WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin
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  WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin
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Author Topic: WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin  (Read 139260 times)
heatcharger
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« Reply #75 on: July 16, 2017, 05:50:58 PM »

Some Sanders town hall in WV convinced them that it's a True Progressive State.

They're not the brightest bunch politically.

This. I prefer Berniecrats waste their time and effort on something less self-destructive, such as trying to take out Feinstein.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #76 on: July 16, 2017, 06:15:50 PM »

If the Justice Democrats wanted to actually be effective, they would go run in primaries against all the IDC members in NY. But that's not sexy enough for them, so they go and run these candidates with little credibility in primaries against people that they can't possibly beat in the hopes of facing off against Republicans that will demolish them. What they do shows me that they are not in the interest of actually electing people to advance their stated causes, and are a waste of mine and anyone else's attention.
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Coraxion
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« Reply #77 on: July 16, 2017, 06:59:58 PM »

I don't think they actually think she can win. They're just running her to be assholes. If we don't win much in 2018 and/or 2020, it'll be these party purists' fault, just like it was their fault Clinton lost. The far-left of the Democratic party bothers me. They seem to dislike "the establishment" more than their real enemies, the GOP.
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #78 on: July 16, 2017, 07:13:20 PM »

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Only socially. Economically, it's one of the least conservative states, being a New Deal Democrat stronghold. However, WV does have the coal factor, which makes it special.
True, but that's historically speaking. The GOP has gotten increasingly more comfortable with coal miners, and combined with "we're gonna put a lot of coal miners out of business," West Virginia is becoming a lost cause for the Democrats.
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So Swearengin is an SJW, huh? Are you also implying that Justice Dems are SJWs, since they're the ones running Swearengin?
Yes.
This is honestly hilarious. First people say that Berniecrats are "brocialists" or "sexist Bernie Bros", the candidate of the young straight white male Redditor. Then people say that they're SJWs. I mean, at least be consistent in your attacks.

I've always considered Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, etc. to be SJWs. So I've been pretty consistent.
Just to be clear, I don't think Swearengin can beat Manchin in a primary, at least at this stage.

I made a Senate hit-list that Justice Dems should follow. This senate class has a lot of Third Way Dems, and I think if they played their cards right, they could significantly alter the course of the Democratic Party. List is in priority:
1. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) - insanely corrupt and quite unpopular, even though NJ is a solid Clinton state, I think many Clinton voters will vote for a strong Berniecrat over Menendez in a primary.
Nope, New Jersey still has suburban values. Berniecrats are virtually non-existent here.
2. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) - A New Democrat centrist who opposed the public option, in a state that is notoriously liberal and went strongly for Sanders. "But the WA primary" - eh, not really sufficient evidence, considering that it had absolutely zero weight whatsoever.
Reasonable target.
3. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) - One of the Queens of neoliberalism. This one is quite a bit tougher, since CA is so large, but there's a lot of grassroots energy down in CA, so maybe it could happen.
Reasonable target.
4. Tom Carper (D-DE) - Served on the DLC. Delaware is a small, solidly blue state, but it has a history of electing moderates. Easily the toughest one.
Same situation as New Jersey. Also I could see Joe Biden coming out to support Carper.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #79 on: July 16, 2017, 07:20:38 PM »

Because they're insane political illiterates who spend all their time in an activist-heavy ideological bubble, most likely on a place like Tumblr or lefty Reddit.

See also: the Breitbart gang who thought Paul nehlen could come within spitting distance of Speaker Ryan last summer
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #80 on: July 16, 2017, 07:21:51 PM »

Ideological Purity and Blind Lunacy defines this group, Safe R if she were nominated.
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Deblano
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« Reply #81 on: July 16, 2017, 07:31:07 PM »

I do think that there is potential for a left-wing populist (not even so much a Bernie-crat, but maybe more of a Webb-style populist) to be formidable in West Virginia, so I wouldn't exactly write her off under the guise of "muh bernie bros!!!!!"
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KingSweden
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« Reply #82 on: July 16, 2017, 07:53:02 PM »

I do think that there is potential for a left-wing populist (not even so much a Bernie-crat, but maybe more of a Webb-style populist) to be formidable in West Virginia, so I wouldn't exactly write her off under the guise of "muh bernie bros!!!!!"

I don't disagree with this premise, though I haven't seen anything to suggest Justice Dems are hankering for a Jim Webb Democrat
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VPH
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« Reply #83 on: July 16, 2017, 07:56:46 PM »

They're aligned with Brand New Congress, which is even more foolishly idealistic. What makes them think any of their GOP candidates can win on a left wing platform? Mistake number one is primarying randomly. Mistake number two is tying every candidate to one platform.
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jfern
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« Reply #84 on: July 16, 2017, 07:57:32 PM »

Why do Justice Dems think any of their candidates can win?

