Which states do you suspect will never vote Democratic or Republican again....
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  Which states do you suspect will never vote Democratic or Republican again....
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Author Topic: Which states do you suspect will never vote Democratic or Republican again....  (Read 7311 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #25 on: June 04, 2017, 12:46:42 AM »



Like I said WI, PA and MI will go back Democratic in 2020 as the 279 blue wall is back with Cory Booker as the nominee

Booker is the one Democrat I can see losing one, two, or all of those states. He's too much of a Neo Liberal economically. The Democrats need a populist to swing those states, and with Trump really not governing as a populist thus far, a Populist Democrat can easily win those three states and beat him.

No, he won't he won his state races across all races in NJ overwhelming. If the GOP wants to underestimate him, go ahead.
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dw93
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« Reply #26 on: June 04, 2017, 01:37:20 AM »

 


Like I said WI, PA and MI will go back Democratic in 2020 as the 279 blue wall is back with Cory Booker as the nominee

Booker is the one Democrat I can see losing one, two, or all of those states. He's too much of a Neo Liberal economically. The Democrats need a populist to swing those states, and with Trump really not governing as a populist thus far, a Populist Democrat can easily win those three states and beat him.

No, he won't he won his state races across all races in NJ overwhelming. If the GOP wants to underestimate him, go ahead.

First of all, I'm not a Republican. I voted Sanders in the primaries and Hillary in the General and I learned not to underestimate any Presidential Candidate after Donald Trump was elected President. With that said,  NJ isn't Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. Another issue Booker is going to run into is all the money he took from the pharmaceutical industry and his pushing charter schools with Betsy Devos when he was Mayor of Newark. I'm not saying he can't win, but he can also lose and we Democrats need to be careful of who we nominate in 2020.
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« Reply #27 on: June 07, 2017, 07:34:16 PM »

DC (not a state obviously) is the only one I'd bet the house on. The highest Republican % *ever* was Nixon's 22% in 1972, and that was when Nixon won by 23% nationally in a less polarised era. The only way it would ever vote Republican is if that candidate were unopposed, or there was a complete switching of the party platforms.

I think every state has at least a 10% chance of voting for either party at least once in the next 50 years. That did, in fact, happen from 1964 to 1984. It's by no means guaranteed to happen again, but 50 years is a long enough time I think there's a decent chance of it.


Nope Arizona went straight GOP from 1948 to 1996
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TML
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« Reply #28 on: June 07, 2017, 10:11:32 PM »

By my personal calculations, even if we were to apply the largest PV margin in history (1924) to the 2016 election, DC will stay D, while NE-03 will stay R. These are the two regions where I can predict with near absolute certainty which party they will stick with.
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Paul Weller
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« Reply #29 on: June 18, 2017, 12:24:45 PM »

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« Reply #30 on: June 18, 2017, 12:33:44 PM »

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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #31 on: June 18, 2017, 09:49:56 PM »

How does everyone seem to think DC will never go Republican and Wyoming will never go to the Democrat? What if there are major realignments where the parties look completely different?
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TexArkana
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« Reply #32 on: June 22, 2017, 02:32:48 PM »

The only states I'm reasonably sure will never vote for the opposite part again (at least in my lifetime) are Wyoming and DC (though it isn't a state), however, if there is a major realignment they could flip for sure.
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HomestarSB9
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« Reply #33 on: June 26, 2017, 03:00:09 PM »

With the current alignment, I see it going like this.
Every New England state (except New Hampshire, Maine CD2 and maybe Connecticut.)
New York
Maryland
Washington D.C.
West Virginia
Alabama (possibly???)
Nebraska CD3
Kansas
Utah
Wyoming
Idaho
Washington
Hawaii
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« Reply #34 on: June 27, 2017, 09:56:34 AM »

Arkansas, Alabama, and West Virginia and D.C.
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AN63093
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« Reply #35 on: July 31, 2017, 10:36:03 PM »

Sort of an old bump, I know, but it's a fun thread.

