States that love and hate incumbents

[PragmaticPopulist]

I've noticed that some states in presidential elections either always swing away or toward the incumbent president's party.

The best example of a state that hates incumbents is Montana. It has swung towards the party out of power in every election since 1976. The next best example after that looks to be South Dakota, which swung away from the incumbent party in every election since 1964 except for 1996, which was probably due to Perot drop-off from 1992, when he got 21.8% statewide.

The states that seem to love incumbents the most are New Jersey and Hawaii, though only when an incumbent president is running for reelection. Both have swung towards the incumbent President since 1992. However, this pattern might be broken in 2020, since Christie has probably destroyed the NJ GOP for a few cycles, and Trump is toxic there. I'm not sure about Hawaii.

[PoliticalShelter]

North Carolina is another state that has developed a somewhat recent hatred of the incumbent party having swung away from the incumbent party from every election since 1988.

[BaldEagle1991]

Hawaii is so far the most pro-incumbent state.

Texas and Montana are the most anti-incumbent states.

[Kingpoleon]

North Carolina's pretty anti-incumbent.

[Jeppe]

Definitely Hawaii. If I recall correctly, that's the only place where Trump's approval rating is higher than his 2016 vote share.

[Bidenworth2020]

NJ takes the cake for hating incumbents