OH-PPD Buckeye State poll: Mandel +5 against Brown

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

ROTFL

[Shadows]

I told you guys, Ohio will be more Republican than Texas.

"But guys, we need to win back the rural people and WWCers!"

Yeah, they're not coming back...

Have you ever considered that Democrats pursuing some of these upscale, conservative leaning White voters in suburban areas is not what most in the party WANT to do?

Because you have to play the hand your dealt? It's a lost cause trying to get the WWC to be a Democratic group at this point, as much as you'd want them to be. They can shave the margins maybe, but that's not the road to a House majority. And if they identify more with cultural Trumpism, then there's very little Dems can do to change their minds, absent economic collapse.

If the Democrats give up on the WWC, the party is done. MN, NH & maine are possibly losses & even Arizona & Georgia will not be enough to tip the scales.

And that is not all - Dems have 1 Senator from Ohio, 2 from MI, 1 from PA, 2 from MN, 1 from IN, 1 from MO, 1 from WI - 9 Seats - You can at the optimal get 1 from FL, 2 each from AZ & GA (if you are very lucky).

Not just that the 2 Iowa seats (Atleast Joni Ernst's seat, Portman, Johnson, Blunt etc) are all vulnerable which could make up potential losses.

There are multiple house seats to be won as well. The Sun-belt will fully come into play when Texas is a swing state & that will take another 10-12 years ! So till then, the WWC is the only option.

Not just that, the WWC don't support the GOP's economic agenda, are opposed to cuts in entitlements & strongly believe in most of the Dem platform -  Raising the minimum wage, better education/healthcare investment Infrastructure, Anti-Free Trade deal ( a historic left position),  etc.

This is a very lose fragile coalition that the GOP has & we saw in France Le Pen collapsed & so did Wilders in Netherlands. It is possible for them to align with GOP on a long term basis.

Add to that the rich suburban folks will 100% go to GOP when it will be Warren vs Kasich (GOP). They don't align with Democratic values of Universal healthcare, higher taxes on wealthy (every Democratic president, even 3rd way folks like Clinton & Obama has increased considerably). higher minimum wage, bigger government programs etc !

The so-called economic conservative voters will dump the Democrats the second a Kasich is the nominee. Secondly, it will be a total betrayal of everything the Democrats have been fighting for almost a 100 years now & will turn on their base which will create a 3rd more stronger left party like Greens (or hopefully a better one) & will effectively kill the Democrats for ever attaining power !

[Hindsight was 2020]

I told you guys, Ohio will be more Republican than Texas.

"But guys, we need to win back the rural people and WWCers!"

Yeah, they're not coming back...

Have you ever considered that Democrats pursuing some of these upscale, conservative leaning White voters in suburban areas is not what most in the party WANT to do?

Because you have to play the hand your dealt? It's a lost cause trying to get the WWC to be a Democratic group at this point, as much as you'd want them to be. They can shave the margins maybe, but that's not the road to a House majority. And if they identify more with cultural Trumpism, then there's very little Dems can do to change their minds, absent economic collapse.

If the Democrats give up on the WWC, the party is done. MN, NH & maine are possibly losses & even Arizona & Georgia will not be enough to tip the scales.

And that is not all - Dems have 1 Senator from Ohio, 2 from MI, 1 from PA, 2 from MN, 1 from IN, 1 from MO, 1 from WI - 9 Seats - You can at the optimal get 1 from FL, 2 each from AZ & GA (if you are very lucky).

Not just that the 2 Iowa seats (Atleast Joni Ernst's seat, Portman, Johnson, Blunt etc) are all vulnerable which could make up potential losses.

There are multiple house seats to be won as well. The Sun-belt will fully come into play when Texas is a swing state & that will take another 10-12 years ! So till then, the WWC is the only option.

Not just that, the WWC don't support the GOP's economic agenda, are opposed to cuts in entitlements & strongly believe in most of the Dem platform -  Raising the minimum wage, better education/healthcare investment Infrastructure, Anti-Free Trade deal ( a historic left position),  etc.

This is a very lose fragile coalition that the GOP has & we saw in France Le Pen collapsed & so did Wilders in Netherlands. It is possible for them to align with GOP on a long term basis.

Add to that the rich suburban folks will 100% go to GOP when it will be Warren vs Kasich (GOP). They don't align with Democratic values of Universal healthcare, higher taxes on wealthy (every Democratic president, even 3rd way folks like Clinton & Obama has increased considerably). higher minimum wage, bigger government programs etc !

The so-called economic conservative voters will dump the Democrats the second a Kasich is the nominee. Secondly, it will be a total betrayal of everything the Democrats have been fighting for almost a 100 years now & will turn on their base which will create a 3rd more stronger left party like Greens (or hopefully a better one) & will effectively kill the Democrats for ever attaining power !

Kasich will never be the nom the GOP has embraced WWC anti-intellectualism as its identity. An also suburbans are becoming more liberal as part of the den trend because Milenials and Gen Xers are moving in an they are not becoming more conservative as they age

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I have been curious at this race for a while but this poll confirms my suspicions. I think Mandel will be elected and the trend will be set that whoever holds this senate seat will not be in office for more than 2 terms.