Assuming my remaining lifetime is about 45 years or so, give or take, there are very few states, perhaps zero, that I'd be willing to bet would never flip, as in 100% certainty.  On the other hand, I could see several flipping in the case of a realignment, albeit it could take years or even decades for that process to completely unfold.

Still though, the only states that I'd consider say.. <0.5% likely of flipping in my lifetime would be:

Maryland
Wyoming

If we increase the likelihood a bit, maybe I'd add:

Oklahoma
Massachusetts
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AN63093
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« Reply #36 on: July 31, 2017, 10:41:52 PM »
« Edited: July 31, 2017, 10:51:12 PM by AN63093 »

MT Treasurer, I'm curious why you have VA on your first map (a map you label with 99.9% confidence, which I know you're probably being mostly facetious about, but still), as opposed to a state like say, MD?

If we presume that the Fairfax County model is the wave of the future for the Dems, which in itself, I do not think is a particularly unreasonable prediction, then it would seem to me that this effect would be at least as equally pronounced, if not more so, in a state like MD.  Take, e.g., Montgomery Cty, places such as Bethesda, Rockville, and so on and so forth.

On top of that, consider that MD also has another large majority Black city (Baltimore) on top of that.  VA does have Richmond and Norfolk, but both combined are still smaller than Baltimore.  MD's Black population as a % of total population is about 10% larger than in VA.

VA is growing faster than MD, but not at such a significant rate and both states are growing.  Consider that Montgomery Cty is actually growing faster than Fairfax (and I think we know the demographics of those migrating in), and Prince George's is about equal to Fairfax (slightly less), though in fairness it should be noted that Loudoun is growing faster than all 3.  Additionally VA has a larger rural population, though neither state is particularly rural and are decreasingly so as time goes on.

Just something I was wondering.  I do find your pick of WV interesting as well, and was also considering picking it, but one reason for my hesitation would be that WV's change was so dramatic and so rapid that it leaves me to believe that there is a certain degree of elasticity in the state.  Even if it may be the case that given the current state of the Democratic Party, WV is an especially bad fit.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #37 on: August 01, 2017, 12:08:49 PM »

MT Treasurer, I'm curious why you have VA on your first map (a map you label with 99.9% confidence, which I know you're probably being mostly facetious about, but still), as opposed to a state like say, MD?

If we presume that the Fairfax County model is the wave of the future for the Dems, which in itself, I do not think is a particularly unreasonable prediction, then it would seem to me that this effect would be at least as equally pronounced, if not more so, in a state like MD.  Take, e.g., Montgomery Cty, places such as Bethesda, Rockville, and so on and so forth.

On top of that, consider that MD also has another large majority Black city (Baltimore) on top of that.  VA does have Richmond and Norfolk, but both combined are still smaller than Baltimore.  MD's Black population as a % of total population is about 10% larger than in VA.

VA is growing faster than MD, but not at such a significant rate and both states are growing.  Consider that Montgomery Cty is actually growing faster than Fairfax (and I think we know the demographics of those migrating in), and Prince George's is about equal to Fairfax (slightly less), though in fairness it should be noted that Loudoun is growing faster than all 3.  Additionally VA has a larger rural population, though neither state is particularly rural and are decreasingly so as time goes on.

Just something I was wondering.  I do find your pick of WV interesting as well, and was also considering picking it, but one reason for my hesitation would be that WV's change was so dramatic and so rapid that it leaves me to believe that there is a certain degree of elasticity in the state.  Even if it may be the case that given the current state of the Democratic Party, WV is an especially bad fit.

