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| | |-+  Nov. 2017 general election predictions?
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Author Topic: Nov. 2017 general election predictions?  (Read 6683 times)
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Spark498
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« Reply #50 on: June 07, 2017, 12:03:17 am »
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VA-GOV
50% Perriello (D)
47% Gillespie (R)

NJ-GOV
56% Murphy (D)
43% Guadagno (R)

New York Mayor
72% DeBlasio (D)
« Last Edit: June 07, 2017, 12:04:48 am by Spark498 »Logged





2020

President: Trump

Political Spectrum:
Economic: +1.47 (Centrist)
Social: 0.14 (Libertarian)
Foreign Policy: 4.52 (Neo-Con)
Cultural: 5.91 (Conservative)
Bagel23
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« Reply #51 on: June 07, 2017, 12:02:35 pm »
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VA-GOV
49% Northam (D)
47% Gillespie (R)

VA-LT GOV
50% Fairfax (D)
46% Vogel (R)

VA-AT GEN
52% Herring (D)
45% Adams (R)

NJ-GOV
59% Murphy (D)
37% Guadagno (R)

New York Mayor
70% DeBlasio (D)
« Last Edit: July 25, 2017, 12:26:10 am by Bagel23 »Logged

I'm a Southern Blue-Dog Democrat... one of the few still left...

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Del Tachi
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« Reply #52 on: June 07, 2017, 12:12:31 pm »
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VA-GOV
52% Northam
45% Gillespie

NJ-GOV
59% Murphy
39% Guadango
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2017/18 Gubernatorial Endorsements:
AL - Kay Ivey (R)
CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
ID - Brad Little (R)
MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
Cory Booker
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« Reply #53 on: June 11, 2017, 10:53:51 am »
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VA GOV
Tom Perriello 52-42%


NJ Gov
Patrick Murphy 59-39%
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President:
S-NJ Cory Booker
P-OH Tim Ryan

Gubernatorial election
S-NJ Phil Murphy
P-VA Ralph Northam

Senatorial election
S-NV Rosen
L-MI Kid Rock😂
S-OH Sherrod Brown
TP-AZ Kelli Ward elected
AKCreative
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« Reply #54 on: June 14, 2017, 11:38:25 am »
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53% Northam
45% Gillespie

59% Murphy
39% Guadango
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Delegate Vern
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« Reply #55 on: June 17, 2017, 08:50:22 am »
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49% Gillespie
48% Northam


57% Murphy
40% Guadango
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MB
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« Reply #56 on: June 21, 2017, 10:54:39 pm »
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NJ:
54% Murphy
40% Guadagno

VA:
48% Northam
47% Gillespie
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I'm still feeling the Bern.

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ENDORSEMENTS
AL-Gov: Walter Maddox (D)
CA-Gov: John Cox (R)
FL-Gov: John Morgan (D)
MD-Gov: Ben Jealous (D)/Larry Hogan (R)
NJ-Gov: Seth Kaper-Dale (G)
OK-Gov: Gary Richardson (R)
OR-Gov: Kate Brown (D)

AL-Sen: Doug Jones (D)
NV-Sen: Jesse Sbaih (D)
TX-Sen: Beto O'Rourke (D)
VT-Sen: Bernie Sanders (I)
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« Reply #57 on: June 22, 2017, 09:09:32 am »
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Guadagno is going down worse than Buono. Christie + Trump = NJ electing a ham sandwich by +20 points as long as theirs a D in front of it on the ballot.
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« Reply #58 on: June 30, 2017, 10:55:57 pm »
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New Jersey

Murphy 65%
Guagdano 33%

Virginia

Northam 51%
Gillespie 47%

New York City Mayor

De Blasio 64%
Malliotakis 35%

Bonus-Alabama Senate

Republican (Mo Brooks) 60%
Democrat (Doug Jones) 40%
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Religious nuts like Roy Moore should face the biblical punishments for blasphemy, as what they say and do is a perversion of their God's will.
Dave Leip
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« Reply #59 on: July 15, 2017, 10:54:29 am »

The 2017 General Election Predictions are now open at:
Link

Enjoy,
Dave
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #60 on: July 15, 2017, 10:59:19 am »
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The 2017 General Election Predictions are now open at:
Link

Enjoy,
Dave

Thanks Dave.

