WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[Xing]

I'm not sure why people think Heitkamp is heavily favored but Manchin has no chance. I think he's much more entrenched and has more crossover appeal than Heitkamp, though Jenkins obviously won't be a pushover for him.

I never said Manchin had no chance, but I believe his crossover appeal is seriously exaggerated. Whether people like it or not, he will be linked to the national Democratic Party and Chuck Schumer, and in a state like WV that won't help him. He has also cast some very questionable votes recently and Republican groups have a lot to attack him on. Tilt R for now, but of course Manchin could win. My point is that name recognition and crossover appeal didn't save Evan Bayh either.

See, everything you said is true of Heitkamp as well, but she isn't as entrenched as him. I don't get the Bayh comparison, either, since Bayh backed out of his Senate race in 2010, and then just jumped in at the last minute in 2016. Manchin is definitely vulnerable, and I'd rate this race a Toss-Up, but I think that he has the most crossover appeal of the red state Democrats, even if that doesn't end up being enough for him to win.

[Xing]

I'm not sure why people think Heitkamp is heavily favored but Manchin has no chance. I think he's much more entrenched and has more crossover appeal than Heitkamp, though Jenkins obviously won't be a pushover for him.

I never said Manchin had no chance, but I believe his crossover appeal is seriously exaggerated. Whether people like it or not, he will be linked to the national Democratic Party and Chuck Schumer, and in a state like WV that won't help him. He has also cast some very questionable votes recently and Republican groups have a lot to attack him on. Tilt R for now, but of course Manchin could win. My point is that name recognition and crossover appeal didn't save Evan Bayh either.

See, everything you said is true of Heitkamp as well, but she isn't as entrenched as him. I don't get the Bayh comparison, either, since Bayh backed out of his Senate race in 2010, and then just jumped in at the last minute in 2016. Manchin is definitely vulnerable, and I'd rate this race a Toss-Up, but I think that he has the most crossover appeal of the red state Democrats, even if that doesn't end up being enough for him to win.

Bayh was supposedly unbeatable due to his moderate voting record and his previous elections which he won in a landslide. I mean, he was basically the de-facto incumbent in this race. You could be right about Heitkamp not being as entrenched as Manchin, but first we need to see a few polls before we know for sure whether that is the case or not - I guarantee you she's more popular than Manchin and will do better than McCaskill, Manchin and Donnelly election day. I'll eat crow if I'm wrong.

I didn't say that Manchin is unbeatable, just that he has the most potential for cross-over appeal, which is the only thing that gives him a fighting chance in WV. Also, keep in mind that most people thought Justice would lose last year because Democrats can't win statewide races in WV anymore. Well, you certainly don't shy away from bold predictions. You could end up being right, especially if Heitkamp gets a sub-par opponent, but if her opponent is competent, I definitely think that Manchin is more likely to win.

[The Other Castro]

Rep. David McKinley says he'll announce whether he's running in a week or two, but it doesn't sound like he's going to run.

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https://www.theet.com/statejournal/mckinley-says-it-s-too-early-to-announce-campaign-plans/article_aecc90e7-dd09-56f5-9bdd-8f6849c15064.html

On the other hand, AG Patrick Morrisey still looks pretty likely to run.

http://wvmetronews.com/2017/05/10/early-start-to-2018-senate-race-in-wv/

[MT Treasurer]

McKinley NOT running, will seek reelection instead

[McGovernForPrez]

Anybody hype to see Richard Ojeda fight for this seat? He's a really strong recruit so I think he could win depending on his opponent.

[BuckeyeNut]

Anybody hype to see Richard Ojeda fight for this seat? He's a really strong recruit so I think he could win depending on his opponent.

I know I am. Though, it sort of looks like he used the State Senate as a stepping stone.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Anybody hype to see Richard Ojeda fight for this seat? He's a really strong recruit so I think he could win depending on his opponent.

I know I am. Though, it sort of looks like he used the State Senate as a stepping stone.

Yeah, Ojeda seems like a great candidate!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

It will be hard to knock off Manchin in a Republican-trifecta midterm. West Virginia is a dependent state and Manchin is more in favor bringing money into the state than any Republican. Plus, it's a Medicaid expansion state and there are plenty of people who cannot afford to lose their health care.

People are tired of Manchin, but I largely agree with this. Manchin does have an image problem - a literal one. After the severe floods (my Uncle's 85 year old mother was stranded with her grandson and infant great-granddaughter for nearly an entire day on the side of a mountain) there last year, Manchin came, made sure his staffers got plenty of pictures, and then went and golfed at the Greenbrier.

Coming from a West Virginia family, I've heard this sentiment a lot. Yet Manchin does bring in a lot of badly needed bacon, and I have no idea if either opponent can take him down. I'll defer to POTUS on that one. He's our resident Mountaineer.

[McGovernForPrez]

Anybody hype to see Richard Ojeda fight for this seat? He's a really strong recruit so I think he could win depending on his opponent.

I know I am. Though, it sort of looks like he used the State Senate as a stepping stone.

Meh. He already had an incredible run in the primary in 2014. If a stepping stone is what he needed then that seems ok to me.

[Badger]

I'm not sure why people think Heitkamp is heavily favored but Manchin has no chance. I think he's much more entrenched and has more crossover appeal than Heitkamp, though Jenkins obviously won't be a pushover for him.

[MT Treasurer]

West Virginia AG stirs speculation of Senate run with 'major' Monday announcement

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Pls no.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yes, yes! I doubt Morrisey wins the primary vs Jenkins, but if he did, that would be great news for Team Manchin!

