario I used (2014 GOP turnout vs 2016 Dem turnout), which flipped 77 seats.

ACHA 1.0 polled at 17% approval. Do we know when 2.0 went to this nebulous ~45% disapproval?

[Adam Griffin]

Using 538's AHCA approval model, I made this map showing all districts where their model shows AHCA disapproval above 45%. If they all flipped, it'd be 80 seats. The number is very close to an earlier scenario I used (2014 GOP turnout vs 2016 Dem turnout), which flipped 77 seats.

ACHA 1.0 polled at 17% approval. Do we know when 2.0 went to this nebulous ~45% disapproval?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Virginiá]

Once again proving just how tribal politics has become. In many cases, actual policies barely even register. It's all about what your candidate-of-choice supports, and what you think your "team" expects of you.