Trump

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Cointoss between one term or two (I agree that not enough lessons have been learned, but hell he barely won this time). He'll run for re-election, and serve if elected though.

I expect him to completely check out of actual leadership at some time in the next two years or so, and leave the Administration to be run by a four person group of Pence, Sessions, Bannon (if he's not gone), and Ivanka/Jared. He'll be in it for golf, rallies, and leaving spicy quotes for the press.

[Shadows]

This is sorcery & fortune teller business - He is 100 days into his business, how are people supposed to guess?

These stuff - 1 or 2 tem etc - People will have some idea around the mid-terms, after a full 2 years, seeing his performance & how independents & part of his base reacts (who can leave him as most of the Democrats are already very against him).

[Sir Mohamed]

The odds are 50/50 and any predictions are wishful thinking by either side.

The election will be determined by factors that are not known yet:

- The Democratic nominee and the unity of Democrats in general
- The economic situation in the fall of 2020
- Trump's popularity (unlikely that he picks up much more support, but who knows?).
- Foreign or domestic crisis (terrorist attack etc.)
- Outcome of Russiagate and potential future scandals
- Campaign performance (gaffes etc.)
- Voter turnout and mobilization

^ I agree with this analysis.

I really can't imagine that we'll stuck with the clown for another 3+ years and he still manages to win reelection. If he continues the way (and we know he won't change) he did in the first 100 days, his approval must be at 30% at best in 2020. But who knows? I couldn't imagine in my wildest dreams that Trump would anywhere near the White House. So, who the heck knows? I wouldn't be surpised if he wins again with a PV loss.

[emailking]

The odds are 50/50 and any predictions are wishful thinking by either side.

The election will be determined by factors that are not known yet:

- The Democratic nominee and the unity of Democrats in general
- The economic situation in the fall of 2020
- Trump's popularity (unlikely that he picks up much more support, but who knows?).
- Foreign or domestic crisis (terrorist attack etc.)
- Outcome of Russiagate and potential future scandals
- Campaign performance (gaffes etc.)
- Voter turnout and mobilization

It will depend on those things (and possibly others), but it's not 50/50. That's an oversimplification.

It can't be both a random coin toss and also non-trivially dependent on a number of factors that are difficult to quantify. Or at least, it would be extremely unlikely to be both.

[7,052,770]

He'll lose. The snowflakes have learned their lesson and will turn out in high numbers for any Democratic nominee.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Two terms. The Dems have shown themselves utterly incapable of running even a half way competent campaign.