On another topic, can you take away my global deletion powers and give them to Modadmin Muon2?:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=256

Don't mean to hijack the thread, but I emailed you about this some time ago, and didn't get a response, so I figured posting in a thread where you just posted a few minutes ago might get your attention.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #61 on: July 15, 2017, 11:13:24 am »

The 2017 General Election Predictions are now open at:
Link

Enjoy,
Dave

Thanks Dave.

On another topic, can you take away my global deletion powers and give them to Modadmin Muon2?:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=256

Don't mean to hijack the thread, but I emailed you about this some time ago, and didn't get a response, so I figured posting in a thread where you just posted a few minutes ago might get your attention.


Thanks - this is done.
Best,
Dave
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #62 on: July 15, 2017, 05:02:09 pm »
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The 2017 General Election Predictions are now open at:
Link

Enjoy,
Dave

Thanks Dave.

On another topic, can you take away my global deletion powers and give them to Modadmin Muon2?:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=256

Don't mean to hijack the thread, but I emailed you about this some time ago, and didn't get a response, so I figured posting in a thread where you just posted a few minutes ago might get your attention.


Thanks - this is done.
Best,
Dave

Thank you!
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My magnum opus is now complete.  Read the complete "The Adventures of Hobo Orgy Guy & Blondie" (now in paperback).

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Cory Booker
olawakandi
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« Reply #63 on: August 01, 2017, 10:14:02 pm »
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VA GOV
Ralph Northam 50-48%


NJ Gov
Patrick Murphy 59-39%


Still VA tilts D and solid for Murphy in VA
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President:
S-NJ Cory Booker
P-OH Tim Ryan

Gubernatorial election
S-NJ Phil Murphy
P-VA Ralph Northam

Senatorial election
S-NV Rosen
L-MI Kid Rock😂
S-OH Sherrod Brown
TP-AZ Kelli Ward elected
Ted Bessell
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« Reply #64 on: August 11, 2017, 08:11:35 pm »
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Virginia Gubernatorial
Gillespie 49%, Northam 47%

New Jersey:
Phil Murphy 61%, Kim Guadagno 37%

Subject to change, of course. I don't even know why I'm bothering, since I've never predicted a major election correctly.
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Al gore is fake news
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« Reply #65 on: August 29, 2017, 12:13:32 pm »
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Virginia (Lean D)
New Jersey (Likely D)
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I always go by a strict no tossup policy when making predictions.
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« Reply #66 on: August 29, 2017, 01:43:42 pm »
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VA:

Northam 50-47
Fairfax 52-47
Herring 57-39

Dems +11 in HoD

NJ:

Murphy 60-38

Dems gain supermajority in Assembly, fall one seat shy in Senate

NYC:

De Blasio 75-21

Seattle:

Durkan 51-49 (I'd like for Moon to win but Think Durkan narrowly takes it)

WA SD45:

Dhingra 54-46, Dems retake WA State Senate

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« Reply #67 on: August 29, 2017, 01:49:26 pm »
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VA:

Northam 50-47
Fairfax 52-47
Herring 57-39

Dems +11 in HoD

NJ:

Murphy 60-38

Dems gain supermajority in Assembly, fall one seat shy in Senate

NYC:

De Blasio 75-21

Seattle:

Durkan 51-49 (I'd like for Moon to win but Think Durkan narrowly takes it)

WA SD45:

