WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[MT Treasurer]

Manchin still won though, and outrunning Hillary Clinton by 45 points is legitimately impressive, even if he didn't outrun her by 50 points or 55 points.

Yeah, when was the last time a blue state Republican Senator outran their last nominee by 45 points?

Susan Collins (2014): 52 points
Susan Collins (2008): 40 points
Olympia Snowe (2006): 62 points

ME is really an oddball. It’s easy to forget that Republican Senate candidates in blue states were crushed across the board in 2008 and 2014, which makes Collins' landslide victories even more impressive.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Manchin still won though, and outrunning Hillary Clinton by 45 points is legitimately impressive, even if he didn't outrun her by 50 points or 55 points.

Yeah, when was the last time a blue state Republican Senator outran their last nominee by 45 points?

Susan Collins (2014): 52 points
Susan Collins (2008): 40 points
Olympia Snowe (2006): 62 points

ME is really an oddball. It’s easy to forget that Republican Senate candidates in blue states were crushed across the board in 2008 and 2014, which makes Collins' landslide victories even more impressive.

Republicans didn’t even try in any blue state senate races in 2014 though (besides Colorado, but that was more a swing state at the time) since there were so many red state opportunities already. They were fairly successful in blue state governorships that year where they tried

[lfromnj]

I mean in 2014 she wasn't contested but 2008 was impressive, facing a congressman that represented half the state.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans didn’t even try in any blue state senate races in 2014 though (besides Colorado, but that was more a swing state at the time) since there were so many red state opportunities already. They were fairly successful in blue state governorships that year where they tried

They definitely tried in NH and MI (and were somewhat hopeful about MN at the beginning of the cycle, although that race quickly trended away from them). With the exception of CO, all of their Senate pick-ups were in states Obama lost in 2012 and/or which were trending Republican anyway (IA). It was a good result for Republicans, but hardly some red tidal wave. 

They did fairly well in blue state governorships, but gubernatorial races aren’t federal races. A blue state Republican winning a Senate race by 37 points in an Obama +15 state is nothing to scoff at just because the overall political environment was favorable for Republicans.

[Cashew]

So, what’s IceSpear's current take on this race?

Toss up. Manchin is overrated and the possibility of a last minute Morrisey surge is vastly underrated here and among the pundits.

But I realize there's no point in arguing this since Manchin won the July election and that's what truly matters to political junkies, so whatever. We'll see what happens.

If you meant WV-03, I still think it's lean/likely R. Ojeda will probably collapse once god emperor Trump endorses his opponent and all the Racist WV Hicks remember he's a member of the anti-white hate group i.e. the Democratic Party.

Damn, I forgot about this. WV is so predictable.

You once implied that you think Boomers in WV voted more on their racism more than previous generations in WV did lol.

I’m struggling to see the error in that implication

That’s saying Boomers a generation that where they grew up in an era where  racism become viewed as more and more unacceptable , and where the youngest boomers Turned 18 when the civil right act passed and 19 when the voting rights act passed cared more about racism than generations who grew up in a time where being racist was viewed as acceptable and spent a good part of their adult life when segregation was legal .

The older generations had the memory of the great depression at the back of their minds. The Boomers, while less racist did not have that same countervailing force to stop them from voting in a racist manner so of course racism would play a bigger role.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Haha

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1166395384354050048?s=20

Yep, it true

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If Don Blankenship was somehow the nominee, Capito would end up taking over 80% of the vote.