WV SEN 2018: Jenkins loses GOP primary, how vulnerable would Manchin be?

[I’m not Stu]

If Jenkins loses the GOP primary due to a crowded field of candidates siphoning votes from him, would Manchin likely win?

[MAINEiac4434]

If Jenkins loses the GOP primary due to a crowded field of candidates siphoning votes from him, would Manchin likely win?

Jenkins is the strongest WVGOP candidate, so I think it helps Manchin's chances if Jenkins loses a primary. He won't lose a primary, though.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Manchin is losing in the primary anyways.

[I’m not Stu]

Manchin is losing in the primary anyways.

Manchin will easily win the Democratic primary.

[swf541]

Manchin is losing in the primary anyways.

Manchin will easily win the Democratic primary.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Manchin does what he can when he can and that's really all you can ask, he's a politician with a very tough job.  His support for gun control legislation took real courage.  He's also been a strong opponent of efforts to repeal Obamacare.  The idea that Manchin's some sort of DINO is laughable, to say the least.  He didn't have to take a leading role in the gun control debate after Newtown, but he did because the country needs universal background checks (among other things).  That's the sort of courage that the Democratic Party could use more of, but the man can't win if he runs as a far-left bomb thrower.  We'll have his vote when we need it and this feeble attempt to primary Manchin doesn't even rise to the level of bargain basement tea party antics.  I'd also add that Pritt and Manchin are political enemies for reasons dating back to Pritt's failed gubernatorial campaign in the 90s.  If she's involved, that's what it's about, not ideologly.

[Figueira]

Depends on who he loses it to I guess. But it would be good for Manchin.

And yeah, conservatives still dominate the Democratic primaries in WV. No way Manchin loses.

[Xing]

Manchin is losing in the primary anyways.

That's adorable.

I'd say that this race is a Toss-Up with Jenkins, Tilt D with someone else.

[GlobeSoc]

If Jenkins loses the GOP primary due to a crowded field of candidates siphoning votes from him, would Manchin likely win?

Jenkins is the strongest WVGOP candidate, so I think it helps Manchin's chances if Jenkins loses a primary. He won't lose a primary, though.

[Cynthia]

Manchin is losing in the primary anyways.

Manchin will easily win the Democratic primary.

Lean D with Jenkins, Likely D without.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

This race still Leans D as far as I'm concerned unless Manchin retires or loses his primary or we see a string of polls with the Republican in the lead after the primary.

[SATW]

Is any other (serious) Republican even going to run?

I think if Jenkins loses to someone like Pat Morrissey than Manchin will be getting the shot glasses ready (assuming he wins his own primary).

But, if Jenkins isn't the nominee, I'll be backing Manchin. I like both, but I like Jenkins more.

[TheSaint250]

Is Jenkins really that strong of a candidate? If so, why?  Manchin seems to be guaranteed to win in 2018.

I just unfamiliar with him.

[SATW]

Is Jenkins really that strong of a candidate? If so, why?  Manchin seems to be guaranteed to win in 2018.

I just unfamiliar with him.

Jenkins represents WV-03 which was historically democrat, until he won it. He defeated a 30+ year incumbent in that seat and is one of the few party switchers (Jenkins was a dem until 2012) to make a name for himself in recent years without suffering some losses along the way.

[Figueira]

Manchin is losing in the primary anyways.

Manchin will easily win the Democratic primary.

*Cough cough*
In my opinion Manchin is going to lose and he brought this on himself  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5-wDPfm8jU

You realize that a significant portion of Sanders primary voters in West Virginia said they would vote for Trump over Sanders? Same with Clinton voters.

Also, I am a Sanders voter, and I would vote for Manchin in this primary without hesitation.

[Canis]

Manchin is losing in the primary anyways.

Manchin will easily win the Democratic primary.

*Cough cough*
In my opinion Manchin is going to lose and he brought this on himself  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5-wDPfm8jU

You realize that a significant portion of Sanders primary voters in West Virginia said they would vote for Trump over Sanders? Same with Clinton voters.

Also, I am a Sanders voter, and I would vote for Manchin in this primary without hesitation.

Can you provide some proof of this?

[Adam Griffin]

Can you provide some proof of this?

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/wv/Dem - Second page has the crosstabs for the "who are you voting for in November?" question.

Y'all just don't get it.

Tons 👏 of Bernie voters 👏 in WV 👏 protest 👏 voted 👏 for him.

