What would an EC map look like between these 2 political Parties in the US?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Let's say we didn't have Republicans or Democrats and instead had this:


Federalist Party:

Fiscally conservative
Pro business
Free Trade
More hawkish
Socially liberal
Pro immigration
Pro choice
Pro gun control
Market based solutions for healthcare and climate change

Labor Party:

Fiscally liberal
Pro Labor
Protectionist
More dovish
Socially conservative
Anti immigration
Pro life
Pro gun
Activist governmental solutions for healthcare/climate change


Which groups would form the base of each Party? Where would the tossup states be?

[Kingpoleon]

201: Sen. Ron Wyden(F-OR)/Gov. Susan Collins(F-MI)
201: Rep. Walter Jones, Sr.(L-NC)/Sen. Mary Landrieu(L-LA)
136: Tossup

[TheSaint250]

[Skill and Chance]

Not sure about the whole map, but the Federalist Party would have an extremely hard time winning the EC unless Texas actually leaned to them.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Not sure about the whole map, but the Federalist Party would have an extremely hard time winning the EC unless Texas actually leaned to them.

Texas is a very pro buisness state so it likely goes to the fedrealists

[Skill and Chance]

Not sure about the whole map, but the Federalist Party would have an extremely hard time winning the EC unless Texas actually leaned to them.

Texas is a very pro buisness state so it likely goes to the fedrealists

Federalist Party:

Pro choice
Pro gun control

[Technocracy Timmy]

Not sure about the whole map, but the Federalist Party would have an extremely hard time winning the EC unless Texas actually leaned to them.

I think they'd wrap up the east coast handedly along with the Pacific Northwest. At this point they need to win California and parts of the Interior Plains and Midwest.

Although Labor would have a structural advantage.

EDIT: also Labor's pro governmental solutions to climate change won't play well in certain parts of the country (including Texas).

[JA]

[Skill and Chance]

Not sure about the whole map, but the Federalist Party would have an extremely hard time winning the EC unless Texas actually leaned to them.

I think they'd wrap up the east coast handedly along with the Pacific Northwest. At this point they need to win California and parts of the Interior Plains and Midwest.

Although Labor would have a structural advantage.

EDIT: also Labor's pro governmental solutions to climate change won't play well in certain parts of the country (including Texas).

Good point.  As an aside, minus climate change and potentially health care (and with abortion mostly handled at the state level), this is where I see the Dems (Federalist) and GOP (Labor) being in 20ish years.  Although I think it's quite likely the "large" Southern and Western states will have turned the corner by then.

[Figueira]

Why are people so certain that West Virginia would vote for a party that supports "Activist governmental solutions for healthcare/climate change"?

[Bismarck]

Whatbi am drawing from this is that left wing economics are very unpopular.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Why are people so certain that West Virginia would vote for a party that supports "Activist governmental solutions for healthcare/climate change"?

Two things.

1. I don't think the healthcare argument hurts.

2. Keep in mind that both Parties here believe in climate change and are pursuing actions to combat it. So while Labor is more aggressive in their pursuits it's not like the Federalist Party is that much more on their side with keeping the coal mines running.

[Santander]

You are describing people who don't exist. Trump is ideologically aligned with the average American.

[RINO Tom]

Not sure about the whole map, but the Federalist Party would have an extremely hard time winning the EC unless Texas actually leaned to them.

I think they'd wrap up the east coast handedly along with the Pacific Northwest. At this point they need to win California and parts of the Interior Plains and Midwest.

Although Labor would have a structural advantage.

EDIT: also Labor's pro governmental solutions to climate change won't play well in certain parts of the country (including Texas).

Good point.  As an aside, minus climate change and potentially health care (and with abortion mostly handled at the state level), this is where I see the Dems (Federalist) and GOP (Labor) being in 20ish years.  Although I think it's quite likely the "large" Southern and Western states will have turned the corner by then.

Never, ever happening.

[Skill and Chance]

Not sure about the whole map, but the Federalist Party would have an extremely hard time winning the EC unless Texas actually leaned to them.

I think they'd wrap up the east coast handedly along with the Pacific Northwest. At this point they need to win California and parts of the Interior Plains and Midwest.

Although Labor would have a structural advantage.

EDIT: also Labor's pro governmental solutions to climate change won't play well in certain parts of the country (including Texas).

Good point.  As an aside, minus climate change and potentially health care (and with abortion mostly handled at the state level), this is where I see the Dems (Federalist) and GOP (Labor) being in 20ish years.  Although I think it's quite likely the "large" Southern and Western states will have turned the corner by then.

Never, ever happening.

If not, the alternative Dem strategy is to realign toward the Bernie platform.  To do that, they will have to add millions of people with at least moderately traditionalist social views to their party base.  Can you walk me through how you think that happens?  Because I really struggle to see it within the next 15 years. 

