"Broken Halos" - A 2020 Timeline

[Wells]

Will Mike actually make it all the way through this time?

Regardless, I was hyping it up on IRC all day. so I guess I'll begin with none other than Hillary Clinton.


Hillary had no interest in running for president again. She did have an interest in who was. Every day she would talk to her friends in the DNC over the phone (she avoided sending emails) and tried to get what they knew. Unfortunately for her, the current DNC officers weren't too eager to give her information. Finally, one day in April, after four candidates had already announced, she heard from a friend who had heard from a DNC official who had heard from another DNC official who had heard from a Massachusetts reporter who had heard from a source close to Elizabeth Warren that she was very close to running for president. The information turned out to be incorrect after a few months, but the buzz with Warren was strong in early 2019, much stronger than it had been four years earlier. Partly because most polls showed her as the front runner, but also because she had become the single most vocal critic of the Donald Trump, whose approval ratings in 2019 hovered around 40% at the highest, and his administration.

The conventional wisdom was that no Democrat could mess up against this candidate after four years of failures in the courts and in Congress, as the FBI investigations were sure to catch something any day now, and as economic growth was beginning to slow. It was a recipe for a landslide in a year and a half. And that was the conventional wisdom among most pundits and the media.

Bit of background:

In 2018, the Democrats took the House with 222 seats, and Republicans made minor gains in the Senate (to the tune of Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota), though the Democrats won Nevada and came within one half of a percent of taking out Jeff Flake in Arizona.

The FBI investigations into Donald Trump were slowed by his replacement FBI director (which caused quite a stir and with AHCA may have helped Democrats take the House), but still managed to move along with new findings every few months and leaks every few weeks. However, the polarizing nature of the case meant nothing ever came into fruition, at least not as of April 2019.

Coming soon: Who's running and who isn't.

[Wells]

So you already know that Elizabeth Warren isn't running, but what about the others?


While Hillary Clinton prepared a friendly tweet about Warren that she would never get the chance to post, Keith Ellison and Tom Perez had different ideas about how the DNC should run the primaries. Ellison wanted real change in the DNC and had wanted it for nearly two years at this point, while Perez was of the opinion that lip service would suffice. Ellison, in his role, couldn't do anything for the Committee and Perez was refusing to listen to his ideas, so he decided the solution would be to send daily emails to members of the DNC. In three separate emails in April, he specifically mentioned the 2016 primary and told them not to use the DNC to further any certain candidate's campaign.

Surprisingly, they listened to him. Until the candidates actually started announcing. However, none of the DNC officials could agree on a candidate to support. The lack of a pre-primary consensus meant that a multitude of candidates sprang up from March until July, starting with Martin O'Malley, whose announcement tripled his poll numbers to three percent. Most of the DNC ignored him. They were more interested in Kamala Harris, the second candidate to make an announcement and even held a national poll lead for the first month. But as each candidate announced, some more DNC officials went to support them only to be distracted by the next flawless beautiful candidate. Kirsten Gillibrand? Endorsed. Cory Booker? No, wait, he's the one. Jason Kander? Eh, no.

In the midst of all the real candidate announcements, speculation persisted. Sanders, Warren, Biden, and Michelle all had to deny multiple times that they were running. Yet the people that got the most speculation were the possible celebrity candidates, from Mark Zuckerberg to Oprah Winfrey. What better way to defeat a former reality TV show host than a candidate of similar caliber? However, none of them announced. Mark Cuban came the closest, but eventually he decided against it for two reasons. The first was that national primary polls showed him with very low numbers. The second was that a conversation was leaked between him and Tom Perez where Perez asked him not to run and he disagreed. He very strongly disagreed. After making a Washington Post headline with that, Cuban announced his intentions to not, in fact, run on the same day Julian Castro announced his intentions to run.

The progressive wing of the party needed a candidate to get behind with the lack of Warren and Sanders, so Tulsi Gabbard's announcement was met with a warm welcome in left-leaning media outlets and the polls. Al Franken's announcement on May 8 was overshadowed by Sherrod Brown's campaign kickoff that same day. And to get this exposition over with, the rest of the candidates are: Jerry Brown, Andrew Cuomo, Tim Kaine, Tammy Duckworth, Jim Webb, and Russ Feingold. (I know all of those seem like they warrant entire sentences, but the ones that did get sentences are more important.)

What about a Republican primary challenge to Trump?

It didn't happen. For all his unpopularity, at the lowest he still had a 75% approval rating among Republicans. No candidate could beat him in the primary. Yet in the general election. . .

Coming soon: Details about the Trump presidency.