I tried to consider this, as well.  If WV can so drastically change its preferences in such a short time not so long ago, it's not out of the question it will do it again in my lifetime.  States like the Dakotas and Nebraska and Kansas, on the other hand, have riden the waive with the GOP regardless of its various forms and messages so long as the Party of Lincoln retained even the smallest shred of an "individualist" message, and I don't see that ever going away.
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dw93
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« Reply #38 on: August 01, 2017, 01:10:42 PM »

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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #39 on: August 01, 2017, 02:11:46 PM »

MT Treasurer, I'm curious why you have VA on your first map (a map you label with 99.9% confidence, which I know you're probably being mostly facetious about, but still), as opposed to a state like say, MD?

If we presume that the Fairfax County model is the wave of the future for the Dems, which in itself, I do not think is a particularly unreasonable prediction, then it would seem to me that this effect would be at least as equally pronounced, if not more so, in a state like MD.  Take, e.g., Montgomery Cty, places such as Bethesda, Rockville, and so on and so forth.

On top of that, consider that MD also has another large majority Black city (Baltimore) on top of that.  VA does have Richmond and Norfolk, but both combined are still smaller than Baltimore.  MD's Black population as a % of total population is about 10% larger than in VA.

VA is growing faster than MD, but not at such a significant rate and both states are growing.  Consider that Montgomery Cty is actually growing faster than Fairfax (and I think we know the demographics of those migrating in), and Prince George's is about equal to Fairfax (slightly less), though in fairness it should be noted that Loudoun is growing faster than all 3.  Additionally VA has a larger rural population, though neither state is particularly rural and are decreasingly so as time goes on.

Just something I was wondering.  I do find your pick of WV interesting as well, and was also considering picking it, but one reason for my hesitation would be that WV's change was so dramatic and so rapid that it leaves me to believe that there is a certain degree of elasticity in the state.  Even if it may be the case that given the current state of the Democratic Party, WV is an especially bad fit.

Great post. Yeah, I'm pretty sure VA (which is basically Maryland 1992 right now) will never vote Republican for president or Senate again in my lifetime. Maryland is already one of the most Democratic states in the country and almost maxed out for the Democrats, but you're right that there are hardly any signs of things "normalizing" there or the state trending a bit to the right, so I probably should have colored it red as well. I was simply being more cautious there, and remember - 50+ years can be an eternity in politics.

I was iffy on WV because I could see (a) the Eastern Panhandle (which right now is the most Republican part of the state in statewide races, but I don't think it will be in 50 years) growing and dramatically altering the state's politics (I know this seems incredibly implausible right now, but you never know) or - although I find that less likely - (b) the state switching again due to elasticity and some of the reasons you mentioned.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #40 on: August 01, 2017, 02:58:50 PM »

MT Treasurer, I'm curious why you have VA on your first map (a map you label with 99.9% confidence, which I know you're probably being mostly facetious about, but still), as opposed to a state like say, MD?

If we presume that the Fairfax County model is the wave of the future for the Dems, which in itself, I do not think is a particularly unreasonable prediction, then it would seem to me that this effect would be at least as equally pronounced, if not more so, in a state like MD.  Take, e.g., Montgomery Cty, places such as Bethesda, Rockville, and so on and so forth.

On top of that, consider that MD also has another large majority Black city (Baltimore) on top of that.  VA does have Richmond and Norfolk, but both combined are still smaller than Baltimore.  MD's Black population as a % of total population is about 10% larger than in VA.

VA is growing faster than MD, but not at such a significant rate and both states are growing.  Consider that Montgomery Cty is actually growing faster than Fairfax (and I think we know the demographics of those migrating in), and Prince George's is about equal to Fairfax (slightly less), though in fairness it should be noted that Loudoun is growing faster than all 3.  Additionally VA has a larger rural population, though neither state is particularly rural and are decreasingly so as time goes on.

Just something I was wondering.  I do find your pick of WV interesting as well, and was also considering picking it, but one reason for my hesitation would be that WV's change was so dramatic and so rapid that it leaves me to believe that there is a certain degree of elasticity in the state.  Even if it may be the case that given the current state of the Democratic Party, WV is an especially bad fit.