So we should just not run anyone anywhere and blindly vote for some neoliberals that we strongly oppose? Hell no!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #85 on: July 16, 2017, 08:37:27 PM »

If Justice somehow loses in the primary, how much you wanna bet he starts up "Democrats for Jenkins"  Tongue

If Swearingen pulls off the unthinkable and beats Manchin in the primaries, I will literally be the first democrat to switch over for Jenkins after the primaries. These people think that just cause Bernie managed to cream Clinton in the primaries here last year, that they are some sort of powerful and reckoning machine in the state. Meanwhile, many of these voters just held their noses and voted for him to block hillary, with a lot of people who would otherwise vote republican join in the democratic primaries just to try to block her.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #86 on: July 16, 2017, 08:48:52 PM »

I don't think they actually think she can win. They're just running her to be assholes. If we don't win much in 2018 and/or 2020, it'll be these party purists' fault, just like it was their fault Clinton lost. The far-left of the Democratic party bothers me. They seem to dislike "the establishment" more than their real enemies, the GOP.

The GOP nearly gave us Montana, Kansas, and Georgia [took them unifying and being spendy hypocrites to reverse-course in the run-off] in the Special Elections. They almost lost Missouri in the Senate, lost Illinois, and they lost North Carolina's gubernatorial

The Establishment decided Wisconsin and Michigan were perfectly fine [until the last week], Philly would suffice in Pennsylvania, and that Michelle was the best surrogate in Arizona. They decided against Tim Ryan and Ellison despite both of them clearly attracting lots of attention in favor of keeping the most defined Albatross and some guy.

...Looking at that, you can't blame them. The GOP keep giving, and The Establishment keep letting the GOP off.

Oh, and also, the Establishment would've thrown Bernie under the bus and let Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado go to Trump, so please enough with the entitled act. Don't whine about party purity, when your wing whines about being the only adults in the room, when clearly the policies aren't selling.

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jfern
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« Reply #87 on: July 16, 2017, 08:51:25 PM »

If Justice somehow loses in the primary, how much you wanna bet he starts up "Democrats for Jenkins"  Tongue

If Swearingen pulls off the unthinkable and beats Manchin in the primaries, I will literally be the first democrat to switch over for Jenkins after the primaries. These people think that just cause Bernie managed to cream Clinton in the primaries here last year, that they are some sort of powerful and reckoning machine in the state. Meanwhile, many of these voters just held their noses and voted for him to block hillary, with a lot of people who would otherwise vote republican join in the democratic primaries just to try to block her.

There are a lot of West Virginians who used to vote reliably Democratic (and some who even voted for Obama twice) who voted for Trump, thanks to people like you.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #88 on: July 16, 2017, 08:56:20 PM »

Slightly OT, but it's hard for me to understand why someone would move to West Virginia (as Morrisey did).
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #89 on: July 16, 2017, 09:42:19 PM »

If Justice somehow loses in the primary, how much you wanna bet he starts up "Democrats for Jenkins"  Tongue

If Swearingen pulls off the unthinkable and beats Manchin in the primaries, I will literally be the first democrat to switch over for Jenkins after the primaries. These people think that just cause Bernie managed to cream Clinton in the primaries here last year, that they are some sort of powerful and reckoning machine in the state. Meanwhile, many of these voters just held their noses and voted for him to block hillary, with a lot of people who would otherwise vote republican join in the democratic primaries just to try to block her.

There are a lot of West Virginians who used to vote reliably Democratic (and some who even voted for Obama twice) who voted for Trump, thanks to people like you.

Yes, I'm sure it's because of people like me, not Clinton being a horrible fit for the state, or how the democratic party is morphing in so many different ways into something that is hardly recognizable or relatable anymore for many blue collar workers that have come upon hard times...  

If anything, people like me would do substantially better in West Virginia than people like you.
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Deblano
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« Reply #90 on: July 16, 2017, 09:44:37 PM »

I don't think they actually think she can win. They're just running her to be assholes. If we don't win much in 2018 and/or 2020, it'll be these party purists' fault, just like it was their fault Clinton lost. The far-left of the Democratic party bothers me. They seem to dislike "the establishment" more than their real enemies, the GOP.