Not a chance

[Lothal1]

Sorry for commenting so late, but yall are calling this a junk poll yet believing polls during the election that had Hillary barely behind in Kansas or above by 12 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown is definately in a competetive race, as will the governor race.  But, Sherrod Brown should slip by against Mandel. 

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

You guys have some great candidates in the state capable of taking down Sherrod Brown, but Mandel is not one of them. Why do yall have to play your hand so stupidly, and throw your weight behind this dummy?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You guys have some great candidates in the state capable of taking down Sherrod Brown, but Mandel is not one of them. Why do yall have to play your hand so stupidly, and throw your weight behind this dummy?

Because all they have is DeWine, Taylor and Josh Mandel

Portman and Kasich will be the last statewide officeholders, depending on Betty Sutton's performance in the competetive Gov race

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

You guys have some great candidates in the state capable of taking down Sherrod Brown, but Mandel is not one of them. Why do yall have to play your hand so stupidly, and throw your weight behind this dummy?

Because all they have is DeWine, Taylor and Josh Mandel

Portman and Kasich will be the last statewide officeholders, depending on Betty Sutton's performance in the competetive Gov race

Both of which are better than Mandel.

[Badger]

Hello? People?

lol at Trump +10 approval ratings. Joke poll.

Not to mention...

This pollster has Trump's approval rating at 52-45% in Florida. The website also posts articles with headlines like this: Here's the Trump Ad the Corrupt Mainstream Media Refuses to Run

So, yeah, take this polling agency with a huge grain of salt...

Real numbers at this point are likely Brown by mid to high singles.

[DavidB.]

Haha, lovely. Atlas is completely back in "every election ever will be won by Democrats, pollsters that show otherwise are Republican/junk" mode. Need I bring up the hilarious thread in which "total junk poll without a record" Trafalgar was dismissed when showing Trump up in WI/MI? Not saying this OH poll is correct, but I wouldn't dismiss it as quickly as most here do either.

[Rjjr77]

Is this poll good? Probably not, but the same people crushing this thing are slope ring over a worse internal in the az gov. Race

[Devout Centrist]

Wait a second, Kasich has lower approvals than Trump?!

[Dr. Arch]

Wait a second, Kasich has lower approvals than Trump?!

If this is true, the state has gone to sh**t.

[Rjjr77]

Wait a second, Kasich has lower approvals than Trump?!

Wouldn't surprise me, Kasich's pissed off the base in Ohio. Most Ohio posters don't think Kasich could win a GOP primary right now. I know I don't.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

OH has gone the way of WV/MO.

[SATW]

Mandel gonna shock the world in 2018!

Mandel for Senate!
Can you MANDEL it?
MAN up for Ohio!
Beat Sad Sherrod!

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Mandel belongs on the Addams Family.

[Brittain33]

Please stay on topic. Thank you. —mod.

[TJ in Oregon]

Wait a second, Kasich has lower approvals than Trump?!

Not saying the poll is accurate but.... Kasich will eventually have to deal with the fact that he can't play both sides and get everyone to like him. He took a gamble on the presidential race/resistance and it backfired badly. If he continues to double down he'll end up looking like the new Lincoln Chafee: in the end neither side will support him.

As it applies to this race, Kasich's stooge candidate Mike Gibbons will get nowhere with a solely negative campaign against Mandel. Mandel has many shortcomings, but most of them stem from his own solely negative campaign against Brown last time around. Brown is clearly the favorite right now as an incumbent running in what ought to be a good year for the Democrats, but Mandel's toxicity is highly overrated considering there's not much in particular most people remember about him that makes him toxic.

For Brown to win comfortably, he needs to maintain his WWC base, which is what got him elected in the first place. If he can combine that with some suburban anti-Trump support, he's golden. But if he goes all-in only for the latter, he could screw it up.

[jamestroll]

Haha, lovely. Atlas is completely back in "every election ever will be won by Democrats, pollsters that show otherwise are Republican/junk" mode. Need I bring up the hilarious thread in which "total junk poll without a record" Trafalgar was dismissed when showing Trump up in WI/MI? Not saying this OH poll is correct, but I wouldn't dismiss it as quickly as most here do either.

Early polls often are laughably inaccurate. I suspect Ohio will have a close finish between Brown and Mandel. Rematches falter at the end more often than not.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I told you guys, Ohio will be more Republican than Texas.

"But guys, we need to win back the rural people and WWCers!"

Yeah, they're not coming back...

I mean, we need to put in our best efforts in that demographic. I think that places like Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan can still be held onto.

This. Michigan and Wisconsin are still very winnable for the Democrats in 2020. As for Ohio and Iowa, it seems like we might have to let those go to prioritize North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia, but I think one election where the Republican candidate wins by a large margin isn't enough to throw in the towel on any state. I think that results in 2020 will really show whether Ohio and Iowa are truly gone from blue reach. I wouldn't be surprised if Ohio is, but something tells me Iowa will be a close race. Obama won it by over 5% in 2012 and almost 10% in 2008.