Great post. Yeah, I'm pretty sure VA (which is basically Maryland 1992 right now) will never vote Republican for president or Senate again in my lifetime. Maryland is already one of the most Democratic states in the country and almost maxed out for the Democrats, but you're right that there are hardly any signs of things "normalizing" there or the state trending a bit to the right, so I probably should have colored it red as well. I was simply being more cautious there, and remember - 50+ years can be an eternity in politics.

I was iffy on WV because I could see (a) the Eastern Panhandle (which right now is the most Republican part of the state in statewide races, but I don't think it will be in 50 years) growing and dramatically altering the state's politics (I know this seems incredibly implausible right now, but you never know) or - although I find that less likely - (b) the state switching again due to elasticity and some of the reasons you mentioned.

I think it's absurd to say that a state that Clinton won by 5.3% will never vote for a Republican again, I agree that it's unlikely to go red, but as things stand now, it would be one of the first blue states to flip in a GOP landslide. Perhaps in the next 20-30 years it becomes a D+15%-20% state instead of a D+5%-6% state though, we'll see.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #41 on: August 01, 2017, 04:02:05 PM »

Eh, I think Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, Colorado and probably even New Mexico all flip before VA. Sure, Republicans can make the state relatively close, but getting the last 1-3% on board would require a miracle and an implosion of the Democratic candidate's campaign. It's just not going to happen, especially given how polarized we are.

I agree, I think Virginia is very inelastic and a state like New Mexico (and plausibly even Rhode Island) would be more likely to flip, and also, it's not implausible that Democrats start doing as well in NOVA as they are currently doing in the Maryland counties bordering DC, and once that happens, Virginia is titanium blue forever, barring a 50 state GOP landslide. but at the same time, I think that an exceptional GOP candidate vs a poor Democratic candidate would lead to VA going red, at least in 2020 or 2024... by 2028 it'll likely be too far gone for a Republican to win it even if they're an exceptional candidate.
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AN63093
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« Reply #42 on: August 01, 2017, 06:27:35 PM »
« Edited: August 01, 2017, 06:31:03 PM by AN63093 »

I think Texarkana has a good point on this- and it's why I chose MD as one of my "never flip in my lifetime" states, but not VA, at least not yet.  I do agree with you MT, that VA is inelastic and polarized and perhaps increasingly so as time goes on, and there are a slew of other states I would expect to flip before VA (people that claim that VA is a toss-up state, or even a swing state, I do not think are paying particularly close attention to what is going on).

But that being said, the margin is narrow enough, there are still enough GOP voters in the state, and its flip was recent enough, that I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that in a stars-aligned, GOP landslide scenario that the GOP could win VA in a "last gasp," so to speak.  Sort of a Bush in '88 or Clinton in '96 type outcome.  Don't get me wrong, I do not think this is likely.  Just that I can envision the scenario- whereas, I cannot envision a realistic scenario where states like MD and MA flip, even in landslides.  Of course, this landslide, if it were to occur, would have to happen soon, since VA may become completely un-flippable in a cycle or two.


@MT Treasurer

You have an interesting point in regards to WV- right now the eastern panhandle is growing, in fact, it's the only part of the state that's really growing outside of Morgantown.  I have to do some more research into this area, but most of the growth is in Berkeley Cty and in Jefferson Cty, which is part of the DC MSA obviously... which always seemed a bit silly to me.  I've never heard of anyone actually doing that commute, but that's only anecdotal and I suppose people must be doing it, since the MARC goes all the way up through Harpers Ferry to Martinsburg.  It's over 90 min by train if you do that commute, which sounds absolutely ghastly and unacceptable to me, but then again, when I was still living in NY I knew people that did something similar from the far reaches of Westchester and CT.  So perhaps it's only a matter of time, especially given the DC MSA is growing rapidly.
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« Reply #43 on: August 01, 2017, 06:37:29 PM »

Never say never.

Though I'd imagine most the Interior Plains states (many of which haven't voted Democrat since LBJ's landslide win in 64') probably stay in the GOP column for the foreseeable future.