[MT Treasurer]

Yes, yes! I doubt Morrisey wins the primary vs Jenkins, but if he did, that would be great news for Team Manchin!

Totally agreed. Jenkins' district is still heavily Democrat in registration, and I guess Morrisey has more name recognition in the other two districts, especially the Eastern Panhandle. So yeah, Jenkins could be in trouble in the primary.

[windjammer]

Yes, yes! I doubt Morrisey wins the primary vs Jenkins, but if he did, that would be great news for Team Manchin!

Totally agreed. Jenkins' district is still heavily Democrat in registration, and I guess Morrisey has more name recognition in the other two districts, especially the Eastern Panhandle. So yeah, Jenkins could be in trouble in the primary.

Is it a close primary?

[SATW]

Jenkins still has my enthusiastic support. Morrissey is an HP.

[Heisenberg]

Jenkins still has my enthusiastic support. Morrissey is an HP.

This. For sure. I really like Jenkins and he is way stronger. Morrisey winning hands over the AG seat to the Democrats and can help rebuild their bench in WV. He's also a carpetbagger from New Jersey who even ran for NJ-07 in the past, while Jenkins is a native West Virginian. And Jenkins' "the Democratic Party left me" message should play really well in West Virginia.

[GlobeSoc]

Jenkins still has my enthusiastic support. Morrissey is an HP.

This. For sure. I really like Jenkins and he is way stronger. Morrisey winning hands over the AG seat to the Democrats and can help rebuild their bench in WV. He's also a carpetbagger from New Jersey who even ran for NJ-07 in the past, while Jenkins is a native West Virginian. And Jenkins' "the Democratic Party left me" message should play really well in West Virginia.

Are you referring to winning the primary or GE?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jenkins still has my enthusiastic support. Morrissey is an HP.

This. For sure. I really like Jenkins and he is way stronger. Morrisey winning hands over the AG seat to the Democrats and can help rebuild their bench in WV. He's also a carpetbagger from New Jersey who even ran for NJ-07 in the past, while Jenkins is a native West Virginian. And Jenkins' "the Democratic Party left me" message should play really well in West Virginia.

Good points. There is no doubt that Jenkins is a formidable candidate. That's why I would be ecstatic if Morrisey won the primary and faced Manchin.

[Heisenberg]

Jenkins still has my enthusiastic support. Morrissey is an HP.

This. For sure. I really like Jenkins and he is way stronger. Morrisey winning hands over the AG seat to the Democrats and can help rebuild their bench in WV. He's also a carpetbagger from New Jersey who even ran for NJ-07 in the past, while Jenkins is a native West Virginian. And Jenkins' "the Democratic Party left me" message should play really well in West Virginia.

Are you referring to winning the primary or GE?

Winning the general, unless he resigns after (hypothetically) winning the primary (which would be stupid).

Jenkins still has my enthusiastic support. Morrissey is an HP.

This. For sure. I really like Jenkins and he is way stronger. Morrisey winning hands over the AG seat to the Democrats and can help rebuild their bench in WV. He's also a carpetbagger from New Jersey who even ran for NJ-07 in the past, while Jenkins is a native West Virginian. And Jenkins' "the Democratic Party left me" message should play really well in West Virginia.

Good points. There is no doubt that Jenkins is a formidable candidate. That's why I would be ecstatic if Morrisey won the primary and faced Manchin.

The only possibility worse than Morrisey is Mooney. His carpetbagging was way worse (at least Morrisey waited a decade, established himself in West Virginia, and he never served as State Party Chair or RNC Delegate in NJ, to my knowledge). And look at these hypothetical polls. Jenkins did the best, Mooney even loses by 10 to Carte Goodwin.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jenkins still has my enthusiastic support. Morrissey is an HP.

This. For sure. I really like Jenkins and he is way stronger. Morrisey winning hands over the AG seat to the Democrats and can help rebuild their bench in WV. He's also a carpetbagger from New Jersey who even ran for NJ-07 in the past, while Jenkins is a native West Virginian. And Jenkins' "the Democratic Party left me" message should play really well in West Virginia.

Are you referring to winning the primary or GE?

Winning the general, unless he resigns after (hypothetically) winning the primary (which would be stupid).

Jenkins still has my enthusiastic support. Morrissey is an HP.

This. For sure. I really like Jenkins and he is way stronger. Morrisey winning hands over the AG seat to the Democrats and can help rebuild their bench in WV. He's also a carpetbagger from New Jersey who even ran for NJ-07 in the past, while Jenkins is a native West Virginian. And Jenkins' "the Democratic Party left me" message should play really well in West Virginia.

Good points. There is no doubt that Jenkins is a formidable candidate. That's why I would be ecstatic if Morrisey won the primary and faced Manchin.

The only possibility worse than Morrisey is Mooney. His carpetbagging was way worse (at least Morrisey waited a decade, established himself in West Virginia, and he never served as State Party Chair or RNC Delegate in NJ, to my knowledge). And look at these hypothetical polls. Jenkins did the best, Mooney even loses by 10 to Carte Goodwin.

Yeah, they need to deport that conniving beaver either to the moon or back to Mexico.

[MT Treasurer]

Morrisey is in. Sad!

[Heisenberg]

Yeah, they need to deport that conniving beaver either to the moon or back to Mexico.

Who, Mooney? You mean back to Maryland, right?

Morrisey is in. Sad!

Sad, but expected. I hope Jenkins destroys him in the primary.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Morrisey is in. Sad!

YEEEEEEE!

[I’m not Stu]

WV AG Patrick Morrisey has just decided to run. How would he match up against Manchin if Jenkins loses the Primary?

[Skunk]

If Morrisey wins the primary, congratulations to Manchin for winning another term.