What would 2020 look like if Hillary was renominated? (user search)
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  What would 2020 look like if Hillary was renominated? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What would 2020 look like if Hillary was renominated?  (Read 1312 times)
West_Midlander
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,982
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.19, S: 1.22

« on: May 07, 2017, 08:09:56 AM »

I saw this saying Trump would beat Clinton by 43-40 in the popular vote if "Election 2016" was re-held.

Not only would Trump win the popular vote by +3 instead of losing by -2 but non-Trump/Hillary vote shares would increase from 5.7% to 17%

If the remaining 17% was distributed accordingly (considering that Johnson, Stein and McMullin ran again):
Johnson: 10%
Stein: 6%
McMullin: 2%
Write-Ins/Other: 1%

What would electoral map look like, what would be the close states in a rematch?
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West_Midlander
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,982
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.19, S: 1.22

« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2017, 09:39:50 AM »

I saw this saying Trump would beat Clinton by 43-40 in the popular vote if "Election 2016" was re-held.

Not only would Trump win the popular vote by +3 instead of losing by -2 but non-Trump/Hillary vote shares would increase from 5.7% to 17%

If the remaining 17% was distributed accordingly (considering that Johnson, Stein and McMullin ran again):
Johnson: 10%
Stein: 6%
McMullin: 2%
Write-Ins/Other: 1%

What would electoral map look like, what would be the close states in a rematch?

Those aren't the right 3rd party #s.  Here is the poll:

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1186a1Trump100Days.pdf

and it has:

Trump 43%
Clinton 40%
Johnson 5%
Stein 3%

Note that that's among people who claim to have voted in 2016.  Among all adults, the results are quite different:

Clinton 41%
Trump 37%
Johnson 5%
Stein 3%

Thanks, I had only seen the Clinton/Trump numbers so I just distributed the remainder among third, fourth and fifth place candidates.
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West_Midlander
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,982
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.19, S: 1.22

« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2017, 09:42:57 AM »


She needs to just go away. She lost to Donald f**king Trump
I agree. I don't necessarily think third parties would see a considerable surge (unless tons of Dems defected into a newly formed party b/c current third parties have been around for ages and gotten nowhere). If not many voted for people other than Trump/Clinton, Trump would probably be re-elected by a large EC margin and voter turnout would be ridiculously low all around.
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