[Wells]

So I've given this TL a title as a nod to a song I like (and a hint at the story). So what do you guys think so far?

[Mike Thick]

This is great! Keep it up.

[Wells]

I'd better finish this timeline quickly, or else it may last longer than Donald Trump's presidency. Speaking of which, how was it in this timeline?


Donald Trump had very few successes during his time as president. In June 2019, his biggest "successes" were still the nomination of Neil Gorsuch and the 2018 budget, which included a provision to build a wall on sections of the U.S. - Mexico border. Trump was obviously especially proud of the wall, bringing it up in nearly every interview and rally he did. (Despite the wall being only ten feet high and having a total length of 250 miles.) In one rally on June 2, when he officially kicked off his reelection bid, he bragged about the wall:

"They said, the media said I wouldn't have a wall. They said it couldn't be built. It wouldn't pass Congress. It wouldn't stop the immigrants. And you know what? They were wrong again. I built the wall. It's big. It's beautiful. And let me tell you, there aren't any illegal immigrants going around that."

There were other areas where Trump appeared to be succeeding. Whether Trump was actually the reason for the success was up to debate, but he eagerly took credit for the lower crime rates in Chicago and the rest of the U.S. and though AHCA failed in the Senate twice, somehow "considerable progress" had been made. He would also often bring up the still low unemployment rate, especially the big gains in manufacturing jobs.

However, the rumors of Russian connections within the Trump administration bogged him down, exacerbated by his quick temper and carelessness. Furthermore, easily preventable scandals left few quiet moments for the White House. In October 2018, for example, he was involved with a scandal with a foreign ambassador and Carter Page, but by late November it had turned out to be exaggerated.

Overall, Trump looked very easy to defeat in an election. His approval rating was 40% at the highest and had been very unsuccessful in the eyes of most people. The Democrats were all too eager to take advantage of this, and in a field of fifteen, it looked like each of them could win in 2020.

National Primary Polling (June 2019)
Kamala Harris 17%
Sherrod Brown 12%
Tulsi Gabbard 9%
Andrew Cuomo 9%
Jerry Brown 8%
Cory Booker 7%
Al Franken 6%
Kirsten Gillibrand 4%
Russ Feingold 3%
Julian Castro 3%
Tim Kaine 3%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Tammy Duckworth 1%
Jason Kander 1%
Jim Webb 0%

Coming soon: The early stages of the primary

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

1. Who is backing Coumo?
2. Is Russ Feingold actually running in the primary?
3. I imagine that Kander isn't going to stay in long. I don't see how he breaks out of the looow single digits. Is this an accurate view?

[Wells]

1. Who is backing Coumo?

As a governor of one of the largest Democratic states, he has a lot of name recognition (and money), and to add to that he has some support within the establishment.

2. Is Russ Feingold actually running in the primary?

Yes.

3. I imagine that Kander isn't going to stay in long. I don't see how he breaks out of the looow single digits. Is this an accurate view?

No spoilers

[CapoteMonster]

How did the 2018 Governor's races go?

[Wells]

Will Mike actually make it all the way through this time?

I hope so.

Anyway, it's back!

How did the 2018 Governor's races go?

Oh I needed to mention that. Democrats picked up Ohio, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Maine, and Illinois in order of margin. Republicans made no pickups.
 
At this point, even a semi-successful Trump presidency looks unlikely, but let's see where this goes.
 

Jerry Brown was stunned as he watched MSNBC discuss their new poll. His internals had shown him in trouble as June continued, but this new poll had him at five percent, his support cut in half from their May poll. He hoped the poll was an outlier, but he knew that it wasn't. Soon he'd be among Kaine, Webb, and Kander. That is, if he stayed in that long. He decided to ask his advisers what to do.

Why was Brown losing his support? The answer was simple: his support was weak. Strong support only made up about 10-15% of his overall support in most polls, and as other candidates made appearances in the media coverage and the top 5 in Iowa or New Hampshire, he was conspicuously absent no matter how hard he tried. Jerry Brown's time just wasn't 2020 - or anytime. And so his supporters abandoned him for other governors or other Browns.


One candidate with a strong base was Tulsi Gabbard. This was evident as she pulled huge crowds into arenas or high school gymnasiums and CNN would have a panel to discuss her supposed momentum, which became a self-fulfilling prophecy. Gabbard was thrilled. She loved the attention and the crowds. If her rise in the polls continued, she'd be the presumptive nominee right after South Carolina. Her internals were already showing her ahead in New Hampshire, and beginning to give Harris a run for her money in South Carolina.

