MI Governor 2018

[SingingAnalyst]

Gov. Snyder's popularity is in the tank because of the Flint water crisis and the tax on pensions. Who wins in 2018, taking office in Jan. 2019?

[Nyvin]

Michigan regularly flips the gov house to the party that doesn't hold the White House.   That plus Snyder being quite toxic now leads me to believe Gretchen has a really good chance next year.

Gretchen will win both the primary and general.

The State Senate map is horrible for Democrats, not just gerrymandering but the geography of Michigan really works against them.   The State House, however, could flip.

[Pollster]

My guess is Kildee decides to defend his seat (which swung from Obama 61-38 to Clinton 50-46) and Whitmer wins the nomination easily barring a challenge from a celebrity candidate (Michael Moore the first that comes to mind, I doubt he goes for it).

Whitmer wins the GE by a comfortable margin. Big hypothetical, but if she is reelected and maintains strong numbers I suspect she will be discussed as a VP pick as early as 2024 if not a POTUS candidate herself.

[tallguy23]

My guess is Kildee decides to defend his seat (which swung from Obama 61-38 to Clinton 50-46) and Whitmer wins the nomination easily barring a challenge from a celebrity candidate (Michael Moore the first that comes to mind, I doubt he goes for it).

Whitmer wins the GE by a comfortable margin. Big hypothetical, but if she is reelected and maintains strong numbers I suspect she will be discussed as a VP pick as early as 2024 if not a POTUS candidate herself.

I just saw a clip from 2013 where she spoke out against a restrictive abortion ban. She discussed her own rape as her reason why. It was seriously emotional and courageous.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiHHg7O6zHM

[SingingAnalyst]

My guess is Kildee decides to defend his seat (which swung from Obama 61-38 to Clinton 50-46) and Whitmer wins the nomination easily barring a challenge from a celebrity candidate (Michael Moore the first that comes to mind, I doubt he goes for it).

Whitmer wins the GE by a comfortable margin. Big hypothetical, but if she is reelected and maintains strong numbers I suspect she will be discussed as a VP pick as early as 2024 if not a POTUS candidate herself.

I just saw a clip from 2013 where she spoke out against a restrictive abortion ban. She discussed her own rape as her reason why. It was seriously emotional and courageous.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiHHg7O6zHM

I agree, that clip might help put her over the top, and even win her support among people who consider themselves pro-life.

[VPH]

Hope Abdul El-Sayed wins!

[Frodo]

The State Senate map is horrible for Democrats, not just gerrymandering but the geography of Michigan really works against them.   The State House, however, could flip.

Does the governor have veto power over redistricting in Michigan, or do they have a North Carolina setup?

[Virginiá]

Does the governor have veto power over redistricting in Michigan, or do they have a North Carolina setup?

Both sets of map(s) are subject to veto.

[henster]

I am down on Abdul, this race is too important to have some guy whose never run for anything before to be the nominee. Whitmer has won six election and led the Senate D caucus she knows what it takes to win.

[JMT]

Kildee will announce today that he is NOT running for Governor, will run for reelection instead.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/kildee-passes-run-governors-race

[Kamala]

Kildee will announce today that he is NOT running for Governor, will run for reelection instead.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/kildee-passes-run-governors-race

Looks like its gonna be a coronation for Whitmer, who is a pretty good candidate, all things considered.

[Holmes]

Yeah it's probably Whitmer's to lose at this point, barring an unexpectedly amazing Republican candidate.

[Illiniwek]

I'll be ready to vote for the D in MI, but I have so little faith in this state party right now, that I wouldn't be surprised if they screw this up.

[Suburbia]

At this point, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer. If she is elected governor in 2018, it would be historical. Jennifer Granholm, the first female Michigan governor, a Democrat, and then Whitmer.

However, if Lansing mayor Virg Bernero runs for governor again, it's Lean Bernero in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Virg is a tough campaigner, and could have beaten Rick Snyder in a 2014 rematch.

[Duke of York]

At this point, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer. If she is elected governor in 2018, it would be historical. Jennifer Granholm, the first female Michigan governor, a Democrat, and then Whitmer.

However, if Lansing mayor Virg Bernero runs for governor again, it's Lean Bernero in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Virg is a tough campaigner, and could have beaten Rick Snyder in a 2014 rematch.

