AMA

[Technocracy Timmy]

Hello TD. Big fan of your work.

1. What happens if the Democrats squeak by with a presidential victory in 2020? How would a 2020's Democratic realignment proceed in that case?

2. How accurate would you say this analysis is?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Thank you for the great answers TD!

One more question. Why do you think is is that the majority coalition Party usually has unpopular Presidents following the first minority coalition President?

In the Lincoln era, this would've been after the first minority coalition President Grover Cleveland (Democrat) was succeeded by Benjamin Harrison who not only lost the popular vote but became a one term President due to his unpopularity.

In the FDR era, this was JFK who may have stolen the election in Illinois and Texas and didn't win a majority of the vote (although did win the plurality). However, he was assassinated and we had LBJ who couldn't run for a second term due to his unpopularity with Vietnam and if JFK had lived he probably would've suffered the same fate as Johnson did and been very unpopular in 1968 with the Vietnam war.

In the Reagan era, we had Bush who didn't win the popular vote and may have stolen Florida similar to 1960. He also left office highly unpopular.

What do you think causes this? It seems like these men should've usurped the mantel of their majority coalitions and been successful in office but all three of them squandered it.

[Technocracy Timmy]

This is what I love about TD. He is always willing to take the time to type out very thorough explanations for often good, wholesome theories.

Edit: In response to #1 - is it possible for them to get elected as a minority coalition president, but sometime during their term, for the electorate to fundamentally shift, and end up with them winning reelection by a large margin? It seems like we are coming awfully close to the official end of the Reagan era, and the electorate is already beginning to fill up with heavily Democratic voters, it seems like such a scenario might at least be possible, no?

I'm not sure we're that close to the end of the Reagan era. The GOP did win the House popular vote last year (something Trump wasn't able to do) and the Demcratic Party has largely been riding on Onama's coattails from 2008-2016 given how they performed worse when he wasn't on the ballot in 2010, 2014, and 2016. Millennials at the moment are still choosing to live in cities and their civic participation is still not as high as it was in 2008. Baby boomers are such a large generation and will live longer than the generations before them. I don't envision 2020 being the right time for a large generational transfer of power. So far there's nobody in the Democratic bench that I think could successfully realign the country in 2020.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Great insight as usual TD.

What do you think the general demographic breakdown for the first minority coalition Republican President in 2032 will look like? By then the electorate will be only about 60% nonhispanic white in 2032.

I'd guess the Republican candidate will take about 20% of African Americans, 40% of Hispanics, and likely win or split the Asian vote. But maybe you're seeing a different breakdown that I am on that front.

[Technocracy Timmy]

TD, with those numbers among minorities and that strategy in mind (courting socially liberal, fiscally conservative voters) I could see the GOP taking not only the PNW in 2040ish but also California by a few percentage points.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Awesome write up!

Yeah Trump is the culmination of the decades long southern strategy. The racial and social issues of the GOP are toxic here. It's amazing that they actually net lost votes over the years. By 2040 the GOP will have most likely changed quite radically when it comes to social issues and race so they should be able to make California competitive.

They'd have to get the numbers you mentioned nationally among minorities in California. Just as importantly their pragmatic technocratic northern strategy of courting fiscally centrist/conservative will prove to be surprisingly advantageous in California. Courting socially liberal, fiscally conservative/centrist voters will make them very strong in Silicon Valley and the northern suburbs. Orange County and San Diego county should also shore up a lot of support. Combine that with their numbers among minorities and they should be able to crack 50%.

[Technocracy Timmy]

If Hillary won, how do you think this would have affected your theory (Or whatever you want to call it)?

In a weird way I'm happy she didn't win. The backlash in the 2018 congressional, senate, and state races combined with a 2020 victory for them would've put the Republican Party in a state of dominance not seen the 1920's.

[Technocracy Timmy]

That was shockingly accurate, minus the part about Asian voters.

What would you reassess in your analysis in regards of Asian voters TD?

[Technocracy Timmy]

I see. It's gonna be interesting to see if Pence can win the popular vote in 2020. I still think he's favored to win the election but (as was the case even in your timeline) he barely edged out the popular vote in 2020. If he doesn't win the popular vote because he isn't quite able to close the gap with Hispanics and Asians but wins the EC then it's gonna be interesting to see how that plays out from 2021-2025. I could definitely envision the Democratic platform in 2024 addressing the NPVIC.

A follow up question, what is the geographic breakdown (in regards to rural, suburban, and urban areas) of the GOP coalition in 2040? I know that they make inroads in Democratic dominated urban centers, but how's their performance in the suburbs and rural areas of the country in 2040?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Looking at the recent congressional data that Virginia pointed out in your timeline thread TD, which scenario do you think is more likely to happen?


1. 2020 Democratic realignment. Margin of victory is similar to 1980 (about +9ish popular vote) but they also have a Democratic trifecta.

Or

2. Democrats win narrowly in 2020, GOP wins in 2024 (by either a close or solid margin), then the Democrats realign in 2028.


Honestly I just see it being a very tough sell even if it's Pence for the GOP to win in 2020. At the same time though I don't get the sense that the Reagan era is complete in 40 years so I can't imagine 2020 being a realignment year either. So scenario number 2 seems more plausible to me.