Gabbard stepped out in front a record size crowd in Charleston ahead of the first debate. She smiled and started her stump speech: "Friends, we are here today for one simple reason. We believe that the future can be a better place. Many of you have already chosen that you will vote for the best candidate to bring you that future. Yet to those who are not yet convinced, I urge you to listen to what I have to say. . . " She continued on, loving every second of applause after the important statements.


The day before the first debate, Jim Webb dropped out.


National Primary Polling (September 2019)
Kamala Harris 16% (-1)
Tulsi Gabbard 13% (+4)
Sherrod Brown 11% (-1)
Cory Booker 8% (+1)
Andrew Cuomo 7% (-2)
Al Franken 6% (=)
Kirsten Gillibrand 5% (+1)
Jerry Brown 4% (-4)
Tim Kaine 4% (+1)
Russ Feingold 3% (=)
Julian Castro 2% (-1)
Tammy Duckworth 2% (+1)
Martin O'Malley 1% (-1)
Jason Kander 1% (=)

[Wells]

The First Debate

The first debate was viewed by 11.9 million people on NBC. This was the consensus based on polling and pundits in the aftermath.

Winners
Andrew Cuomo - Cuomo successfully pointed to his progressive accomplishments as governor of New York and appeared polished while doing so.
Al Franken - His witty comments and one-liners served him well.
Kamala Harris - She solidified her front runner status by appearing the most knowledgeable on policy, and responded to attacks from the left decently. However, she didn't shake them off completely.
Kirsten Gillibrand - She was energetic and well-spoken, but at the same time she didn't have enough substance in her responses.

Losers
Martin O'Malley - He was very boring, but at least he kept coming up with creative disses at Trump.
Jerry Brown - He seemed flustered a few times and didn't seem to do anything to reverse his floundering poll numbers.
Julian Castro - His answers were vague and at some points obviously rehearsed.
Tulsi Gabbard - As the rising star, she did well in the first part of the debate - then was attacked on her coziness with Trump and other things, and did not rebut well at all.

You can use your imagination to guess exactly what happened in the debate, I'm too lazy to write anything else on it. But I can continue the story.


Kelly watched Trump receive his daily intelligence briefing. The officials that gave it to him stuck around for a few seconds, during which Trump looked at the briefing, appearing to read it. But because Kelly had a suspicion, he looked at Trump's eyes. They didn't move side to side across the paper. They stayed stationary. He was just staring at the paper pretending to read. When the officials left the room, he set down the pages and took out his phone. Kelly's suspicions were confirmed.

It had started about a month earlier in a cabinet meeting, when Kelly had referenced something he knew for a fact was in the very first paragraph of Trump's briefing. Trump had no idea what he was talking about. Yet despite Kelly's inquiries, Trump had always assured him that he was reading the briefings. He had said so as recently as the day before.

Kelly took a deep breath and approached Trump. "Why aren't you reading your intelligence briefing?" He asked. Trump looked up mid-Tweet, looked Kelly in the eye and said, "I finished reading it." Kelly was taken aback by this obvious lie. After a few seconds of silence Trump went back to finishing his Tweet.


Jason Kander and Julian Castro dropped out in October.


Al Franken sat in his tour bus, watching TV. His campaign had replaced Gabbard's as the rising progressive star. He was ecstatic as CNN revealed a new Iowa poll that placed him just 3 points behind Kamala, 1 point behind Brown, and ahead of Tulsi Gabbard. He was being used as a plot device just to reveal that poll, so he doesn't matter after that.


I just want to skip to Iowa, but I'll do a December debate first. At the rate this timeline is going, we'll see it in two months. Unless someone wants to give me motivation to continue.


National Primary Polling (November 2019)
Kamala Harris 16% (=)
Sherrod Brown 11% (=)
Tulsi Gabbard 11% (-2)
Al Franken 10% (+4)
Andrew Cuomo 9% (+2)
Cory Booker 8% (+1)
Kirsten Gillibrand 7% (+2)
Tammy Duckworth 4% (+2)
Tim Kaine 3% (-1)
Jerry Brown 3% (-1)
Russ Feingold 2% (-1)
Martin O'Malley 1% (-1)

Iowa Caucus Poll (November 2019)
Kamala Harris 15%
Sherrod Brown 13%
Al Franken 12%
Andrew Cuomo 9%
Tulsi Gabbard 9%
Kirsten Gillibrand 8%
Tammy Duckworth 7%
Cory Booker 6%
Russ Feingold 4%
Tim Kaine 2%
Jerry Brown 1%
Martin O'Malley 0%

What do you guys think of this timeline?

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

I like it.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I like it.