What would 2020 look like if Hillary was renominated?
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  What would 2020 look like if Hillary was renominated?
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Author Topic: What would 2020 look like if Hillary was renominated?  (Read 1281 times)
West_Midlander
Junior Chimp
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« on: May 07, 2017, 08:09:56 AM »

I saw this saying Trump would beat Clinton by 43-40 in the popular vote if "Election 2016" was re-held.

Not only would Trump win the popular vote by +3 instead of losing by -2 but non-Trump/Hillary vote shares would increase from 5.7% to 17%

If the remaining 17% was distributed accordingly (considering that Johnson, Stein and McMullin ran again):
Johnson: 10%
Stein: 6%
McMullin: 2%
Write-Ins/Other: 1%

What would electoral map look like, what would be the close states in a rematch?
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Beet
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« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2017, 08:16:26 AM »

Initially people are reluctant to support a "loser" but over time the reality of a Trump presidency has settled in and there is a desire to repudiate it. Also, people realize it's either him or Hillary so the 3rd party vote falls away fast.

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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2017, 08:24:18 AM »
« Edited: May 07, 2017, 08:26:29 AM by Singletxguyforfun »


She needs to just go away. She lost to Donald f**king Trump
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Beet
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2017, 08:47:28 AM »

She needs to just go away. She lost to Donald f**king Trump

So would Elizabeth Warren. It just goes to show how misogynistic this country is, that it'd pick Trump over a woman. And we lecture the Middle East! They are probably laughing at us.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2017, 08:53:04 AM »

I saw this saying Trump would beat Clinton by 43-40 in the popular vote if "Election 2016" was re-held.

Not only would Trump win the popular vote by +3 instead of losing by -2 but non-Trump/Hillary vote shares would increase from 5.7% to 17%

If the remaining 17% was distributed accordingly (considering that Johnson, Stein and McMullin ran again):
Johnson: 10%
Stein: 6%
McMullin: 2%
Write-Ins/Other: 1%

What would electoral map look like, what would be the close states in a rematch?

Those aren't the right 3rd party #s.  Here is the poll:

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1186a1Trump100Days.pdf

and it has:

Trump 43%
Clinton 40%
Johnson 5%
Stein 3%

Note that that's among people who claim to have voted in 2016.  Among all adults, the results are quite different:

Clinton 41%
Trump 37%
Johnson 5%
Stein 3%
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2017, 09:22:19 AM »

It would mainly be a referendum on Trump, so it would end up being determined by his approval rating.

A generic Democrat might run two points ahead of Hillary.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2017, 09:22:57 AM »
« Edited: May 07, 2017, 01:14:27 PM by pbrower2a »

Donald Trump has so chaotic a Presidency that he never really recovers. Hillary Clinton campaigns more effectively, and the FBI, CIA, and military are leaking all sorts of stories of incompetence and corruption that the President can't handle.



Minimum. Republicans lose Senate seats that they had no idea that they could lose.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2017, 09:26:23 AM »

She needs to just go away. She lost to Donald f**king Trump

So would Elizabeth Warren. It just goes to show how misogynistic this country is, that it'd pick Trump over a woman. And we lecture the Middle East! They are probably laughing at us.

Her being a woman had nothing to do with it. She stood for nothing, was uninspiring, and was a very shady and corrupt career political hack anyway. Trump is far from perfect but he's better than Hill-dawg
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West_Midlander
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2017, 09:39:50 AM »

I saw this saying Trump would beat Clinton by 43-40 in the popular vote if "Election 2016" was re-held.

Not only would Trump win the popular vote by +3 instead of losing by -2 but non-Trump/Hillary vote shares would increase from 5.7% to 17%

If the remaining 17% was distributed accordingly (considering that Johnson, Stein and McMullin ran again):
Johnson: 10%
Stein: 6%
McMullin: 2%
Write-Ins/Other: 1%

What would electoral map look like, what would be the close states in a rematch?

Those aren't the right 3rd party #s.  Here is the poll:

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1186a1Trump100Days.pdf

and it has:

Trump 43%
Clinton 40%
Johnson 5%
Stein 3%

Note that that's among people who claim to have voted in 2016.  Among all adults, the results are quite different:

Clinton 41%
Trump 37%
Johnson 5%
Stein 3%

Thanks, I had only seen the Clinton/Trump numbers so I just distributed the remainder among third, fourth and fifth place candidates.
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West_Midlander
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2017, 09:42:57 AM »


She needs to just go away. She lost to Donald f**king Trump
I agree. I don't necessarily think third parties would see a considerable surge (unless tons of Dems defected into a newly formed party b/c current third parties have been around for ages and gotten nowhere). If not many voted for people other than Trump/Clinton, Trump would probably be re-elected by a large EC margin and voter turnout would be ridiculously low all around.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2017, 10:42:48 AM »
« Edited: May 07, 2017, 10:47:37 AM by Liberalrocks »



Clinton 51% (319 electoral votes)
Trump  45% (219 electoral votes)
Others  4%

Closest States: Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2017, 11:11:39 AM »



Clinton: 334
Trump: 204

Complete guess, but I think she'd win. Though I might be a little generous with this map. I do hope the party nominates someone else, someone who will be very hard for Trump to beat.
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Shadows
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« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2017, 12:00:49 PM »
« Edited: May 07, 2017, 12:06:23 PM by Shadows »

Trumps win Maine, Minnesota in addition to all the 2016 states & perhaps even NV/CO due to record low turnout among Bernie wing of the Dems hating 2 unpopular, corrupt, inauthentic, war mongering losers. Let's be honest, even with all the f*** up, in some polls Clinton is still more hated than Trump even now. She is a disaster & is flat out unelectable!

Apart from the record low-turnout & a bigger win by Trump, the Democratic party fractures as supporters of Bernie supporters form a new party or go to the Greens which get a competent leader. The new party/greens don't replace the Dem & don't have major successes but take enough votes to ensure the Democratic party doesn't come to power for many years as Republicans from 2024 denounce Trump & embrace moderate leaders like Kasich to fix the mess !

Also Trump has likely replaced Kennedy & RBG & now replaces Breyer & Thomas in a massive conservative majority. Gay marriage & Roe vs Wade are both overturned. The Debt expands due to the increased effect on Trump's tax cuts & as interest rate tends to rise, it becomes difficult to service the debt. As a result, Medicaid is converted to bloc grant with even smaller benefits, most welfare programs are cut, Medicare & Social Security benefits are slashed to manage the increasing debt.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2017, 03:00:40 PM »

The only way she wins is if the economy has crashed by then.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #14 on: May 07, 2017, 03:31:45 PM »

She is problematic as hell. So is Trump but he is a man so he gets away with his BS. It really could go either way since the election was so close in 2016.
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Spark
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« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2017, 03:32:31 PM »

An absolute debacle.
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President of the civil service full of trans activists
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« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2017, 03:36:52 PM »

Unless Trump really screws up, easy re-elex.
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nicholas.slaydon
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« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2017, 04:04:07 PM »

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