The election is probably Whitmer's to lose at this point. How likely is it that Bernero runs? I haven't heard any talk he will run again.

[BuckeyeNut]

El-Sayed is cool, but he should have stayed in Detroit. Could have run for Mayor down the line and built up a base. It was foolish to leave.

[Horus]

Whitmer will make a great governor.

[ShadowRocket]

I preferred Kildee, but Whitmer is a decent candidate. I'm confidant about the Dems' prospects.

[SingingAnalyst]

I preferred Kildee, but Whitmer is a decent candidate. I'm confidant about the Dems' prospects.

I'm confident too. Even if the GOP nominates a decent candidate, which they probably will (Candice Miller and Ruth Johnson are both possible), Clinton Republicans will see a vote for a Dem as a vote against Trump, while Johnson supporters and even some disgrunted Trump supporters will vote Dem for change. (Mark Schauer in 2014 received 44.4% of the vote in Macomb, where voters were already souring on Snyder).

[Duke of York]

I preferred Kildee, but Whitmer is a decent candidate. I'm confidant about the Dems' prospects.

I think she will win too. Hopefully the Democrats get the other statewide offices too and the state legislature. I know the State Senate will be nearly impossible unless there is a massive wave.

[Nyvin]

I'll be ready to vote for the D in MI, but I have so little faith in this state party right now, that I wouldn't be surprised if they screw this up.

Why?   They win a majority of the votes in the state legislature all the time,  and it wasn't long ago they had the governor seat.    They still hold both Senator seats too.   

Really the state Dem party in Michigan is quite effective, they just get screwed by both geography and gerrymandering.

[Duke of York]

I'll be ready to vote for the D in MI, but I have so little faith in this state party right now, that I wouldn't be surprised if they screw this up.

Why?   They win a majority of the votes in the state legislature all the time,  and it wasn't long ago they had the governor seat.    They still hold both Senator seats too.   

Really the state Dem party in Michigan is quite effective, they just get screwed by both geography and gerrymandering.

Hopefully they don't get screwed next year and get the state legislature.

[Illiniwek]

I'll be ready to vote for the D in MI, but I have so little faith in this state party right now, that I wouldn't be surprised if they screw this up.

Why?   They win a majority of the votes in the state legislature all the time,  and it wasn't long ago they had the governor seat.    They still hold both Senator seats too.   

Really the state Dem party in Michigan is quite effective, they just get screwed by both geography and gerrymandering.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I have the Republicans holding the Michigan Senate since 1984, and the Michigan House 16 of the past 22 years. That is pretty weak on the Democrats' part.

[Nyvin]

I'll be ready to vote for the D in MI, but I have so little faith in this state party right now, that I wouldn't be surprised if they screw this up.

Why?   They win a majority of the votes in the state legislature all the time,  and it wasn't long ago they had the governor seat.    They still hold both Senator seats too.   

Really the state Dem party in Michigan is quite effective, they just get screwed by both geography and gerrymandering.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I have the Republicans holding the Michigan Senate since 1984, and the Michigan House 16 of the past 22 years. That is pretty weak on the Democrats' part.

Look over the total votes,  the Democrats do win a majority of the votes regularly.   They're just compacted into urban areas and the districts are drawn to favor Republicans.

[SingingAnalyst]

I'll be ready to vote for the D in MI, but I have so little faith in this state party right now, that I wouldn't be surprised if they screw this up.

Why?   They win a majority of the votes in the state legislature all the time,  and it wasn't long ago they had the governor seat.    They still hold both Senator seats too.  

Really the state Dem party in Michigan is quite effective, they just get screwed by both geography and gerrymandering.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I have the Republicans holding the Michigan Senate since 1984, and the Michigan House 16 of the past 22 years. That is pretty weak on the Democrats' part.

Look over the total votes,  the Democrats do win a majority of the votes regularly.   They're just compacted into urban areas and the districts are drawn to favor Republicans.

Not only that, but much the GOP appeal outstate has to do with standing against the Dem leadership from Detroit. These types of appeals are less resonant with Millennials; once again, this young, politically active generation, dismayed that a state with 2/3 of the world's fresh water supply cannot provide clean water to one of its largest cities, will change the politics of a state.