Dhingra 54-46, Dems retake WA State Senate


No offense but that doesn't seem compatible a +3 Northal victory with a +11 house districts. Remember Mcauliffe won by the same margin and the House was still 67-33
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Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates
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KingSweden
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« Reply #68 on: August 29, 2017, 05:01:35 pm »
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VA:

Northam 50-47
Fairfax 52-47
Herring 57-39

Dems +11 in HoD

NJ:

Murphy 60-38

Dems gain supermajority in Assembly, fall one seat shy in Senate

NYC:

De Blasio 75-21

Seattle:

Durkan 51-49 (I'd like for Moon to win but Think Durkan narrowly takes it)

WA SD45:

Dhingra 54-46, Dems retake WA State Senate


No offense but that doesn't seem compatible a +3 Northal victory with a +11 house districts. Remember Mcauliffe won by the same margin and the House was still 67-33

Observationally, recruitment/retirements favor Dems more this year than '13 or '15
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Virginia
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« Reply #69 on: August 29, 2017, 05:24:17 pm »

No offense but that doesn't seem compatible a +3 Northal victory with a +11 house districts. Remember Mcauliffe won by the same margin and the House was still 67-33

Observationally, recruitment/retirements favor Dems more this year than '13 or '15

It actually fits with the idea that gubernatorial races can be notably less influenced by the national party, but with legislative elections where candidates aren't that well-known being overly influenced by the national environment, which studies do show evidence of. In Virginia's case, you could assume then that the electorate is pretty overwhelmingly leaning towards Democrats this cycle, but that Gillespie has been effective in separating himself from his party's national brand.

Personally, I think Northam will win by more, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was as close as you suggested.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #70 on: August 30, 2017, 05:27:31 pm »
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No offense but that doesn't seem compatible a +3 Northal victory with a +11 house districts. Remember Mcauliffe won by the same margin and the House was still 67-33

Observationally, recruitment/retirements favor Dems more this year than '13 or '15

It actually fits with the idea that gubernatorial races can be notably less influenced by the national party, but with legislative elections where candidates aren't that well-known being overly influenced by the national environment, which studies do show evidence of. In Virginia's case, you could assume then that the electorate is pretty overwhelmingly leaning towards Democrats this cycle, but that Gillespie has been effective in separating himself from his party's national brand.

Personally, I think Northam will win by more, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was as close as you suggested.

I think Northam wins too - but I've been burned prediction-wise many times over the last 2 years, so I'm being conservative here
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Wolverine22
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« Reply #71 on: September 07, 2017, 10:42:29 am »
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VA:
Northam 50%
Gillespie: 48%
Other: 2%

NJ:
Murphy: 65%
Guadagno: 32%
Other: 3%
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« Reply #72 on: September 10, 2017, 08:43:01 am »
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VA:
Northam 50%
Gillespie: 44%
Hyra: 6%

NJ:
Murphy: 62%
Guadagno: 35%
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Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #73 on: September 11, 2017, 06:19:36 pm »
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Alright take it to the bank on these results
Virginia's races
ED GILLESPIE 48.72%
RALPH NORTHAM 48.31%

JILL VOGEL 48.26%
JUSTIN FAIRFAX 51.05%

JOHN ADAMS 47.84%
MARK HERRING 50.43%
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I Will gladly Support Dino Rossi In His Race For Washington's 8th Congressional District.
Also join me in supporting Roy Moore in Alabama and Ed Gillespie in Virginia!
Bagel23
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« Reply #74 on: September 11, 2017, 07:19:22 pm »
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Alright take it to the bank on these results
Virginia's races
ED GILLESPIE 48.72%
RALPH NORTHAM 48.31%

JILL VOGEL 48.26%
JUSTIN FAIRFAX 51.05%

JOHN ADAMS 47.84%
MARK HERRING 50.43%


That's quite a bold prediction there friend. Yet, it is still within the realm of possibility, hopefully you are wrong though.
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I'm a Southern Blue-Dog Democrat... one of the few still left...

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