AL-SEN 2017: Moore +10 in GOP Primary

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Moore 30
Strange 20
Brooks "Low double digits" (Brooks internal)

https://www.conservativereview.com/articles/poll-roy-moore-zooms-to-commanding-lead-in-alabamas-senate-race

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

If Alabama elects Roy Moore as a senator, it should be forcibly expelled from the union.  Dominion Theology contradicts everything the First Amendment stands for and is therefore unconstitutional.

[Mike Thick]

Good lord, are they actually going to do this?

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Oh god no

[Skunk]

Gross.

[kyc0705]

[Classic Conservative]

Let's hope so!

[mvd10]

Oh please no. I mean, I have a soft spot for the SGP in the Netherlands but I don't really want the GOP to make fking Alabama competitive. And I don't really want people as Roy Moore in the senate.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Moore is 70, which is pretty old to be starting a career in the U.S. Senate. Still, this is pretty much the only thing that could put the Dems in striking distance of a win, but even then everything would have to go right and there would be no margin for error.

[MT Treasurer]

Luther Strange is basically the embodiment of the corrupt "establishment" politician who is backed by McConnell & co., so I would love to see him lose in the primary.

Either way, the special election is probably Likely R, with or without Strange.

[GlobeSoc]

What would be the last time a state party was so incompetent?

[The Other Castro]

What Democrats could have a chance in case Moore gets the nomination? Ron Crumpton isn't good enough, and Sue Bel Cobb has already ruled out a run (to possibly run for Governor). Some potentially interested Democrats include:

-Roger Bedford, former State Senator and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996
-Elaine Beech, State Representative
-Chris England, State Representative
-Craig Ford, State Representative
-Walt Maddox, Mayor of Tuscaloosa

[BuckeyeNut]

Cobb could jump in if she believes Moore will be the GOP nominee.

[Pollster]

Conventional wisdom says that Alabama should not be competitive but a flawed GOP candidate in a low turnout special with a well-funded Dem challenger could make this a toss-up. Both Cobb and Maddox have made noise about potential statewide runs, I suspect Cobb would run for Senate if Moore is the nominee and make it a race. Very interesting that the path to a Dem majority in 2018 might very well run through Alabama of all places.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

What Democrats could have a chance in case Moore gets the nomination? Ron Crumpton isn't good enough, and Sue Bel Cobb has already ruled out a run (to possibly run for Governor). Some potentially interested Democrats include:

-Roger Bedford, former State Senator and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996
-Elaine Beech, State Representative
-Chris England, State Representative
-Craig Ford, State Representative
-Walt Maddox, Mayor of Tuscaloosa

Are any of these considered rising stars in the ADP?  Remember the ADP has no money and no infrastructure, so any Dem candidate would have to run a damn good campaign with very limited resources.

I don't think this seat is touchable under any circumstances.  If Moore wins the primary, it's his seat, thus signifying the impending doom of the First Amendment.

[This account no longer in use.]

Safe R if anyone besides Moore wins the primary. If Moore wins, it heavily depends on the Democrat candidate.

By the way, is there any possibility of a Republican running independent against Moore? I don't follow Alabama politics too much.

[Maxwell]

yes yes its time for Democrats to seriously contest this seat dead serious Roy Moore only won his Supreme Court seat by 3 and that's before having to resign AGAIN + special election.

looks like Strange is going to be Burris'd out of the seat. TERRIFIC!

[Holmes]

There will be a another election in 2018 for the remainder of the term after this one, right?

[Mr. Smith]

yes yes its time for Democrats to seriously contest this seat dead serious Roy Moore only won his Supreme Court seat by 3 and that's before having to resign AGAIN + special election.

looks like Strange is going to be Burris'd out of the seat. TERRIFIC!

Not Kirk'd out (by which I mean Paul Kirk in Massachusetts)

But seriously what are the odds of getting a reverse Coakley-Brown situation out of this?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

There will be a another election in 2018 for the remainder of the term after this one, right?

No, the winner of the special will serve the remainder of the term until Jan 2021.

[Maxwell]

Am I the only one who thinks Strange wouldn't be much more electable than Moore? The guy basically screems "corrupt establishment".

I agree that Strange is a pretty bad candidate, but I think Strange is a slightly more electable general election candidate because "muh tax cuts" business Republicans would be okay with voting for him, while Moore may push these people toward sitting out or even voting for *insert here* Democrat.

Then again, Strange has given some pretty consistently unimpressive performances for an Alabama Republican even as other Alabama Republicans soared to elections (for example: Strange lost to Jim Folsom Jr. in 2006 for Lieutenant Governor even as Bob Riley won re-election by 15), and that was before the corruption angle popped up.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

yes yes its time for Democrats to seriously contest this seat dead serious Roy Moore only won his Supreme Court seat by 3 and that's before having to resign AGAIN + special election.

looks like Strange is going to be Burris'd out of the seat. TERRIFIC!

Oh wow, I forgot about that.



A Democrat winning an off-year Senate election in Alabama would be the equivalent of a Republican winning an off-year Senate election in... Massachusetts.  Hmmm...

[Lachi]

oh please don't do this Alabama...

[This account no longer in use.]

Strange is a bad candidate, but not bad enough to make Alabama competitive (unless the Democrat candidate is very good).

[Maxwell]

If a Democrat wins by 2 or 3 or so against Strange or Moore, what are the odds of that person getting reelected in 2020, especially with Senate control potentially being at stake? Which credible Republican candidates could run?

But this is all speculation anyway. Republicans will probably hold the seat in the end, whether they run Moore or not.

yeah, this is rare range folks. A democrat would almost certainly lose by at least 5 if they ran in 2020 no matter how popular they became after winning in 2017.