As for states that stay Democrat, I have a hard time imaging the GOP winning California and Maryland in the next 30 years.
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AN63093
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« Reply #44 on: August 01, 2017, 06:58:37 PM »
« Edited: August 01, 2017, 07:01:52 PM by AN63093 »

I tried to consider this, as well.  If WV can so drastically change its preferences in such a short time not so long ago, it's not out of the question it will do it again in my lifetime.  States like the Dakotas and Nebraska and Kansas, on the other hand, have riden the waive with the GOP regardless of its various forms and messages so long as the Party of Lincoln retained even the smallest shred of an "individualist" message, and I don't see that ever going away.

I agree with you, and that is why I picked WY and OK first, as least likely to flip, as opposed to states such as WV or KY.  The next on my list might be ND, or maybe NE.  I think I am a little less confident about SD or KS, though not significantly so.

These states all have either no large metro area, or in some cases, few metro areas at all (OK does have OKC, the only MSA in the US top 50 in this region, although KS has a portion of the KC metro).  Most of these states are growing very slowly (only the Dakotas are above the US average, I believe).  I don't have statistical data on this unfortunately, but I suspect migration into these states from places like CA is very minimal, so the likelihood of a Colorado type situation seems quite low.  Industries in this region include agri-business, ranching, oil/gas, and so on, and I'm not sure any of these have ever really been Dem-leaning industries, especially the latter two.  

These plains states are also more ancestrally Republican, though I hesitate to bring this up since I'm not sure how relevant it is- after all, it is something of a fallacy to assume prior results will causally dictate future results.  But I suppose it's worth mentioning that none of these states have been competitive (outside of 1964) since 1948, and Dewey still won the Dakotas and NE/KS.  OK was competitive in 1976, that is the other exception I'm aware of.

So states like WV or KY, although it seems extremely unlikely given the current margins, and I would certainly not predict this to happen; I could envision scenarios with a tailor-made candidate and the right messaging at least making those states more competitive.  These scenarios may have a chance of less than 5% say, but I can still envision them.  Whereas a state like WY- I don't think it would flip in anything short of a complete realignment where the GOP bares absolutely no resemblance to the current party.
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« Reply #45 on: August 01, 2017, 07:47:21 PM »

I don't think we can conclusively ever say that a state won't vote one way or the other.  I still believe given the right circumstances national landslides and realignments are possible. Even Obama in Indiana came out of left field.
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« Reply #46 on: August 02, 2017, 10:12:38 AM »

Is everybody totally writing off the possibility of another 1912 at some point in our lives? Something like that could totally screw up any conventional wisdom we have about trends. Woodrow Wilson won Idaho with 32% of the vote in that state...something like that could flip MD or WY in the right circumstance.
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AN63093
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« Reply #47 on: August 03, 2017, 09:47:25 PM »

Is everybody totally writing off the possibility of another 1912 at some point in our lives? Something like that could totally screw up any conventional wisdom we have about trends. Woodrow Wilson won Idaho with 32% of the vote in that state...something like that could flip MD or WY in the right circumstance.

Good question, twenty42, and that's actually something I haven't considered.

Since there is a fairly significant divide between factions in both major parties right now, I would say the risks of a 1912 are increasing.  In fact, 2020 might be the best chance of a "1912" that we've had in a long time, certainly in my lifetime.

The chances are still pretty low, however.  I would argue the two wings of the GOP were a little more distinct in that time with a deeper rift, and on top of that, there isn't a highly popular, well known, charismatic figure that is leading the Never Trumpers at the moment, at least in the same way that Roosevelt led the Progressives.
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« Reply #48 on: August 03, 2017, 10:18:29 PM »

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AN63093
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« Reply #49 on: August 03, 2017, 10:50:32 PM »

LA and MS before WY, or ND, or OK?

OR?  Before NY, or WA, or VT, or MD?

And MN is a swing state, LOL.

Very confused.
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