Clyde1998
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,936
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« on: May 06, 2017, 02:36:27 PM » |
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I think that if Labour had a decent leader in Scotland, they wouldn't be getting overtaken by the Conservatives. I think Labour took Scotland for granted and didn't realise that a sizeable proportion of their votes in Scotland were more of an anti-Conservative vote than a pro-Labour vote. The independence referendum dispelled the myth that Scotland voting Labour could prevent a Conservative government, there has only been two periods of time since 1945 that removing Scottish votes would've lead to a different largest party in the Commons: between 1964 and 1966, and between February 1974 and October 1974. This contributed to Labour's demise in 2015.
Additionally, it's worth noting that there was an opinion poll for the Westminster election conducted about two weeks after the independence referendum; that showed the SNP on 34% and Labour on 32%. The same poll had a question on Holyrood too - that showed a very similar race to a poll taken by the same company a year prior. The real change in public opinion for that election occurred following the resignation of Johann Lamont - when she described Scottish Labour as a "branch office" of the London party. The election of Jim Murphy, one of the lead campaigners for Better Together, didn't help Labour's cause in Scotland to be able to win back 'Yes' voters following the referendum.
For Labour to win a UK election, they have to win the most seats in England. With the division within the party and the potential collapse of the party in marginal seats, I feel that this is unlikely to happen again until 2027 at the earliest - unless Labour somehow turn it around in this election.
I think that the emergence of UKIP contributed to the destruction of the left more than Scottish nationalism - taking votes from both Labour and the Conservatives, in 2015, and moving to the Conservatives almost exclusively, this time. Similarly, the Greens and the Scottish Socialist Party took votes from Labour and the SNP in 2003, before moving to the SNP in 2007 (and not because of independence). While both of those parties are pro-independence, I don't think that's why people voted for them in 2003 and neither party probably made independence one of their main campaigning points then either (especially the Greens).
The only way that Scottish nationalism could have contributed to the demise of the left in the UK, is through devolution. The asymmetrical system that Labour introduced gave a platform for the SNP to become the largest party in Scotland, while angering people in England over the lack of devolution for them. Labour's lack of action when they formed the Scottish Executive helped their down fall, as why would you set up a Parliament with real power if you're not going to use the powers?
I think that Scottish nationalism is down the list of the main causes of the downfall of the left in the UK.
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