Locally, MO votes for Democrats. However, as a Veep Presidential candidate, he can help carry MO. Otherwise, Dems have 266 electors v. GOP 235, with either Iowa, Virginia or Ohio will get them the WH.
On the local level, they are slightly less hostile to democrats, but not entirely. The GOP have a supermajority trifecta in the state, also holding all statewide offices except the state auditor, (who was appointed by Jay Nixon, and mot even elected), and their class 1 Senate seat held by McCaskill. Yes, some margins are closer, and the occasional democrat emerges victorious, but make no mistake, these days Missouri overall is a ruby red state. Also, if it's not too much trouble to ask, I would like to see your map that you are basing your projections on, since I don't feel too confident about having 266 electors when we had dozens less last year. We can't take anything for granted, especially when we've already seen them taken away from us. In reality, we have about 203 base electors that we can count on basically no matter what which are HI, OR, WA, CA, NM, VA, IL, DC, MD, DE, RI, MA, CT, NY, VT, 3 of Maine's 4, and NJ.