I'm not painting any other picture than what is fair, and I'm certainly not using "isolated examples: 40 percent of the Democratic primary electorate always planned on voting for Trump. Of the remaining sixty percent or so, 35 percent legitimately supported Sanders and 25 percent legitimately supported Clinton. The overall group of Trump supporters was the plurality among those three groups, and 25% of all WV Democratic primary voters were Trump supporters who voted Bernie despite never supporting him.

They didn't vote for him because they liked him or wanted to see him as President: they voted for him because he wasn't Hillary Clinton - just like a huge portion of the love for Clinton there in the 2008 primary was fueled by her not being Blacky McBlackface.

They are conservatives who are registered Democrats because the Democratic Party has and still does rule WV local politics with an iron fist: they have closed primaries and if you want any say whatsoever over who ultimately runs your local and state politics, you register as a Democrat. This stuff isn't hard: a majority of registered voters in WV are registered Democrats but WV hasn't given a majority of its votes to a [presidential GE] Democrat since 1996; in the past four elections, it [the margin] hasn't even been in the single-digits.

It's not an outlier, it's not an exception: the difference between the picture you and others are trying to paint versus what is the reality is the difference between a solidly-progressive state and a heavily-conservative one; the difference between a legitimate Sanders rout (in both primary and general) and a victory where the primary's margin was fueled solely by protest voting.

[JerryArkansas]

Can you provide some proof of this?

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/wv/Dem - Second page has the crosstabs for the "who are you voting for in November?" question.

Y'all just don't get it.

Tons 👏 of Bernie voters 👏 in WV 👏 protest 👏 voted 👏 for him.

I'm not painting any other picture than what is fair, and I'm certainly not using "isolated examples: 40 percent of the Democratic primary electorate always planned on voting for Trump. Of the remaining sixty percent or so, 35 percent legitimately supported Sanders and 25 percent legitimately supported Clinton. The overall group of Trump supporters was the plurality among those three groups, and 25% of all WV Democratic primary voters were Trump supporters who voted Bernie despite never supporting him.

They didn't vote for him because they liked him or wanted to see him as President: they voted for him because he wasn't Hillary Clinton - just like a huge portion of the love for Clinton there in the 2008 primary was fueled by her not being Blacky McBlackface.

They are conservatives who are registered Democrats because the Democratic Party has and still does rule WV local politics with an iron fist: they have closed primaries and if you want any say whatsoever over who ultimately runs your local and state politics, you register as a Democrat. This stuff isn't hard: a majority of registered voters in WV are registered Democrats but WV hasn't given a majority of its votes to a [presidential GE] Democrat since 1996; in the past four elections, it [the margin] hasn't even been in the single-digits.

It's not an outlier, it's not an exception: the difference between the picture you and others are trying to paint versus what is the reality is the difference between a solidly-progressive state and a heavily-conservative one; the difference between a legitimate Sanders rout (in both primary and general) and a victory where the primary's margin was fueled solely by protest voting.

And before Griffin is accused of being a Clinton hack by the posters above, just remember he was an actual delegate for Sanders at the Convention last year, unlike you guys.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ I mean, this is a state where 40% of the Democratic primary voters in 2012 voted for a literal convict sitting in federal prison over the sitting Democratic President. It truly has always bothered me how there are people who are perplexed by the notion of registered Democrats in WV protest-voting.  


If Manchin were to lose the Democratic primary somehow, then the only way it'd happen is if scores of registered conservative Democrats decided they no longer wanted Manchin at all, threw a wrench into things, and protest-voted en masse for his opponent knowing it'd bolster the GOP candidate's chances. That combined with the self-ascribed "progressive vote" in WV might be enough to oust him in the primary, but short of that happening, it ain't happenin'.

[JerryArkansas]

^^^ I mean, this is a state where 40% of the Democratic primary voters in 2012 voted for a literal convict sitting in federal prison over the sitting Democratic President. It truly has always bothered me how there are people who are perplexed by the notion of registered Democrats in WV protest-voting. 

It goes back to the notion that many have which states most people supported him because they liked his policy positions when in fact it seems to be that at least a large section of it was based on the fact that he was not Hillary Clinton.  We saw that here in West Virginia, Oklahoma, Kentucky, and several other areas of the country.  If he had not run, that would likely have gone to someone else, maybe even Webb.  That voting block was always going to exist in the primary season, even if some of us overlooked it going into it.

[MT Treasurer]

Considering that the nominee would likely be Patrick Morrisey in this scenario, probably not very much.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin is losing in the primary anyways.

Nice try, but it's a little past April Fools.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Manchin is losing in the primary anyways.

And yet you called another poster an "idiot" today.