Which is the more difficult challenge for Democrats?

[MT Treasurer]

Option 1 IMO. I could see 2 happening even if there is no wave (a victory in the AL Special election + Heller defeat + Flake defeat or - more likely - a victory in Utah), but I really don't see how 1 is possible in anything but a big landslide. Especially MO and IN will require a big wave.

[The Other Castro]

I don't think Option 2 happens unless Option 1 is already happening, so Option 2.

[Xing]

I know what you think McCaskill's and Donnelly's odds are , but whatever they may be, they're still better the than Democrats' odd of winning a race in Alabama, Texas, or Utah.

[MT Treasurer]

I know what you think McCaskill's and Donnelly's odds are , but whatever they may be, they're still better the than Democrats' odd of winning a race in Alabama, Texas, or Utah.

Well, if 2018 is more of a neutral year and the GOP gets top-tier candidates in all the "red" states (WV, MT, ND , IN, MO) and the Democrats are in good shape in NV and one or both of AZ/UT, I don't think this is THAT implausible. This also assumes that Moore lost the special election by 3 or so.

Utah of course would require someone like Matheson to run and a McMullin Independent candidacy or something like that.

[mieastwick]

My guess is Cruz+Flake+Heller going down is the most likely way for the Dems to pick up three Senate seats. Cruz behaved himself horribly over the course of 2016.

My gut tells me Heller and Flake have no future in 2018.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In 1964, 25 Democratic seats were up. The Democrats picked up 3 Republican seats, but lost 1
seat, California. The idea of the Democrats losing a Senate seat in California in an epic Democratic wave seems absurd today, but it happened.

[GlobeSoc]

In 1964, 25 Democratic seats were up. The Democrats picked up 3 Republican seats, but lost 1
seat, California. The idea of the Democrats losing a Senate seat in California in an epic Democratic wave seems absurd today, but it happened.

Coincidentally that is the same class up in 2018. Spooky.

[Ronnie]

Option 2 would entail a Democrat winning in Texas.  It, by default, will be harder for Dems to do that than hold all their seats.

[Heisenberg]

My guess is Cruz+Flake+Heller going down is the most likely way for the Dems to pick up three Senate seats. Cruz behaved himself horribly over the course of 2016.

My gut tells me Heller and Flake have no future in 2018.

Alabama or Utah are both more likely (smaller, plus Cruz's vulnerability is overstated and O'Rourke is WAY too liberal).

Option 2 would entail a Democrat winning in Texas.  It, by default, will be harder for Dems to do that than hold all their seats.

Or Alabama, or Utah.

[Mr. Smith]

In 1964, 25 Democratic seats were up. The Democrats picked up 3 Republican seats, but lost 1
seat, California. The idea of the Democrats losing a Senate seat in California in an epic Democratic wave seems absurd today, but it happened.

Irrelevant considering Utah voted to the left of Arizona that year (both on the Presidential level AND in Congress where they had a Democratic Senator get re-elected by flying colors)

[Young Moderate Republican]

My guess is Cruz+Flake+Heller going down is the most likely way for the Dems to pick up three Senate seats. Cruz behaved himself horribly over the course of 2016.

My gut tells me Heller and Flake have no future in 2018.

The chance of Cruz losing resembles something less than a 0% chance. Dems will hype O'Rourke like they did Wendy Davis and he will lose by 15-20 points. He's more popular here than Trump was in 2016.

[mieastwick]

34% of AL voters went for HRC and 27% of voters in Utah did. For Texas, it's 43%. Texas also has a huge yet untapped Hispanic population that is far, far larger than that of Alabama or Utah. If the Democrats are competent, they could easily register hundreds of thousands of them in a year. Likewise, a much larger portion of Texas's non-Hispanic White population has a college degree than that of Utah and Alabama. With those types of demographics, it is much more vulnerable to a 2018 upset than either Utah or Alabama is. Alabama White voters are very Trumpy. Utah voters are the most economically conservative in America. Neither Alabama or Utah is going D. Meanwhile, Fort Bend County reminds me very much of Gwinnett, Wake, and Fairfax.

[OSR stands with Israel]

In 1964, 25 Democratic seats were up. The Democrats picked up 3 Republican seats, but lost 1
seat, California. The idea of the Democrats losing a Senate seat in California in an epic Democratic wave seems absurd today, but it happened.

Coincidentally that is the same class up in 2018. Spooky.

Ironically If Hillary won 2018 would literally be her 1994 as its the same class.