I presume that SCOTUS overturning Roe v. Wade by the early 2020's and leaving abortion to the states would be a necessary precondition.  Then some new form of labor movement could arise out of the next recession.  But what happens to the parts of the Dem base that aren't in sync with its economic agenda when the Sanders tea party comes along?  Urban Ivy League grads making 3X the median income?  Women in corporate management roles?  College professors?  Identity politics activists?  Would they run an SJW version of McMullin in protest for a couple of election cycles?   

[RINO Tom]

Not sure about the whole map, but the Federalist Party would have an extremely hard time winning the EC unless Texas actually leaned to them.

I think they'd wrap up the east coast handedly along with the Pacific Northwest. At this point they need to win California and parts of the Interior Plains and Midwest.

Although Labor would have a structural advantage.

EDIT: also Labor's pro governmental solutions to climate change won't play well in certain parts of the country (including Texas).

Good point.  As an aside, minus climate change and potentially health care (and with abortion mostly handled at the state level), this is where I see the Dems (Federalist) and GOP (Labor) being in 20ish years.  Although I think it's quite likely the "large" Southern and Western states will have turned the corner by then.

Never, ever happening.

If not, the alternative Dem strategy is to realign toward the Bernie platform.  To do that, they will have to add millions of people with at least moderately traditionalist social views to their party base.  Can you walk me through how you think that happens?  Because I really struggle to see it within the next 15 years. 

I presume that SCOTUS overturning Roe v. Wade by the early 2020's and leaving abortion to the states would be a necessary precondition.  Then some new form of labor movement could arise out of the next recession.  But what happens to the parts of the Dem base that aren't in sync with its economic agenda when the Sanders tea party comes along?  Urban Ivy League grads making 3X the median income?  Women in corporate management roles?  College professors?  Identity politics activists?  Would they run an SJW version of McMullin in protest for a couple of election cycles?   

The degree to which "Moderate" or more "affluent" Democrats aren't on board with Sanders Democrats' economic ideas is comically overrated by this site.  Rich Democrats, on average, do not vote like rich Republicans or rich independents; they support government regulation of business, they support higher taxes on THEMSELVES, they support raising the minimum wage, they support increased government spending, etc.  They tend to be rich by circumstance, like a tenured college professor, a professional who's risen the ranks of a company in a liberal field, a doctor or lawyer who benefits from the public sector, etc.  They aren't on board with economic conservatism, even if they aren't quite as far left as Bernie's folks.  Combine that with the fact that Democrats still rely on less affluent voters than Republicans (per income exit polls), minorities' economically leftist views and the DNC knows it's just never, ever going to fully embrace a Republican-lite economic policy.  It'd be political suicide.  I think things will stabilize, as there is a pretty damn high floor for rich White people with Republicans, and we're about there, IMO.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Not sure about the whole map, but the Federalist Party would have an extremely hard time winning the EC unless Texas actually leaned to them.

I think they'd wrap up the east coast handedly along with the Pacific Northwest. At this point they need to win California and parts of the Interior Plains and Midwest.

Although Labor would have a structural advantage.

EDIT: also Labor's pro governmental solutions to climate change won't play well in certain parts of the country (including Texas).

Good point.  As an aside, minus climate change and potentially health care (and with abortion mostly handled at the state level), this is where I see the Dems (Federalist) and GOP (Labor) being in 20ish years.  Although I think it's quite likely the "large" Southern and Western states will have turned the corner by then.

Never, ever happening.

If not, the alternative Dem strategy is to realign toward the Bernie platform.  To do that, they will have to add millions of people with at least moderately traditionalist social views to their party base.  Can you walk me through how you think that happens?  Because I really struggle to see it within the next 15 years.  

I presume that SCOTUS overturning Roe v. Wade by the early 2020's and leaving abortion to the states would be a necessary precondition.  Then some new form of labor movement could arise out of the next recession.  But what happens to the parts of the Dem base that aren't in sync with its economic agenda when the Sanders tea party comes along?  Urban Ivy League grads making 3X the median income?  Women in corporate management roles?  College professors?  Identity politics activists?  Would they run an SJW version of McMullin in protest for a couple of election cycles?    

The degree to which "Moderate" or more "affluent" Democrats aren't on board with Sanders Democrats' economic ideas is comically overrated by this site.  Rich Democrats, on average, do not vote like rich Republicans or rich independents; they support government regulation of business, they support higher taxes on THEMSELVES, they support raising the minimum wage, they support increased government spending, etc.  They tend to be rich by circumstance, like a tenured college professor, a professional who's risen the ranks of a company in a liberal field, a doctor or lawyer who benefits from the public sector, etc.  They aren't on board with economic conservatism, even if they aren't quite as far left as Bernie's folks.  Combine that with the fact that Democrats still rely on less affluent voters than Republicans (per income exit polls), minorities' economically leftist views and the DNC knows it's just never, ever going to fully embrace a Republican-lite economic policy.  It'd be political suicide.  I think things will stabilize, as there is a pretty damn high floor for rich White people with Republicans, and we're about there, IMO.

Yeah I agree. With the millennial generation being the future of the Democratic Party, Bernie Sanders influence over the future of the Party, and polls like this one, I don't see any reason to think that the Democrats will become the pro business Party.