Trump vs. Clinton with the Economy of 2008
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  Trump vs. Clinton with the Economy of 2008
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Author Topic: Trump vs. Clinton with the Economy of 2008  (Read 580 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: May 20, 2017, 03:29:07 PM »
« edited: May 20, 2017, 03:32:43 PM by Skill and Chance »

How would this have looked?  Would Trump have consistently led in the national polls after 9/15?  I am thinking something like this?



Trump/Pence 342 EV 51.2%
Clinton/Kaine 196 EV 45.7%

VA is Clinton by <0.5% and NM is Trump by <0.5% after recounts in both states. At least 20% of all votes in VT are Sanders write-ins.  My sense is that Trump's PV ceiling would be even lower than Obama's.  Thoughts?
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2017, 03:34:11 PM »

I would give Trump VA and all of Maine. He lost Maine by 3 points, and although VA is now leaning dem due to NOVA, a financial crisis would have tilted the affluent suburban voters back to the GOP.
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JoshPA
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« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2017, 04:01:40 PM »

Tough question considering trump wasnt like bush or mccain.
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Beet
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« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2017, 04:44:21 PM »



Trump wins the PV by the same amount Clinton did IRL.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #4 on: May 20, 2017, 04:51:39 PM »

People saw "business" as the problem.  A lot of folks can't tell the difference between Trump and "Wall Street" or "Bankers".  
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: May 20, 2017, 05:00:50 PM »

People saw "business" as the problem.  A lot of folks can't tell the difference between Trump and "Wall Street" or "Bankers".  

True.  In 1896, that was enough for William Jennings Bryan to come close but not to win.  Besides, it was ambiguous to most voters who was the candidate of "big business."  LOL at those who still have Clinton winning the PV under this scenario or Trump winning it by less than Bush 2004.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #6 on: May 20, 2017, 06:22:23 PM »
« Edited: May 22, 2017, 01:29:44 AM by Arbitrage1980 »

The only states that miiiight have flipped in this scenario are MN and ME. The country is way too polarized to elect someone like Trump in such a landslide, even with an awful economy. No way he wins the PV or cracks 60% in Montana, especially with his awful campaign.

VA voting for someone like Trump is about as likely as pigs starting to fly.

Trump lost VA by 5.3% despite a terribly run campaign, saying outlandish things, outspent 2:1, access hollywood tapes, lousy debates, and not even contesting the state. Yeah, with a financial crisis, Trump would have been quite competitive. He most likely would have won Loudoun and Prince William and improved in Fairfax.
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