The GOP nearly gave us Montana, Kansas, and Georgia [took them unifying and being spendy hypocrites to reverse-course in the run-off] in the Special Elections. They almost lost Missouri in the Senate, lost Illinois, and they lost North Carolina's gubernatorial

The Establishment decided Wisconsin and Michigan were perfectly fine [until the last week], Philly would suffice in Pennsylvania, and that Michelle was the best surrogate in Arizona. They decided against Tim Ryan and Ellison despite both of them clearly attracting lots of attention in favor of keeping the most defined Albatross and some guy.

...Looking at that, you can't blame them. The GOP keep giving, and The Establishment keep letting the GOP off.

Oh, and also, the Establishment would've thrown Bernie under the bus and let Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado go to Trump, so please enough with the entitled act. Don't whine about party purity, when your wing whines about being the only adults in the room, when clearly the policies aren't selling.



This.

Despite being a Libertarian-leaning centrist (or a really moderate Republican), I somewhat sympathize with the Bernie wing at this rate considering how the Democratic establishment won't stop b***hing about everything under the sun since their coronated leader lost. The Dem Establishment has no high ground, considering how they lost to Trump of all people. A whopping amount of Bernie voters voted for Hillary.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #91 on: July 16, 2017, 09:54:33 PM »

Why are centrists so booty-blasted over a weak little primary challenge?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #92 on: July 16, 2017, 10:00:40 PM »

Why are centrists so booty-blasted over a weak little primary challenge?

Imagine a little mosquito running around a room constantly biting you. It does not hurt very much, but it is annoying as heck. And that mosquito has an invincible forcefield around it for the next few months, and you can't do anything about it in the meanwhile, but you are constantly counting down the days till that force field comes down, and then after a few claps, you can finally get rid of that little nuisance.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #93 on: July 16, 2017, 10:12:30 PM »

The Bernie Bros probably don't know what they're doing in this case. Manchin is a popular incumbent Democrat who doesn't act like a Republican-lite. Yes, he is probably the most socially conservative member of the Democratic Caucus, but he still is a reliable Dem vote on progressive economic policies. And it doesn't matter what Bernie Bros outside of West Virginia think; he's not their senator.

All that being said, In the unlikely event that Swearengin does pull off a win, she'd almost certainly be an underdog against Jenkins. Coal is too deeply ingrained into the culture of West Virginia for an anti-coal candidate to win against a pro-coal one.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #94 on: July 16, 2017, 10:14:10 PM »

The Bernie Bros probably don't know what they're doing in this case. Manchin is a popular incumbent Democrat who doesn't act like a Republican-lite. Yes, he is probably the most socially conservative member of the Democratic Caucus, but he still is a reliable Dem vote on progressive economic policies. And it doesn't matter what Bernie Bros outside of West Virginia think; he's not their senator.

All that being said, In the unlikely event that Swearengin does pull off a win, she'd almost certainly be an underdog against Jenkins. Coal is too deeply ingrained into the culture of West Virginia for an anti-coal candidate to win against a pro-coal one.

Very pragmatic, couldn't have said it better!
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Coraxion
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« Reply #95 on: July 16, 2017, 10:21:54 PM »

I don't think they actually think she can win. They're just running her to be assholes. If we don't win much in 2018 and/or 2020, it'll be these party purists' fault, just like it was their fault Clinton lost. The far-left of the Democratic party bothers me. They seem to dislike "the establishment" more than their real enemies, the GOP.
The Establishment decided Wisconsin and Michigan were perfectly fine [until the last week]
Everyone and their mother thought Clinton had WI and MI in the bag.
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It wasn't an unreasonable assumption that Philly and its suburbs plus Pittsburgh and some 30% of the vote elsewhere would suffice when you look at the populations of the Philly and Pittsburgh metro areas.
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I don't really know what that has to do with anything.
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Pelosi is a master legislator. On the latter, Ellison is a Muslim. I don't have anything against Muslims, but a lot of people do. People would scream bloody murder.
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No.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #96 on: July 17, 2017, 12:20:58 AM »

Does WV have primary runoffs?
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Miles
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« Reply #97 on: July 17, 2017, 12:30:10 AM »

^ No; for example, Mooney won his first primary with 36%.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #98 on: July 17, 2017, 12:49:22 AM »

Might any spoilers prevent Jenkins from winning the GOP primary?
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #99 on: July 17, 2017, 01:44:44 AM »

Slightly OT, but it's hard for me to understand why someone would move to West Virginia (as Morrisey did).

It's *really * pretty country, with great food and great culture. The northeastern portion forms the most livable part of the DC Metro by far. If my life/employment leads me to WV it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world at all.
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